The logic is Usyk just needs to do the same again and Joshua needs to perform a hell of a lot better.
Physically I think Joshua has the ability to win, but his mindset remains a huge concern. In the first fight he was super tentative and I'd have thought after 4 or 5 rounds he might have thought to himself to just try blitz Usyk.
A good example previously was when AJ came out in round 4 vs klitschko and just went on all out attack. I thought he might have a go like that but he seems to have lost the vitality of youth to do something like that and just cruised to a UD loss.
I'll know more in the press conferences and build up, if I see some edge to Joshua then I'd call it a more even fight but if he's Mr nice guy again then I expect the same result.
I still strongly favour Usyk but I guess the Ukraine situation kind of throws a potential twist in there ie you dont know if it'll have a positive or negative psychological effect on Usyk (if it has any). I would think if it does effect him in any way it'd probably be making him more motivated if anything.
Last time out Usyk was just too skilled, too evasive, too durable even when he did get hit, too quick, too mobile, too much cardio and importantly he put the fear in AJ by showing that he could hurt him and potentially stop him, so Joshua probably understands that its not just a case of "oh I just have to be more aggressive and chase him down while he tries to run away" because that carries the very real danger of gassing himself out and getting pieced up and stopped.
I'm a big Joshua fan, that's not to say I'm not an Usyk fan too, but I just don't see how Joshua wins. A combination of Usyk just being a better Boxer and Joshua's stamina problems is what does it. Joshua got brute size, strength and power on him but if he has to try chase Usyk down to use it while also leaving him exposed to get chin checked as he tries it just all looks bleak to me. So Usyk has shared a ring with him already so he is guna come in even more clued up than the 1st fight.
I'm a big Joshua fan, that's not to say I'm not an Usyk fan too, but I just don't see how Joshua wins. A combination of Usyk just being a better Boxer and Joshua's stamina problems is what does it. Joshua got brute size, strength and power on him but if he has to try chase Usyk down to use it while also leaving him exposed to get chin checked as he tries it just all looks bleak to me. So Usyk has shared a ring with him already so he is guna come in even more clued up than the 1st fight.
It's not an impossible ask for Joshua, his gamelan in that last fight was the worst possible one he could have had.
If he has a smart guy in his ear he's working on staying out of mid range. He can be outside, he can be inside, but he can't hang around at arms length and have a chess match.
I've rewatched the fight a couple of times and it only becomes a blow out in the last 4 rounds, up to then it's fairly competitive, Joshua kept on going back to center ring though and Usyk had the big advantage there.
I'm really looking forward to seeing his tactics in the rematch.
If I learned anything on here always go against the majority forum .
A.J in all probability wins and he’ll have an even more determined Usyk representing Ukrainian people,I’d dare say it would be at least on paper or stats A.Js best win and it’ll give him a status of defeating every man he’s fought once again .
I think the odds should be 3 to 1 to A.J personally the first fight was blown way out of proportion as usual ,it was a very close fight the score cards actually reflected that and minor adjustments would see A.J winning a 12 rounder but I think he stops Usyk this time around . Usyk to his credit is one of just a few guys with that talent that could however still be that guy in the division but I just don’t see him defeating A.J a second time .
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