Inoue vs Goodman

[Mammoth]

Pretty sure Goodman gets blown out. I wish we could just fastforward to the Nakatani fight. The rest don't matter.

[famicommander]

Long way to go before Nakatani.

First Nakatani and Takuma Inoue have to win their upcoming fights, then Naoya Inoue has to beat Goodman, then Nakatani has to beat Takuma while Naoya beats Akhmadaliev.

Then we can have Naoya vs Nakatani.

[Mammoth]

Long way to go before Nakatani.

First Nakatani and Takuma Inoue have to win their upcoming fights, then Naoya Inoue has to beat Goodman, then Nakatani has to beat Takuma while Naoya beats Akhmadaliev.

Then we can have Naoya vs Nakatani.

If the WBA force the Akhmadaliev fight they can just vacate the title. We don't really need that fight. One fight each before they fight each other.

[famicommander]

If the WBA force the Akhmadaliev fight they can just vacate the title. We don't really need that fight. One fight each before they fight each other.

They have literally already said they plan to have Naoya Inoue fight in the US in May or April. There's zero chance they do the Nakatani fight anywhere but Tokyo Dome. They have also that that they want Takuma and Nakatani to unify on the Inoue undercard in Vegas if they both win their fights in 10/11 days against Tsutsumi and Petch respectively.

It's going to be MJ in Vegas. That's the only fight that makes sense. Inoue won't move up to 126 and then back down to 122 for Nakatani, and they want undisputed on the line for the Nakatani megafight.

10/11 days from now:
Takuma Inoue vs Tstusumi, WBA 118 defense
Junto Nakatani vs Petch, WBC 118 defense

December in Tokyo:
Naoya Inoue vs Goodman

April/May in Vegas:
Naoya Inoue vs Akhmadaliev
Nakatani vs Takuma unification (assuming both win their upcoming fights)

later next year back in Tokyo:
Naoya Inoue vs Nakatani (assuming they both win in Vegas)

This is the plan. Unless somebody loses, this is what all the promoters have already said they want.

[Mammoth]

Sounds good

[famicommander]

Sounds good

Has to be a bit awkward with the promoters already planning on essentially sacrificing Takuma to make a Naoya vs Nakatani fight bigger. Naoya is in a difficult position there; of course he wants his brother to win, but if he does that derails a much more lucrative megafight. And if Naoya gets the megafight it means his brother lost his world title.

[Elheath]

Has to be a bit awkward with the promoters already planning on essentially sacrificing Takuma to make a Naoya vs Nakatani fight bigger. Naoya is in a difficult position there; of course he wants his brother to win, but if he does that derails a much more lucrative megafight. And if Naoya gets the megafight it means his brother lost his world title.

Granted Takuma-Nakatani might actually be closer than people give credit to and work positively for Takuma too even in a loss.

Takuma's biggest weakness is his obvious featherfists that can't be helped, but at the 118 division he's got very good stamina to last the whole match (thanks to his many 12R UD matches), good fundamental skills capable to earn points, toughness to absorb damage (his flash KD from Ishida didn't really leave any actual damage, and was practically the only round he lost looking back), and he's got solid speed and defense overall. Of course he is worse than his brother in everything, but that is more a compliment on Naoya. I think he'll likely lose a closer than initially expected (but not close) fight to Nakatani, but would have a better than 50:50 chance against Nishida and would be the actual favorite against Takei, if they weren't from the same Gym.

And considering circumstances, given his current age, skills and bodybuild Nakatani would likely be the best opponent to lose to and still keep a decent ranking after a loss to aim for a belt again in the near future, plus Nakatani will likely stay at 126 after the Naoya fight regardless of result so there will be some vacancies available.

Takuma's already lost while he was young so don't have the "undefeated" BS to worry about (not that Japanese promoters care that much about the undefeated record compared to US to begin with).
Given practically every non-Inoue family seems to be expecting Nakatani to steamroll him, so just
Just making the distance while maybe even winning a few rounds for something like a 117-111 would actually raise his profile in the loss more than not fighting Nakatani at all.
And in an 1/1000 chance that somehow Takuma wins (there certainly is a higher chance than a meteor striking Tokyo Tower IMO), he's suddenly the universally accepted top dog at 118 and it also will raise Naoya's value indirectly and Shingo Inoue would become the Trainer of the Year by de facto.

[Elheath]

They have literally already said they plan to have Naoya Inoue fight in the US in May or April. There's zero chance they do the Nakatani fight anywhere but Tokyo Dome. They have also that that they want Takuma and Nakatani to unify on the Inoue undercard in Vegas if they both win their fights in 10/11 days against Tsutsumi and Petch respectively.

It's going to be MJ in Vegas. That's the only fight that makes sense. Inoue won't move up to 126 and then back down to 122 for Nakatani, and they want undisputed on the line for the Nakatani megafight.

10/11 days from now:
Takuma Inoue vs Tstusumi, WBA 118 defense
Junto Nakatani vs Petch, WBC 118 defense

December in Tokyo:
Naoya Inoue vs Goodman

April/May in Vegas:
Naoya Inoue vs Akhmadaliev
Nakatani vs Takuma unification (assuming both win their upcoming fights)

later next year back in Tokyo:
Naoya Inoue vs Nakatani (assuming they both win in Vegas)

This is the plan. Unless somebody loses, this is what all the promoters have already said they want.

I know there are no definites in sports, but I think the path has a good chance of happening given the matchups.

My expectations:
Takuma-Tsutsumi: Takuma easy wide UD. Tsutsumi isn't a bad boxer in general but Takuma has the clear edge in everything except power. Physically they are near same height/reach and same age, but Takuma has better stamina, better defense, faster, more experience at world level, better resume of opponents as well. Tsutsumi can box switch but Takuma isn't extremely bad against southpaws to make it a huge advantage. For what its worth, they also fought as teenagers in highschool competition where Takuma won as well.
Nakatani-Petch: Nakatani early KO. Obvious staybusy/schedule adjustment fight against the next guy down the line on WBC due to last fight against mandatory Astrolabio being only 1R and other beltholders unavailable for unification.
Naoya-Goodman: Inoue first half KO. Probably observe Goodman for a round or two then kick up the engine for the kill.
Naoya-MJ: Inoue late KO. Will last longer than Goodman but still not anywhere enough for an upset.
Nakatani-Takuma: Nakatani wide UD or late TKO due to accumulation of damage. Takuma will give enough effort where Nakatani won't get an easy first half one punch KO win but the winner won't change.

If anything I can expect some casuals/haters to argue that Nakatani isn't that good/not ready for Naoya because he "struggled (ie he didn't steamroll through him early)" against Takuma but Naoya himself probably knows and rates Takuma high enough and will be more than willing to face Nakatani.

[BodyBagz]

Back 2 back "stay busy" fights ?

[Mammoth]

Back 2 back "stay busy" fights ?

Canelo-ing it up this year