My Breakdown Of Roy Vs Joe

[abadger]

Ree****yaluss,

Your assessment of this fight is extremely accurate, I'm impressed with your objective attribution of skills and advantages to each fighter. Aside from what I've posted before, and in answer particularly to your points about Roy being able to do whar Bernard did in terms of countering with his right, I would say that this is true, but there is one thing that Roy can not do as well as Bernard, which is spoil Calzaghe's game.

In all likelihood we will see Joe getting caught by Roy's right, but it in IMO this will be in the context of much more open medium range exchanges, rather than coming in and out of rough, brawling clinches like we saw with Bernard. It will be more like what we saw happen against Kessler. The key point is that in this context, Joe will be able to land his own shots much more effectively, he will have in Jones a target to aim at in a nice range. Against Hopkins, whose defence was to get in close to Joe and tie up, Joe's punches looked incredibly slappish and ineffective because with his wide throwing style he was having to pull them in to make contact with a diving in Bernard at very close range. With Roy, whose defence is to cover up and take shots on arms and gloves, Calzaghe will be able to get much more extension on his punches, he will be able to step back from the defending Jones and throw much more solid and fluid combinations than against Hopkins. Roy will undoubtedly hit Joe more, and look better doing so than Hopkins did, but the same is true of Joe, he will hit Roy more and look better doing so than in the earlier fight.

So, what does this mean? I agree with you that the chance exists for Roy to takes a points decision. This will be a much more traditional fight between two pretty capable boxer-punchers. However, for me and as you have stated, Joe is going to retain his advantages in stamina and this will be absolutely crucial. Ultimately in the fight I expect that we will see a great deal more of Roy covering up and being hit than we will of Joe. Roy has never been a volume puncher anyway, though he is capable of amazing combinations, obviously. But throwing is exactly what Joe does, and in this fight like all others recently, he will throw more and land more than his opponent does, even if he takes the cleaner shots.

TBH I think this is the key to Calzaghe's ability to always dig out a win against a variety of types of opponents. His chin and unorthodox style act in combination to make it very hard for his opponent to fight their own fight, and when they do manage to, Joe can take it. His workrate and stamina mean that he can return anything that comes at him, and crucially can do it more. If his opponent withstands Joe's assault we see a points verdict, and if he can't then they get KOd.

Again, I'm certain it will be close, and I know its possible for Roy to win, but I think on balance (and of course as we all know) Joe has the edge on paper.
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[THE REED]

Ree****yaluss,

Your assessment of this fight is extremely accurate, I'm impressed with your objective attribution of skills and advantages to each fighter. Aside from what I've posted before, and in answer particularly to your points about Roy being able to do whar Bernard did in terms of countering with his right, I would say that this is true, but there is one thing that Roy can not do as well as Bernard, which is spoil Calzaghe's game.

In all likelihood we will see Joe getting caught by Roy's right, but it in IMO this will be in the context of much more open medium range exchanges, rather than coming in and out of rough, brawling clinches like we saw with Bernard. It will be more like what we saw happen against Kessler. The key point is that in this context, Joe will be able to land his own shots much more effectively, he will have in Jones a target to aim at in a nice range. Against Hopkins, whose defence was to get in close to Joe and tie up, Joe's punches looked incredibly slappish and ineffective because with his wide throwing style he was having to pull them in to make contact with a diving in Bernard at very close range. With Roy, whose defence is to cover up and take shots on arms and gloves, Calzaghe will be able to get much more extension on his punches, he will be able to step back from the defending Jones and throw much more solid and fluid combinations than against Hopkins. Roy will undoubtedly hit Joe more, and look better doing so than Hopkins did, but the same is true of Joe, he will hit Roy more and look better doing so than in the earlier fight.

So, what does this mean? I agree with you that the chance exists for Roy to takes a points decision. This will be a much more traditional fight between two pretty capable boxer-punchers. However, for me and as you have stated, Joe is going to retain his advantages in stamina and this will be absolutely crucial. Ultimately in the fight I expect that we will see a great deal more of Roy covering up and being hit than we will of Joe. Roy has never been a volume puncher anyway, though he is capable of amazing combinations, obviously. But throwing is exactly what Joe does, and in this fight like all others recently, he will throw more and land more than his opponent does, even if he takes the cleaner shots.

TBH I think this is the key to Calzaghe's ability to always dig out a win against a variety of types of opponents. His chin and unorthodox style act in combination to make it very hard for his opponent to fight their own fight, and when they do manage to, Joe can take it. His workrate and stamina mean that he can return anything that comes at him, and crucially can do it more. If his opponent withstands Joe's assault we see a points verdict, and if he can't then they get KOd.

