Pacqiuao vs Mayweather: a serious compubox analysis

[pugay_kamay]

This is what you call NUMERICAL ANALYSIS.

Pull, maybe you can create this kind of stats analysis for:

Floyd vs Shane
Pac vs Shane


Thanks!

[bt16]

I like your analysis but please answer me this honestly.. Has Mayweather improve or diminished since he fought Judah back in early 2006??? I seem to be a lot of "Pacquaio has improved since the JMM fight" even though the fight happened in 2008...

thanks man. i'm not saying that mayweather diminished.. but it's hard to say that he's improved due to his inactivity in the ring, while pacquiao has been picking off some of the bigger names in the sport in amazing fashion. mayweather's inactivity may be one of the largest factors that hinders his performance in the ring against pacquiao, but he didnt show too much ring rust against marquez so it's really hard to tell if he's improved greatly since his last fight. lets hope that this fight just happens so we can find out once and for al

[!! Shawn]

pacman has no defense and will be in with the best counter puncher in the buisness....this fight will be "gatti" like

Is he fighting Ivan Claderon or something?

[The Gambler1981]

Hatton and dlh fought them both



Well look at my calculations and prove them wrong then, don't just make some generalizations

What's so hard about pressing a button whenever some lands or misses a punch?

Even a child knows how 2 do that.

The whole reason why the olympics changed the scoring was because of the many robberies. I'm not saying boxing should adopt olympic scoring and that's not even the subject of the thread.

Eventually quality of the punches will effect the quantity of punches, by either effecting a stoppage or forcing the opponent to get overly defensive and stop throwing punches

My points all stand, I dont feel like bothering with looking at how many punches get thrown by Floyds opponentswhen they face Floyd and when they face others guys. I would venture a guess that they throw less against Floyd then on average.

Neither guy is an average opponent so comparing averages is pretty meaningless~, not worth my time to come up with an analysis to prove my point I am faily sure I can twist numbers with the best of them~

If a child can press a button why do people have such a problem with Olympic scoring? Punchstats are the exact same concept and everyone rails Olympic scoring, it all depends on the eye of the beholder what a "landed" punch is so it is not a hard statistic.

[R.Winky Wright]

You made an analysis based on numbers. I can't express how ****** that is.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA read your own sentence!

What would you make an analysis with, potatoes?!!!?

HAHAHA

[PAKYO]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA read your own sentence!

What would you make an analysis with, potatoes?!!!?

HAHAHA

LMAO!!

Good catch! but i still respect that guy even if he's becoming a ***** day by day.

[Pullcounter]

This is what you call NUMERICAL ANALYSIS.

Pull, maybe you can create this kind of stats analysis for:

Floyd vs Shane
Pac vs Shane


Thanks!

can't I don't have the stats for shane

[Pullcounter]

My points all stand, I dont feel like bothering with looking at how many punches get thrown by Floyds opponentswhen they face Floyd and when they face others guys. I would venture a guess that they throw less against Floyd then on average.

welll if you don't do the work then you don't have numbers to support your argument, all you have is a hypothesis.

In any case, floyd's defensive tactics such as running and clinching negates both their offenses, not just pac's, so ultimately, pac will still be throwing more punches than floyd will, and therefore still outlanding floyd.

sorry *****s.

Neither guy is an average opponent so comparing averages is pretty meaningless~, not worth my time to come up with an analysis to prove my point I am faily sure I can twist numbers with the best of them~

This argument about averages is not a real argument at all. these are floyd's and pac's average punch stats, it has nothing to do with their status as boxing's best boxers.

if you think I'm twisting the numbers then show me how I'm twisting them, don't just say that I'm twisting them and think you've won the argument. that's unintellectual. I understand that you're too lazy to crunch the numbers themselves, but by default that means my argument still stands.

If a child can press a button why do people have such a problem with Olympic scoring? Punchstats are the exact same concept and everyone rails Olympic scoring,

I don't think you understand why olympic scoring is bad. It's bad because boxers stop punching hard and just play a game of tag. but that has nothing to do with this analysis because pac is trying to KO his opponents, I suspect floyd wants to put the hurt on his opponents as well, but based on his style you'd think he was playing tag as well.

it all depends on the eye of the beholder what a "landed" punch is so it is not a hard statistic.

