Comments Thread For: David Benavidez wouldn?t be surprised if Terence Crawford defeats Canelo Alvarez

[boxingitis]

That’s is incredibly disrespectful Bud is one of the greatest of all time and owns nobody a thing if he wants that Canelo smoke go get it.

"Everyone" wants that Canelo Pay Day.
Benavidez, Crawford, "Jake Paul"
Mungia and Berlanga just did.

Disrespectful is Crawford Scamming all his fan base making them think he has chance. But there is sucker born every day.

[SteveM]

Crawford averages about 30 punches per round. Canelo averages more like 40+ (true across his last 23 fights). He's got to increase his punch rate by nearly 50% just to keep up, and Canelo will be throwing the more eye catching harder shots. Or do you think Crawford is a bigger puncher than Golovkin, Munguía, Berlanga, and Charlo? You think Crawford's style is more likely to win points than Canelo's, even with lower output, and almost certainly on the back foot? Or that he can knock Canelo down or out, when Canelo hasn't so much as tasted canvas before? He's only ever thrown over 500 punches a round, or an equivalent average vs Felix Diaz, Jose Benavidez Jr, and David Avanesyan, across the 41 fights in his career. I just don't see how he's supposed to get more output 3 divisions up, all without getting punished by Canelo. How do you think he's going to win? What's the play?

Hmmm, whats that old saying about statistics and lies? Averages go up and down all the time. Going back 23 fights you are confounding two different versions of Canelo. Also, having inferior come forward fighters in front of Canelo does what for his punch statistics? Raises them. Those are telling statistics but not the only viable pre-fight read. My take on fight history is to look at the last 2-3 fights and maybe only the last fight if there's a glaring change in performance. And when you see a glaring change in performance such as Crawford vs Madrimov then what are the reasons.My take is Madrimov is a lot better than the average fan acknowledges - he's not getting enough credit. I expect him to gain credibility going forward. Canelo from 4 years ago when he was knocking out BJS and Plant would be a different proposition. I still think Canelo should win, just because of the weight difference.

[-Kev-]

But I don’t think that’s going to be the case with Crawford. Crawford can absolutely upset this version of Canelo. And I honestly believe that Crawford is going to shock a lot of people.

This right here ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Well said and that is my gut feeling also

Canelo is my favorite active fighter, but he’s there for the taking. While you can’t just leave your chin in the air and give Canelo free shots like if he’s Paulie Malignaggi, but he doesn’t punch as hard anymore. He still has knock down power, but he can’t put opponents away anymore. That could be lack of pop due to injuries, or, he can’t finish off opponents anymore because his stamina doesn’t allow him to push for the KO. Regardless of what it is, this fight is going 12 rounds and I do believe it will be shockingly competitive. **** Crawford might just upset him.

[YOU WILL LOSE]

crawford better than morrell
crawford better than benavidez
haters wrapped into pretzel, mastermind move by canelo

[crisantonio917]

Damn homeboy still buzzed from saturday! David, this is a Jr. Welter against a Super Middle AKA= MISMATCH

[STREET CLEANER]

I totally disagree, NO way will Canelo vs Terence be a repeat of the Canelo vs Charlo, fight. Terence gonna get in Canelo face kinda like Floyd did and work his azz and see what he got. Terence ain't never loss before. Terence ain't gonna run, Terence thump. Terence is a real dog. Terence said Charlo gave Canelo way too much respect. I can't wait for this fight to happen. I'm glad Terence didn't go all out and played with Madrimov like he did. It gave Canelo some hope that Terence has slowed down and might be able to be beat. I know Canelo got some size, but so what. I just cannot picture slow azz Canelo doing a whole lot to the #1 top pound 4 pound fighter in the world (Terence Crawford.)

In his last fight Terrence did not engage until his foe slowed down enough. He was waiting around and thinking too much. In the past Crawford did move a lot against Beltran. Bud is a tough guy at heart and has the skills, I think the weight will be too much but I am ready to be surprised.

[champion4ever]

I am going out on a limb here. If Canelo is clean then he gets his ass whupped by Terence Crawford. If a 130 lbs Floyd Mayweather could do it then so could Bud.

The only difference is Mayweather ensured that they had random olympic style drug testing for their fight. If Canelo agrees to do the same with Crawford; Then it's a wrap. Terence wins.