Again, I'm certain it will be close, and I know its possible for Roy to win, but I think on balance (and of course as we all know) Joe has the edge on paper.

Sounds reasonable and fair enough... Although as you stated here:

With Roy, whose defence is to cover up and take shots on arms and gloves, Calzaghe will be able to get much more extension on his punches, he will be able to step back from the defending Jones and throw much more solid and fluid combinations than against Hopkins.

I think the stepping back will be trouble for Joe, as that is exactly what Roy will be looking for... Joe comes in, does his flurries, steps out, and as hes stepping out, is when the fast right hands come in. Also I believe Roys power is much, much more than Bernards, and he does throw combinations, unlike Bernard, who was pretty much a one punch and clinch in that fight.

Should be a very interesting fight, I expect an intense chess match.

[steptwome]

I think Joe honestly edged it out... it looked like bernard was winging slow punches near the end... bernard just wasnt doin to much at the end.

Bernard was definitely winging those punches

[Vigilant3]

Another problem that people don't seem to realize is that when Joe Calzaghe is throwing combinations, as often as he does, when he brings his hands back he holds them low with his elbow near his ribs! His handspeed allows for him to keep the other man covered up while this is happening, but a smart and FASTER fighter in Roy Jones Jr. is going to eat that up. He'll disrupt the combinations by hitting him mid combo while his hands are down like he always leaves them (see the Kessler fight for reference).

On top of that Roy Jones Jr. has a freakish power to go with his speed (or maybe its power due to speed) that has done some pretty crazy things to people (broken ribs, kidney ruptures, etc.) And you know they always say the last thing to go in a boxer is...his power? People say he has no power because he couldn't knock out Hanshaw and Trinidad, but...were you guys even watching the fights? RJJ was landing at will and could have finished either of those guys off if he wanted to. He explicitly stated at the end of the Hanshaw match (if you watch the commentary) that he didn't want to hurt the guy and just wanted to prove to himself that he could go the full 12 again.

Watching the Hanshaw match you'll also see that RJJ is a great fighter off the ropes with the glove defense. So unless JC is getting points for hitting the arms again he's going to get outpointed against the ropes too from RJJ's witty style of fight. Glass jaw? I think people are really underestimating Roy's jaw. I saw him take quite a few clean hits against Hanshaw, and they only seemed to piss him off and those were the times that he fired back with flurries (including triple left hooks, which we haven't seen from RJJ in a long time.)

Enough about Jones though, on to Calzaghe.

Calzaghe is, of course, a threat to any boxer simply because of his workrate and supposed "granite chin". He throws a million punches a match, and whether a punch lands clean, partially or not at all judges are always inclined to give someone throwing a lot of punches some points.

I think that if Calzaghe is going to win the fight he really has to capitalize on RJJ's mobility problems after losing his legs, and not fall into his traps. He has to learn to keep his hands up while throwing combinations (hand out, back up to protect while the other hand is going out etc.). He's going to have to be really careful not to get picked off by counter punches from someone with much faster hands that hits harder and has a better defense. Awkward angled punches are going to help Calzaghe out a lot, too.

Another thing Calzaghe is going to have to be careful of if he wants to win is to not get careless thinking he's invincible because he can walk through punches of an old man like B-Hop, or from a young guy like Kessler. Neither of them hit as hard as RJJ and neither of them are as snappy and fast. If Calzaghe goes in thinking he can't be hurt by RJJ, he will get KOed, or at least hurt badly (if RJJ is out to get the KO that is, we've seen what his power can do to a man), so he has to be very careful not to get wrapped up in his own "legend".

I don't really know what else to say about 'zaghe as I don't think he has a very flexible game. I don't see him counterpunching Roy or dancing around him. He'll have to keep coming forward and applying pressure to him.

Overall I think that with their current skillsets that RJJ has an advantage going into the fight. A lot of people will look at this and say "man Calzaghe should win". But I think this is RJJ's fight to win and if Calzaghe does beat him, depending on RJJ's level of play, I'll have mad respect for the man.

RJJ by UD, possible KO. But Calzaghe has a chance.

[THE REED]

Another problem that people don't seem to realize is that when Joe Calzaghe is throwing combinations, as often as he does, when he brings his hands back he holds them low with his elbow near his ribs! His handspeed allows for him to keep the other man covered up while this is happening, but a smart and FASTER fighter in Roy Jones Jr. is going to eat that up. He'll disrupt the combinations by hitting him mid combo while his hands are down like he always leaves them (see the Kessler fight for reference).

