Oddsmakers and judges vs. NSB posters

[Left2body]

Oddsmakers make initial lines for a fight, as far as I understood.
Anyway, we need Hitman942 to comeback from his forced vacation and shed some light.

The initial lines move depending on public wagering confidence. Too much money being bet on one fighter/team makes the line move. Some initial lines even flip the favorite.

Does that mean that the oddsmakers have gotten some news the day or two leading up to the fight which makes them less/more confident in a fighter?......NO. It simply means that there exposure is not neutral and they have to shift the lines to equalize it.

[Easy-E]

I agree with you as a whole and on the Hops/Cal and Taylor/Pavlik II fronts but Miranda clearly won their first fight and had a shot at winning the fight last night.....Until it reeked that his chin will never be the same after what Pavlik did to him. No excuses just saying he took those shots the first time he and Abraham fought but couldn't this time around. It was more of the same leading up to the KO though. Miranda won 2 of the 1st 3 rounds with his non stop aggression.

Yeah him getting hurt by that initial right hand suprised me, he took those from Abraham the first fight and for 5 rounds against Pavlik.

[RAESAAD]

Yeah him getting hurt by that initial right hand suprised me, he took those from Abraham the first fight and for 5 rounds against Pavlik.

Not only that but one has to think Abraham was throwing with even more vicious intent in their first fight given the adreneline he must have been pumping fighting with a broken jaw.

[Easy-E]

The initial lines move depending on public wagering confidence. Too much money being bet on one fighter/team makes the line move. Some initial lines even flip the favorite.

Does that mean that the oddsmakers have gotten some news the day or two leading up to the fight which makes them less/more confident in a fighter?......NO. It simply means that there exposure is not neutral and they have to shift the lines to equalize it.

Right but the public reacts to the initial lines made by the oddsmakers.

[abadger]

I agree with you as a whole and on the Hops/Cal and Taylor/Pavlik II fronts but Miranda clearly won their first fight and had a shot at winning the fight last night.....Until it reeked that his chin will never be the same after what Pavlik did to him. No excuses just saying he took those shots the first time he and Abraham fought but couldn't this time around. It was more of the same leading up to the KO though. Miranda won 2 of the 1st 3 rounds with his non stop aggression.

Miranda would have won the first fight if he hadn't had the points taken, but that was because Abraham had a broken jaw and primarily needed to protect himself, you only have to look at last nights result to see the class difference between a functionaing Abraham and Miranda.

This excuse about Miranda having his chin ruined by Pavlik is just that, an excuse. In fact, Miranda has never had the best chin, and both Pavlik and Abraham have been able to expose that. How is a chin "ruined" anyway? Punch resistance is punch resistance and a fighter either has it or doesn't. Miranda didn't lose last night because of what Pavlik did to him, he lost because of what Abraham did. Don't make excuses.

Miranda winning the first few rounds last night means nothing. It is quite clear from even a cursory inspection of Abrahams style and actions that he was quite prepared to give those rounds away, let Miranda throw at him and take his opportunity to counter when it arose. If anything, Miranda's workrate and aggression was the reason he lost the fight, since he played directly into the hands of Abraham's chosen strategy.

[RAESAAD]

Miranda would have won the first fight if he hadn't had the points taken, but that was because Abraham had a broken jaw and primarily needed to protect himself, you only have to look at last nights result to see the class difference between a functionaing Abraham and Miranda.

This excuse about Miranda having his chin ruined by Pavlik is just that, an excuse. In fact, Miranda has never had the best chin, and both Pavlik and Abraham have been able to expose that. How is a chin "ruined" anyway? Punch resistance is punch resistance and a fighter either has it or doesn't. Miranda didn't lose last night because of what Pavlik did to him, he lost because of what Abraham did. Don't make excuses.

Miranda winning the first few rounds last night means nothing. It is quite clear from even a cursory inspection of Abrahams style and actions that he was quite prepared to give those rounds away, let Miranda throw at him and take his opportunity to counter when it arose. If anything, Miranda's workrate and aggression was the reason he lost the fight, since he played directly into the hands of Abraham's chosen strategy.

Miranda has shown a great chin, taking power shots from huge punchers that would have put most fighters away instantly......Up until last night. Pavlik hit him many,many times with shots that took out many fighters alot quicker including Taylor.

Last paragraph you typed I agree , dead on.

[Scott9945]

Just wanna say, oddsmakers should be taken out of the equation. Oddsmakers dont predict who will win. They predict the fulcrum of public confidence on which they equalize there exposure irregardless of winner.

That is very true. Oddsmakers predict the ******** action, not the results.

[Easy-E]

Miranda would have won the first fight if he hadn't had the points taken, but that was because Abraham had a broken jaw and primarily needed to protect himself, you only have to look at last nights result to see the class difference between a functionaing Abraham and Miranda.

This excuse about Miranda having his chin ruined by Pavlik is just that, an excuse. In fact, Miranda has never had the best chin, and both Pavlik and Abraham have been able to expose that. How is a chin "ruined" anyway? Punch resistance is punch resistance and a fighter either has it or doesn't. Miranda didn't lose last night because of what Pavlik did to him, he lost because of what Abraham did. Don't make excuses.

Miranda winning the first few rounds last night means nothing. It is quite clear from even a cursory inspection of Abrahams style and actions that he was quite prepared to give those rounds away, let Miranda throw at him and take his opportunity to counter when it arose. If anything, Miranda's workrate and aggression was the reason he lost the fight, since he played directly into the hands of Abraham's chosen strategy.

I am not sure that is an excuse, Miranda had shown a good chin in the past, and he took some serious shots from Pavlik that definitly had a lasting effect.
Are you unaware of the fact that getting brutally knocked out can permanantly soften a fighters chin??

[!!Captain]

Miranda has shown a great chin, taking power shots from huge punchers that would have put most fighters away instantly......Up until last night. Pavlik hit him many,many times with shots that took out many fighters alot quicker including Taylor.

Last paragraph you typed I agree , dead on.

Don't forget that Abraham came out with one intention - to knock Miranda out. If you saw Abraham's other fights, you would rarely see him going all out like that, wild hooks flying. He threw a few punches in that fight but every one of them had his full power behind it.

[SkillspayBills]

Now KJ my friend,YOU thought Miranda had more than a chance to win. Althout you bet on AA you YOURSELF said this was a tossup.