Comments Thread For: Photos: Anthony Joshua, Robert Helenius - Face To Face at Final Presser

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  • War Room
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    #41
    Originally posted by Tatabanya
    War Room: to laugh a bit, yesterday - in lack of big fights - I put a few ones on two rather easy parlays to test the waters in regard to a change of betting tactics. Well, I lost both, one of them for totally improbable circumstances (McCann and Baluta, technical draw rather than the anticipated McCann win... and I had inserted that fight at the last moment, for good measure!).

    So you see, I will try again, but when it comes to my way of betting, it's usually something like "lose for three weeks, win big enough for one or two weeks". On the long run your tactics are probably more remunerative, I know. Still, I hate when I lose money on easy stuff.
    I see, headbutt. Tough break. What was the whole parlay that you had?​

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    • Tatabanya
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      #42
      Originally posted by War Room

      I see, headbutt. Tough break. What was the whole parlay that you had?​
      McCann win, any method
      Raven Chapman win by decision
      Shawn McCalman win, any method
      Kurt Scoby win by KO.

      At 4.88/1, a steal... sigh.

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      • War Room
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        #43
        Originally posted by Tatabanya

        McCann win, any method
        Raven Chapman win by decision
        Shawn McCalman win, any method
        Kurt Scoby win by KO.

        At 4.88/1, a steal... sigh.
        Not a bad one, I like* the direction...partially (with an asterisk). Much better than your Helenius pick imo. I'm just going to think outloud for a minute =--->

        McCann was -475 and if capped right, could be a nice pick. Losing like that was an anomally, nothing to self-hate about. What was the scores looing like?

        Even at -1000, Raven Chapman fought an undefeated figter with a very similar record, I wouldn't have touched that. I have no experience capping women so the money lines are unknown to me if they behave the same as men. Maybe you know these fighters?

        I was looking at Powell vs McCalman and couldn't make a pick after looking at all fights available, records, and reading articles. McCalman did beat Vaughn who beat Powell, but they're both equally lacklustre. McCalman was a slight dog at +120, but the moneyline to me seemed like a 100% gamble. The only thing I was looking at that made sense was the over of 5.5 but the window closed on me before I could decide. Why did you pick McCalman?

        Scoby got the KO, but another ballsy pick. Carmona could have easily went the distance and there was no way to honestly tell if he was a victim for a KO, he was undefeated.

        I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but +400 loses more than it wins...like a lot more. You lost to an anomally, 100% =---> but that doesn't mean that wasn't a scary gamble. You can make money without ********. I got to run, but we'll pick this up later.

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        • Tatabanya
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          #44
          Originally posted by War Room

          Not a bad one, I like* the direction...partially (with an asterisk). Much better than your Helenius pick imo. I'm just going to think outloud for a minute =--->

          McCann was -475 and if capped right, could be a nice pick. Losing like that was an anomally, nothing to self-hate about. What was the scores looing like?

          Even at -1000, Raven Chapman fought an undefeated figter with a very similar record, I wouldn't have touched that. I have no experience capping women so the money lines are unknown to me if they behave the same as men. Maybe you know these fighters?

          I was looking at Powell vs McCalman and couldn't make a pick after looking at all fights available, records, and reading articles. McCalman did beat Vaughn who beat Powell, but they're both equally lacklustre. McCalman was a slight dog at +120, but the moneyline to me seemed like a 100% gamble. The only thing I was looking at that made sense was the over of 5.5 but the window closed on me before I could decide. Why did you pick McCalman?

          Scoby got the KO, but another ballsy pick. Carmona could have easily went the distance and there was no way to honestly tell if he was a victim for a KO, he was undefeated.

          I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but +400 loses more than it wins...like a lot more. You lost to an anomally, 100% =---> but that doesn't mean that wasn't a scary gamble. You can make money without ********. I got to run, but we'll pick this up later.
          In synthesis:

          1) McCann was fighting at home against a decent opponent known for his durability. Being him the fighter on the rise, I was in any case expecting him to win (eventually with some home cooking if necessary). In fact, the actual cards added to a technical draw, so I believe it would have been a close decision for the home fighter had the fight ended.

          2) I don't like betting on women as well. But - again - Chapman fighting at home meant that she would probably win, and KO wins in women's boxing are definitely rare. Her opponent was unbeaten, but she mostly fought weak opposition judging by her record.

          3) I picked McCalman after watching the different trajectories of their careers, and reading about McCalman's regular sparring with top names as opposed to Powell's inactivity and general loss of steam after a surprise defeat.

          4) Carmona's record is built on opponents with losing records, so the logical choice would be Scoby by KO (the odds for that single result were 1.25/1, rightly so.

          The Helenius pick was just a try that didn't go well. This next weekend, my inkling is Usyk will knock Dubois out between rounds 8 and 11. But I will definitely consider other parlays!
          Last edited by Tatabanya; 08-19-2023, 02:18 PM.

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          • War Room
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            #45
            Originally posted by Tatabanya

            In synthesis:

            1) McCann was fighting at home against a decent opponent known for his durability. Being him the fighter on the rise, I was in any case expecting him to win (eventually with some home cooking if necessary). In fact, the actual cards added to a technical draw, so I believe it would have been a close decision for the home fighter had the fight ended.

            2) I don't like betting on women as well. But - again - Chapman fighting at home meant that she would probably win, and KO wins in women's boxing are definitely rare. Her opponent was unbeaten, but she mostly fought weak opposition judging by her record.

            3) I picked McCalman after watching the different trajectories of their careers, and reading about McCalman's regular sparring with top names as opposed to Powell's inactivity and general loss of steam after a surprise defeat.

            4) Carmona's record is built on opponents with losing records, so the logical choice would be Coby by KO (the odds for that single result were 1.25/1, rightly so.

            The Helenius pick was just a try that didn't go well. This next weekend, my inkling is Usyk will knock Dubois out between rounds 8 and 11. But I will definitely consider other parlays!
            I read that Ring article about McCalmans sparring partners (Amari, Berlanga, Nelson, as well as Powell). But Powell, has some names too...Charlo being one of them as his only sparring partner for the Castano rematch.

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