On top of that Roy Jones Jr. has a freakish power to go with his speed (or maybe its power due to speed) that has done some pretty crazy things to people (broken ribs, kidney ruptures, etc.) And you know they always say the last thing to go in a boxer is...his power? People say he has no power because he couldn't knock out Hanshaw and Trinidad, but...were you guys even watching the fights? RJJ was landing at will and could have finished either of those guys off if he wanted to. He explicitly stated at the end of the Hanshaw match (if you watch the commentary) that he didn't want to hurt the guy and just wanted to prove to himself that he could go the full 12 again.

Watching the Hanshaw match you'll also see that RJJ is a great fighter off the ropes with the glove defense. So unless JC is getting points for hitting the arms again he's going to get outpointed against the ropes too from RJJ's witty style of fight. Glass jaw? I think people are really underestimating Roy's jaw. I saw him take quite a few clean hits against Hanshaw, and they only seemed to piss him off and those were the times that he fired back with flurries (including triple left hooks, which we haven't seen from RJJ in a long time.)

Enough about Jones though, on to Calzaghe.

Calzaghe is, of course, a threat to any boxer simply because of his workrate and supposed "granite chin". He throws a million punches a match, and whether a punch lands clean, partially or not at all judges are always inclined to give someone throwing a lot of punches some points.

I think that if Calzaghe is going to win the fight he really has to capitalize on RJJ's mobility problems after losing his legs, and not fall into his traps. He has to learn to keep his hands up while throwing combinations (hand out, back up to protect while the other hand is going out etc.). He's going to have to be really careful not to get picked off by counter punches from someone with much faster hands that hits harder and has a better defense. Awkward angled punches are going to help Calzaghe out a lot, too.

Another thing Calzaghe is going to have to be careful of if he wants to win is to not get careless thinking he's invincible because he can walk through punches of an old man like B-Hop, or from a young guy like Kessler. Neither of them hit as hard as RJJ and neither of them are as snappy and fast. If Calzaghe goes in thinking he can't be hurt by RJJ, he will get KOed, or at least hurt badly (if RJJ is out to get the KO that is, we've seen what his power can do to a man), so he has to be very careful not to get wrapped up in his own "legend".

I don't really know what else to say about 'zaghe as I don't think he has a very flexible game. I don't see him counterpunching Roy or dancing around him. He'll have to keep coming forward and applying pressure to him.

Overall I think that with their current skillsets that RJJ has an advantage going into the fight. A lot of people will look at this and say "man Calzaghe should win". But I think this is RJJ's fight to win and if Calzaghe does beat him, depending on RJJ's level of play, I'll have mad respect for the man.

RJJ by UD, possible KO. But Calzaghe has a chance.

I think that was a really good post, and Im not agreeing because you favor Roy, but that everything you said, is in fact very true.

Although the part about Joe not being flexible, or maybe adapting is what you meant; I think thats slightly inaccurate. As he was able to catch on to Bernards right hands, and negate them.

[Vigilant3]

When I say flexible I mean that he has pretty much a one-track game. He can't dance, he can't counterpunch to victory, he doesn't really play mind-games or anything like that. He's very straightforward in his approach in that he punches in volumes and pressures the opponent. I don't think he has a very varied skillset and while he can adapt to his opponent, his game remains the same.

[THE REED]

When I say flexible I mean that he has pretty much a one-track game. He can't dance, he can't counterpunch to victory, he doesn't really play mind-games or anything like that. He's very straightforward in his approach in that he punches in volumes and pressures the opponent. I don't think he has a very varied skillset and while he can adapt to his opponent, his game remains the same.

Seems decently accurate, I can roll with that. I do think theres a reason Roy is pursuing this fight so hard. You wouldnt do that if you felt you didnt have what it takes. Younger fighters pursue the bigger fights because its worth it to them, they make a ton of money, and if they win, its huge... its worth the risk of losing.

For Roy, its not about money... Roy could certainly find a lesser opponent with a belt to go out on... I think he feels extremely confident in this match-up.

I really hope it gets made.

[abadger]

Another problem that people don't seem to realize is that when Joe Calzaghe is throwing combinations, as often as he does, when he brings his hands back he holds them low with his elbow near his ribs! His handspeed allows for him to keep the other man covered up while this is happening, but a smart and FASTER fighter in Roy Jones Jr. is going to eat that up. He'll disrupt the combinations by hitting him mid combo while his hands are down like he always leaves them (see the Kessler fight for reference).

On top of that Roy Jones Jr. has a freakish power to go with his speed (or maybe its power due to speed) that has done some pretty crazy things to people (broken ribs, kidney ruptures, etc.) And you know they always say the last thing to go in a boxer is...his power? People say he has no power because he couldn't knock out Hanshaw and Trinidad, but...were you guys even watching the fights? RJJ was landing at will and could have finished either of those guys off if he wanted to. He explicitly stated at the end of the Hanshaw match (if you watch the commentary) that he didn't want to hurt the guy and just wanted to prove to himself that he could go the full 12 again.