WRONG! even a child knows when a punch is landed... what real boxing fans don't like is that punch stats don't capture the quality of the punches.

but I have already addressed this in a previous post, eventually quality of punches will force a stoppage or a dramatic reduction of punch output from the opponent.

example: cotto was throwing a lot of punches early w/ pac, but once he got knocked down and gassed, his punch output dropped dramatically.

my analysis still stands, because *****s won't engage the numbers, they just want to make generalizations and run, duck, and dodge around the analysis.

[Dondi33O]

compubox stats taken from
- http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/16...iance-of-floyd
- http://compuboxonline.com/special_co...man_last_3.pdf

The Stats:

In Floyd's last 5 fights he's thrown an average of 37 punches per round and landed an average of 15.9 punches per round; at a 42.9 connect percentage.

Floyd's opponents landed at connect percentage of 16.4%.

In Pac's last 4 fights he's thrown an average of 67 punches a round and landed an average of 28.8 punches per round; at a 42.4% connect percentage.

Pac's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 25.3%.

The Math

So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.

Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 25.3%) + 15.9]/2 = 12.63 punches per round on Pac, and Pac would land [(67 x 16.4% ) + 28.8]/2 = 19.89 punches per round on Floyd.

Conclusion of the Analysis:

Even though Floyd is more accurate by .5% and his defense is better by 8.9%, Pac's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Pac manages to outland floyd by 7.26 punches per round.

Limits of the Analysis:

- I just looked at the total number of punches and was too lazy to calculate the jabs and power punches separately.
- This analysis does not take into consideration subjective judging criteria.
- To be sure, Floyd's last 5 opponents do not fight like Pac and neither does Pac's last 4 opponents fight like Floyd.

Prediction:

Considering Pac will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, and that Pac punches harder than Floyd, and the limitations of this analysis, I predict that Pac will win a SD or close UD, with the possibility of Pac knocking down Floyd at least once.

For all that said..Ive noticed your pretty much the type of poster that hangs on the fence and then jumps on the winner bandwagon while laughing and hating on the loser.
Not word for word, but you basically said, Cotto will beat Pac because he is larger, he is too big, then said if Pac beats Cotto, Cotto should retire, basically undermining Pacs win. Then when Pac wins you try and "show up " Cotto fans.
For all your stats.....FLOYD IS BIGGER.

[Pullcounter]

Good work on the figures, but what should be taken into account is that they are all based on averages.

Floyd isn't average, he has the best defence in boxing

this really isn't an argument at all.

these stats are based on floyd's averages and these averages are an indication of floyd's greatness not his averageness.

you are talking about 2 different things, floyd average punchstats and floyd's elite status. they relate to each other but not in the way that you suggest.

and Pac will land a significantly lower percentage than he does on any other boxer. His output will still be high, it always is - but he's not going to land anywhere near as many clean punches as he has done on DLH/Hatton/Cotto - all virtually stationary targets.

as I've already noted in previous posts, any defensive tactic floyd uses will negate floyd's punch output as well as pac's punch output, so its a wash. as long as pac throws more punches than floyd he will still win based on output.

On top of that Pac's high workrate and come forward style will force Floyd to be more active than usual - IMO making it much more even than your numbers suggest.

That's your hunch, but its not for certain. I'm just working w/ the numbers that are given to me.

but here's some anecdotal evidence for why that won't happen.... hatton was putting a lot of pressure on floyd and floyd was still potshotting hatton, he did not become more "active".

something to think about.

I favour Floyd slightly in the fight, but there's no way anyone should write Pac off - he has a chance both of outworking and hurting Floyd. Floyd HAS to be more active to keep Pac at bay and I think he'll suprise people.

based on past fights, we've seen that if you put pressure on floyd, he will potshot. floyd doesn't up his punch output to match his opponents, he goes more into a defensive shell.

I dont get this, You can Mayweather a runner and you expect Manny to outland him??? So Mayrunner is going to get outland while running???

it doesn't matter what defensive tactic floyd uses, if he's using defensive tactics, he's not using offensive tactics.

When Floyd goes to the ropes that's where he will be punished. He won't see Pacs punches. He'll get hit, a lot.

yes, floyd loves sitting on the ropes, even hatton was able to get floyd onto the ropes. hatton didn't land anything, but surely pac will corner floyd and floyd will look to counter pac coming in, but floyd doesn't throw enough punches or hit hard enough to deter pac's offense.