Why do people think Canelo would easily beat Benavidez when Alvarez himself isn't so sure?

[Feroz]

I have read some opinions regarding that David Benavidez's style is tailor made for Canelo with apparently Benavidez having glaring holes. However, stylistically speaking Canelo doesn't pose something David wouldn't be to handle either.

Canelo doesn't create distance between himself and his opponent with mobile footwork like Plant/Andrade have done nor will he be able to back him up like Jacobs and GGG, David's defense isn't clearly inferior compared to them either and Alvarez at 168 heavily utilizes his high guard as his defense.

Which Benavidez knows how to dismantle. (Video by The Modern Martial Artist)

[_Rexy_]

His fans think he got robbed against Bivol FFS. You're talking to idiots.

[BodyBagz]

Well, Benny's best W is Plant (Nelo did it 1st/better)

Boogeyman fans are hateful hypocrites

[crimsonfalcon07]

I've thought in the past that Canelo would be able to beat Benavidez, but that's looking less likely because he's looking like he's lost a step.

This clip actually shows a lot of the reasons I thought that Canelo would be able to beat Benavidez.

First, Benavidez tends to keep his hands down at chest level, and relies on his offense and size and reach. But most of what we see has been against opponents who just aren't high level. So that's a bad habit that can be exploited. What happens if he can't push an opponent back, or doesn't have a size advantage? That's part of why I'm interested to see how he does vs Gvodzyk.

Canelo likes to bait with his high guard, and Benavidez' sloppy hand positioning leaves him open to the body shots that are Canelo's bread and butter, as well as uppercuts and overhands. He's also got a tendency to want to batter with hooks, which means he's going to be putting himself in Canelo's range. Notice that Bivol did most of his work at range with straight punches, preventing Canelo from entering to do his work.

His head stays dead center when he's defending in high guard and when he's opening up with combos too. That's also a bad habit vs a counter puncher, since they don't need to look to know where to hit you.

His style also is more about volume and breaking down opponents, and Canelo would almost certainly use the same strategy he did vs Callum Smith in battering the arm to try to take away the jab. Didn't work on Bivol, but it might on Benavidez. That's also partially because Benavidez defends via a pretty static high guard. He took a lot of leather from both Plant and Andrade, neither of whom are nearly the punchers that Alvarez is.

And, since his offense depends on volume and putting the opponent on the back foot, what happens if they punch with him, make him miss, and batter his body and arms to sap his gas tank? What if he can't push them back? Does he know how to fight on the back foot if he needs to? Who will be able to impose their style on the other? He can lose quite a few rounds early on, and then wins by coming on strong in the later rounds. Can Canelo do enough damage with his body work and arm shots to prevent that resurgence?

On the flip side, Alvarez has a questionable gas tank these days and takes rounds off, loads up on every punch, and the elite head movement from the Jacobs fight hasn't really been in much evidence in the last several fights. He and Reynoso didn't make any adjustments vs Bivol either. It looks like they fell in love with the notion that Canelo has one shot stop KO power, but he hasn't gotten a stoppage in his last several fights. And his confidence took a big hit vs Bivol, especially in their usual gameplan vs bigger, younger fighters. Doubt is a big deal at that level. And Benavidez has a 4" reach advantage, although Smith had nearly an 8" reach advantage, so it's not something Canelo isn't used to. And if Canelo can't actually slow Benavidez down, he doesn't have the gas tank to win on points, and not having gotten a stoppage when he was a huge favorite, even against junior middleweights, old men, and Euro level guys has to be concerning. I think he's just full of doubt. If he hadn't lost to Bivol at the peak of his confidence, he'd probably have fought Benavidez by now, but Bivol took his soul. If he can't knock Munguía out, I think that's really going to be the end of any chance at the best fights.

[BodyBagz]

he'd probably have fought Benavidez by now, but Bivol took his soul. If he can't knock Munguía out, I think that's really going to be the end of any chance at the best fights.

[K--]

Two words. Confirmation bias.

[Feroz]

I've thought in the past that Canelo would be able to beat Benavidez, but that's looking less likely because he's looking like he's lost a step.

This clip actually shows a lot of the reasons I thought that Canelo would be able to beat Benavidez.

First, Benavidez tends to keep his hands down at chest level, and relies on his offense and size and reach. But most of what we see has been against opponents who just aren't high level. So that's a bad habit that can be exploited. What happens if he can't push an opponent back, or doesn't have a size advantage? That's part of why I'm interested to see how he does vs Gvodzyk.

Canelo likes to bait with his high guard, and Benavidez' sloppy hand positioning leaves him open to the body shots that are Canelo's bread and butter, as well as uppercuts and overhands. He's also got a tendency to want to batter with hooks, which means he's going to be putting himself in Canelo's range. Notice that Bivol did most of his work at range with straight punches, preventing Canelo from entering to do his work.

His head stays dead center when he's defending in high guard and when he's opening up with combos too. That's also a bad habit vs a counter puncher, since they don't need to look to know where to hit you.