Watching the Hanshaw match you'll also see that RJJ is a great fighter off the ropes with the glove defense. So unless JC is getting points for hitting the arms again he's going to get outpointed against the ropes too from RJJ's witty style of fight. Glass jaw? I think people are really underestimating Roy's jaw. I saw him take quite a few clean hits against Hanshaw, and they only seemed to piss him off and those were the times that he fired back with flurries (including triple left hooks, which we haven't seen from RJJ in a long time.)

Enough about Jones though, on to Calzaghe.

Calzaghe is, of course, a threat to any boxer simply because of his workrate and supposed "granite chin". He throws a million punches a match, and whether a punch lands clean, partially or not at all judges are always inclined to give someone throwing a lot of punches some points.

I think that if Calzaghe is going to win the fight he really has to capitalize on RJJ's mobility problems after losing his legs, and not fall into his traps. He has to learn to keep his hands up while throwing combinations (hand out, back up to protect while the other hand is going out etc.). He's going to have to be really careful not to get picked off by counter punches from someone with much faster hands that hits harder and has a better defense. Awkward angled punches are going to help Calzaghe out a lot, too.

Another thing Calzaghe is going to have to be careful of if he wants to win is to not get careless thinking he's invincible because he can walk through punches of an old man like B-Hop, or from a young guy like Kessler. Neither of them hit as hard as RJJ and neither of them are as snappy and fast. If Calzaghe goes in thinking he can't be hurt by RJJ, he will get KOed, or at least hurt badly (if RJJ is out to get the KO that is, we've seen what his power can do to a man), so he has to be very careful not to get wrapped up in his own "legend".

I don't really know what else to say about 'zaghe as I don't think he has a very flexible game. I don't see him counterpunching Roy or dancing around him. He'll have to keep coming forward and applying pressure to him.

Overall I think that with their current skillsets that RJJ has an advantage going into the fight. A lot of people will look at this and say "man Calzaghe should win". But I think this is RJJ's fight to win and if Calzaghe does beat him, depending on RJJ's level of play, I'll have mad respect for the man.

RJJ by UD, possible KO. But Calzaghe has a chance.

Pretty good post. Most of your points about what the boxers can and can't do are sound. I disagree with you when you say you don't think that Joe's game is flexible. I'd say Calzaghe is one of the most flexible fighters out there, able to adapt terifically to his opponent. He is very quick at working out how he can be hurt and avoiding it.

I aslo think that you underestimate Calzaghe in general and are overestimating Jones. I can see why you give Roy a chance, but as I have posted before, there is no basis for making him the favourite for the fight. Of course we always pick our favourite boxers in the end, I do it too, and that's the reason forums can exist. All in all its nice to hear from a Jones fan who is prepared to give Calzaghe some respect.
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Bmw iv history

[abadger]

Sounds reasonable and fair enough... Although as you stated here:

With Roy, whose defence is to cover up and take shots on arms and gloves, Calzaghe will be able to get much more extension on his punches, he will be able to step back from the defending Jones and throw much more solid and fluid combinations than against Hopkins.

I think the stepping back will be trouble for Joe, as that is exactly what Roy will be looking for... Joe comes in, does his flurries, steps out, and as hes stepping out, is when the fast right hands come in. Also I believe Roys power is much, much more than Bernards, and he does throw combinations, unlike Bernard, who was pretty much a one punch and clinch in that fight.

Should be a very interesting fight, I expect an intense chess match.

Yep. The more I think about it, the more I am liking the idea of this fight. If it happens in Wales I will do my best to go for sure.
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Honda nr

[Vigilant3]

Yeah, I know that most RJJ fans will whine about how he isn't in his prime right now so the fight doesn't mean anything.

There is some truth to that, the fight doesn't mean anything--for Roy Jones Jr. But, just because it doesn't mean anything to RJJ doesn't take away for what it could mean for Calzaghe. I really truly belive that Calzaghe didn't gain anything from the fight with Hopkins--if anything it put his 'legacy' in doubt. I'd much rather see him fight Jones because, at this point in time, I think Jones is the better competitor.

Like I said I wasn't talking about his adaptability when I said he wasn't flexible. I mean that he just has a very one-tracked gameplan in that all he ever does is throw punches in bunches. Most of his adaptability remains on the defensive end. Defensive timing and so forth.

The reasons that I posted give me a basis for making RJJ the favorite for this fight; but, like I said, Calzaghe is far from out of it. I wouldn't say 50/50, as I think it's Roy's fight to win; but, Calzaghe definitely could win and I think it would be a good win for him especially if it's done in an impressive fashion.