[champion4ever]

By the time Benny gets that ass Canelo would be an aging washed up fighter on the decline. Time waits for no one. The longer the delay the worst it's going to get for Saul Canelo Alvarez' asswhipping.

[crimsonfalcon07]

Hmmm, whats that old saying about statistics and lies? Averages go up and down all the time. Going back 23 fights you are confounding two different versions of Canelo. Also, having inferior come forward fighters in front of Canelo does what for his punch statistics? Raises them. Those are telling statistics but not the only viable pre-fight read. My take on fight history is to look at the last 2-3 fights and maybe only the last fight if there's a glaring change in performance. And when you see a glaring change in performance such as Crawford vs Madrimov then what are the reasons.My take is Madrimov is a lot better than the average fan acknowledges - he's not getting enough credit. I expect him to gain credibility going forward. Canelo from 4 years ago when he was knocking out BJS and Plant would be a different proposition. I still think Canelo should win, just because of the weight difference.

Going back 2-3 fights, Canelo throws 38.7/rd (Berlanga), 44.6/rd (Munguía), 32.8/rd (Charlo) punches a fight.

Crawford threw 36/rd v Madrimov, 41/Rd v Spence, 32.8/Rd vs Porter. The outlier is vs Avanesyan, in which he averaged a career high 104.9 per round, thanks to throwing 421 jabs across 6 rounds. More on this later.

Madrimov wasn't really an outlier for Crawford. His average is still pretty consistent.

Canelo has been outlanded by wide margins twice (Bivol and Mayweather), and by slighter margins twice (Lara and GGG 1). We all know how those fights turned out, and how much closer the scorecards were than they should have been in all 4 cases. Feel free to look it up yourself. I've been through 50 fights in total for both guys, and there aren't huge differences in trends IMO. If a guy is in complete survival mode, then Canelo's punch output can drop to under 400, but his opponents land fewer than 20% of their punches in those cases, and aren't able to outland him. Crawford has always been an extremely economical puncher, and it's rare for him to throw more than 35 punches a round even when he's dominating the round. He'd need to have the kind of output he had vs Avanesyan, while moving as much or more as he did vs Porter, but still being accurate.

What makes it interesting is that Crawford especially doesn't have a huge body of work vs Canelo-quality opponents, and Canelo's opponents lately haven't been high quality either. So that does tend to distort the data. And you've got a huge outlier for Crawford in the Avanesyan fight, which does suggest he's capable of crazy output, except that Avanesyan is a FAR CRY from Canelo. Canelo is one of the best in the sport currently at landing on his opponents as well, landing 46.4% of his power punches. He's actually more accurate than Crawford based on current form, although Crawford is slightly harder to hit.

Crawford will need to have much higher than average output while staying away from Canelo, and taking Canelo's power while he does, and carrying more weight than usual. I don't buy either guy stopping the other, since Canelo's got a legendary chin, but also hasn't stopped anyone in years. I hope Crawford can pull it off, but the data just doesn't look good for it, especially since he'll be carrying more weight. I'll be rooting for him, although I still consider myself a Canelo fan, and he's still a very canny fighter with a of tricks in his bag, despite how people feel about him. I do not buy that Crawford will be able to hurt him when the likes of GGG, Munguía, or even Berlanga couldn't. I don't even know that Crawford hits harder than Charlo. And Crawford will be on the back foot, which means his most powerful punch will be the check hook, likely in southpaw, and he'll have to put that up against Canelo's left hook. I hope Crawford trains for stamina, because he's going to need it.

[MulaKO]

Hmmm, whats that old saying about statistics and lies? Averages go up and down all the time. Going back 23 fights you are confounding two different versions of Canelo. Also, having inferior come forward fighters in front of Canelo does what for his punch statistics? Raises them. Those are telling statistics but not the only viable pre-fight read. My take on fight history is to look at the last 2-3 fights and maybe only the last fight if there's a glaring change in performance. And when you see a glaring change in performance such as Crawford vs Madrimov then what are the reasons.My take is Madrimov is a lot better than the average fan acknowledges - he's not getting enough credit. I expect him to gain credibility going forward. Canelo from 4 years ago when he was knocking out BJS and Plant would be a different proposition. I still think Canelo should win, just because of the weight difference.

Great points about Canelo and very reasonable way to look at it
This version of Canelo is very beatable , maybe not by knockout but certainly by decision and that would be without any help from the judges , of course