His style also is more about volume and breaking down opponents, and Canelo would almost certainly use the same strategy he did vs Callum Smith in battering the arm to try to take away the jab. Didn't work on Bivol, but it might on Benavidez. That's also partially because Benavidez defends via a pretty static high guard. He took a lot of leather from both Plant and Andrade, neither of whom are nearly the punchers that Alvarez is.

And, since his offense depends on volume and putting the opponent on the back foot, what happens if they punch with him, make him miss, and batter his body and arms to sap his gas tank? What if he can't push them back? Does he know how to fight on the back foot if he needs to? Who will be able to impose their style on the other? He can lose quite a few rounds early on, and then wins by coming on strong in the later rounds. Can Canelo do enough damage with his body work and arm shots to prevent that resurgence?

On the flip side, Alvarez has a questionable gas tank these days and takes rounds off, loads up on every punch, and the elite head movement from the Jacobs fight hasn't really been in much evidence in the last several fights. He and Reynoso didn't make any adjustments vs Bivol either. It looks like they fell in love with the notion that Canelo has one shot stop KO power, but he hasn't gotten a stoppage in his last several fights. And his confidence took a big hit vs Bivol, especially in their usual gameplan vs bigger, younger fighters. Doubt is a big deal at that level. And Benavidez has a 4" reach advantage, although Smith had nearly an 8" reach advantage, so it's not something Canelo isn't used to. And if Canelo can't actually slow Benavidez down, he doesn't have the gas tank to win on points, and not having gotten a stoppage when he was a huge favorite, even against junior middleweights, old men, and Euro level guys has to be concerning. I think he's just full of doubt. If he hadn't lost to Bivol at the peak of his confidence, he'd probably have fought Benavidez by now, but Bivol took his soul. If he can't knock Munguía out, I think that's really going to be the end of any chance at the best fights.

Benavidez adapts his style based on what opponent he is handling however (not that it changes dramatically), against (limited) punchers like Lemieux, Angulo and Dirrell he was defensively on the backfoot, utilizing waste movement (to avoid overhands, hooks and jabs), and his active high guard like Winky Wright.

Guess the fight with a power puncher in Gvodzyk will showcase if he can be defensive enough at the top level or be able to take a punch though.

If Canelo attempted to target the arm like he did Callum, he would be susceptible of getting countered with a single loaded shot and then overwhelmed as he leaves himself open with his head in the same position at 168. He might catch David to the body once and then, but if Charlo and Ryder could withstand it, I think he can tank through it if he is active and careful enough. Who's to say he beat the rangier/quicker high output fighter to the punch if they threw at the same time?

Benavidez also has one of the best punch precisions in the sport.

TOP 10 CONNECT PERCENTAGE (TOTAL PUNCHES)
Source: CompuBox

DAVID BENAVIDEZ	38.4%
GENNADY GOLOVKIN	36.5%
VASILIY LOMACHENKO	36.0%
ROMAN GONZALEZ	35.8%
BADOU JACK	35.6%
ANTHONY DIRRELL	35.5%
GERVONTA DAVIS	35.1%
SAUL ALVAREZ	35.1%
JULIAN WILLIAMS	34.7%
NAOYA INOUE	34.7%

https://boxingjunkie.usatoday.com/20...else-in-boxing

There also the fact that Plant/Andrade had more opportunities to land overhands and combinations due to their slick mobile style that utilization angles. Benavidez knew he could tank Plant/Andrade's hits, by taking those risks he could have more opportunities to land a cleaner shot. His next fight will prove he can fight in the backfoot.

[Oracle01]

Only someone with a low boxing IQ thinks Benavidez is tailor made for Canelo. Its clear now Canelo believes the opposite, and I'm pretty sure he knows better. David is literally a nightmare match up for a flat footed plodder who fights in spurts and has a mediocre gas tank. In reality, Canelo is custom made for Benavidez. He will be standing right there infront of him from round 1.

That's also partially because Benavidez defends via a pretty static high guard. He took a lot of leather from both Plant and Andrade, neither of whom are nearly the punchers that Alvarez is.

I think this is where the myth comes from that David has poor defense. People can't tell the difference between a blocked and landed punch. Plant and Andrade were hitting arm and gloves most of the time and struggled to land clean. Literally the opposite of what you are claiming. No wonder you have no idea about breaking down fights.

[BodyBagz]

It's easy to stack up highlight reels when your opponents are flimsy
GGG will be enshrined because of such opponents

[BodyBagz]

TOP 10 CONNECT PERCENTAGE (TOTAL PUNCHES)
Source: CompuBox

DAVID BENAVIDEZ	38.4%
GENNADY GOLOVKIN	36.5%
VASILIY LOMACHENKO	36.0%
ROMAN GONZALEZ	35.8%
BADOU JACK	35.6%
ANTHONY DIRRELL	35.5%
GERVONTA DAVIS	35.1%
SAUL ALVAREZ	35.1%
JULIAN WILLIAMS	34.7%
NAOYA INOUE	34.7%

Do you find it strange that of these names, Nelo became the man ?