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A lot of the talk surrounding this fight has been about "Pavlik being the first man to stop Hopkins" but I think this is a case of "falling in love with a puncher". Pavlik may win, but those expecting some kind of blowout are forgetting just what Hopkins brings to the table, and buying into the Pavlik "huge power" mythology a little too eagerly.
First of all, Pavlik is going to have to overcome fighting at the highest weight he has ever fought at in his life, and he's in against a guy who just one fight ago was recognised as the best LHW in the world. Pavlik should be OK at the weight, but will his power, great against guys 10 pounds lighter really carry up to LHW in the same way? I don't think so. Even Roy Jones found that fighting LHWs was harder than he expected, until he got used to it.
Second there is Hopkins himself. It appears that since his loss to Calzaghe he has been universally written off as an ancient relic, but is this really fair? In that fight he was up against maybe the hardest working SMW/ LHW there has ever been, one with great speed and a chin that allowed him to show no fear of Hopkins' power. And Hopkins still took the fight to a split decision. Can Pavlik's chin be relied on to let him pressure relentlessly a la Calzaghe? Maybe, but maybe not too, Calzaghe was the first and only fighter ever to be able to pressurise Hopkins like that, so Kelly Pavlik certainly has a tough task on his hands to be able to follow suit.
And Hopkins stamina? Well, no doubt it is not what it was in his younger days, but its not as bad as his critics make out. He looked pretty good still for the majority of the Calzaghe fight, and when he did get tired it was late in the fight, which is hardly unusual, especially against someone like Calzaghe. No doubt if Pavlik is able to fight at the pace he wants then the advantage goes to him, but if he can't, which is not unlikely, and Hopkins manages to slow him down then suddenly we are looking at a fight between an inexperienced MW still learning the game and the most experienced LHW there is, one with every trick in the book to turn a fight his way. Oh yeah, one thats never been stopped too.
This fight is going to be a much closer affair than many imagine, and is a much greater test for Pavlik than is being made out. Hopkins is not the force he once was but still has the tools to spring a surprise, as he has before in his career, and if Pavlik can beat him it should go down as a tremendous win, perhaps even Pavlik's best given all the circumstances. If Pavlik can beat him.
First of all, Pavlik is going to have to overcome fighting at the highest weight he has ever fought at in his life, and he's in against a guy who just one fight ago was recognised as the best LHW in the world. Pavlik should be OK at the weight, but will his power, great against guys 10 pounds lighter really carry up to LHW in the same way? I don't think so. Even Roy Jones found that fighting LHWs was harder than he expected, until he got used to it.
Second there is Hopkins himself. It appears that since his loss to Calzaghe he has been universally written off as an ancient relic, but is this really fair? In that fight he was up against maybe the hardest working SMW/ LHW there has ever been, one with great speed and a chin that allowed him to show no fear of Hopkins' power. And Hopkins still took the fight to a split decision. Can Pavlik's chin be relied on to let him pressure relentlessly a la Calzaghe? Maybe, but maybe not too, Calzaghe was the first and only fighter ever to be able to pressurise Hopkins like that, so Kelly Pavlik certainly has a tough task on his hands to be able to follow suit.
And Hopkins stamina? Well, no doubt it is not what it was in his younger days, but its not as bad as his critics make out. He looked pretty good still for the majority of the Calzaghe fight, and when he did get tired it was late in the fight, which is hardly unusual, especially against someone like Calzaghe. No doubt if Pavlik is able to fight at the pace he wants then the advantage goes to him, but if he can't, which is not unlikely, and Hopkins manages to slow him down then suddenly we are looking at a fight between an inexperienced MW still learning the game and the most experienced LHW there is, one with every trick in the book to turn a fight his way. Oh yeah, one thats never been stopped too.
This fight is going to be a much closer affair than many imagine, and is a much greater test for Pavlik than is being made out. Hopkins is not the force he once was but still has the tools to spring a surprise, as he has before in his career, and if Pavlik can beat him it should go down as a tremendous win, perhaps even Pavlik's best given all the circumstances. If Pavlik can beat him.
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