A Deep look into Mayweather, Pacquiao, Canelo and GGG's Risk History

[Chollo Vista]

As many of you know, betting odds gives a chance to look into how "risky" a fight is "at the time" that it happens which all play a role in evaluating a fighters legacy and greatness. Let's look into some of the most famous, some would even argue "great", fighters in the last 20 years:

(Per Odds Shark)

Mayweather
- Conor McGregor -350
- Andre Berto -3000
- Manny Pacquiao -200
- Marcos Maidana -600
- Marcos Maidana -900
- Canelo Alvarez -300
- Robert Guerrero -600
- Miguel Cotto -700
- Victor Ortiz -500
- Shane Mosley -400
- Juan Manuel Marquez -360
- Ricky Hatton -240
- Oscar De La Hoya -190 or 3 to 2 underdog
- Carlos Baldomir -700
- Zab Judah -500
- Shambra Mitchell -950
- Arturo Gatti -400
- Henry Bruseles -2000
- Corrales - 120
- Castillo ? Couldn't find
- Hernandez? Couldn't find

Pacquiao

-Thurman -120
- Broner -227
- Mathysse -230
- Jeff Horn -600
- Jessie Vargas -900
- Timothy Bradley -245
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. +160
- Chris Algieri -700
- Timothy Bradley -280
- Brandon Rios -550
- Juan Manuel Marquez -220
- Timothy Bradley -450
- Juan Manuel Marquez -1100
- Shane Mosley -850
- Antonio Margarito -450
- Joshua Clottey -600
- Miguel Cotto -270
- Ricky Hatton -225
- Oscar De La Hoya +160
- David Diaz -600
- Juan Manuel Marquez -210
- Marco Antonio Barrera -330
- Jorge Solis -850
- Erik Morales -180
- Oscar Larios -600
- Barrera - Barerra was 3 to 1 favorite
- Ledwaba - was 10 to 1 favorite


Canelo

- Kovalev -400
- Jacobs -500
- Fielding -2500
- Gennady Golovkin +155 - - -
- Gennady Golovkin +150
- Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -425
- Liam Smith -1400
- Amir Khan -650
- Miguel Cotto -300
- James Kirkland -900
- Erislandy Lara -285
- Alfredo Angulo -670
- Floyd Mayweather +235
- Austin Trout -220
- Josesito Lopez -2000
- Shane Mosley -605
- Kermit Cintron -1200
- Alfonso Gomez -2200
- Ryan Rhodes -890
- Matthew Hatton -1500
- Lovemore N’dou -2000
- Carlos Baldomir -1700
- Luciano Leonel Cuello -1200


Golovkin

Ouma - 14 to 1
Simon - 25 to 1
Proksa - 4 to 1
Rosado - 34 to 1
Ishida - 50 to 1
Macklin - 12 to 1
Stevens - 15 to 1
Adama - 9 to 1
Geale - 7 to 1
Rubio 20 to 1
Murray - 20 to 1
Monroe Jr - 25 to 1
Lemieux - 13 to 1
Wade - 70 to 1
Brook - 7.5 to 1
Jacobs - 4.8 to 1
Canelo - 1.8 to 1
Vanes - 25 to 1
Canelo - 1.9 to 1
Derv - 4.5 to 1
Szeemeta - 42 to 1

Lastly, I wanted to see when these guy's were really good or really bad in betting odds. I tallied when they were an underdog, 5 to 1 or less favorite or 20 to 1 or more favorite. Here's what I got:

Mayweather
- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0 (Possibly Corrales, De La Hoya or Castillo? I can't find supporting data on Corrales/Castillo. I did read that DLH closed as a 3 to 2 favorite, during ring walks. I can't verify accuracy though.
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 10
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 2

Pacquiao
– Bouts in which he was the underdog – 6 (Mayweather, De La Hoya, Barerra, Morales, Sasakul and Ledwaba).
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 17
- Bouts in which he was a 20 to 1 favorite or more - 0

Canelo

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 3 (Mayweather, Golovkin 1 and 2)
- Bouts in which he was a 5 to 1 favorite or less – 9
- Bouts in which he was the 20 to 1 favorite or more - 3

Golovkin

- Bouts in which he was the underdog – 0
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 5 to 1 or less – 5
- Bouts in which he was a favorite by 20 to 1 or more - 8


In conclusion:

- Most amount of times as underdog - Pacquiao with 6
- Most amount of times in fights as 5 to 1 favorite or less - Pac with 19
- Most amount of times in fights as 20 to 1 or more favorite - Golovkin with 8

[Chollo Vista]

For context:

Roy was an underdog against Toney... Not sure exact numbers
Hopkins was a 2 to 1 underdog against Trinidad
Leonard was a 2.5 to 1 underdog against Hagler
Ali was a 4 to 1 underdog against Foreman
Ali was a 7 to 1 underdog against Liston

[JohnCastellanos]

Great work Chollo Vista

[ShoulderRoll]

Why didn't you post Golovkin's odds in the same format that you did Floyd's and Pacquiao's?

That would have made it easier to compare apples to apples.

[Chollo Vista]

Why didn't you post Golovkin's odds in the same format that you did Floyd's and Pacquiao's?

That would have made it easier to compare apples to apples.

Odds shark didn't have everything and I was getting tired manipulating the data so I took what I already had from G's resume. But here you go, I hope this helps.

- Canelo Alvarez -190 - - -
W Vanes Martirosyan -2500 KO 2 1:53
Draw Canelo Alvarez -185 Split Draw 12 3:00
W Daniel Jacobs -480 Decision (Unanimous) 12 3:00
W Kell Brook -750 TKO 5 1:52
W Dominic Wade -7000 KO 2 2:37
W David Lemieux -1300 TKO 8 1:32
W Willie Monroe Jr. -2500 TKO 6 0:45
W Martin Murray -2000 TKO 11 0:50
W Marco Antonio Rubio -2000 KO 2 1:19
W Daniel Geale -750 TKO 3 2:47
W Osumanu Adama -9000 TKO 7 1:20
W Curtis Stevens -1550 Corner Retirement 8 3:00
W Matthew Macklin -1200 KO 3 1:22
W Nobuhiro Ishida -5000 KO 3 2:11
W Gabriel Rosado -3450 TKO 7 2:46
W Grzegorz Proksa -450 TKO 5 1:11
W Makoto Fuchigami -1600 TKO 3 1:17
W Lajuan Simon -2575 KO 1 2:17
W Kassim Ouma -1400 TKO

I don't have time to manipulate the data right now

[ShoulderRoll]

Odds shark didn't have everything and I was getting tired manipulating the data so I took what I already had from G's resume. But here you go, I hope this helps.

- Canelo Alvarez -190 - - -
W Vanes Martirosyan -2500 KO 2 1:53
Draw Canelo Alvarez -185 Split Draw 12 3:00
W Daniel Jacobs -480 Decision (Unanimous) 12 3:00
W Kell Brook -750 TKO 5 1:52
W Dominic Wade -7000 KO 2 2:37
W David Lemieux -1300 TKO 8 1:32
W Willie Monroe Jr. -2500 TKO 6 0:45
W Martin Murray -2000 TKO 11 0:50
W Marco Antonio Rubio -2000 KO 2 1:19
W Daniel Geale -750 TKO 3 2:47
W Osumanu Adama -9000 TKO 7 1:20
W Curtis Stevens -1550 Corner Retirement 8 3:00
W Matthew Macklin -1200 KO 3 1:22
W Nobuhiro Ishida -5000 KO 3 2:11
W Gabriel Rosado -3450 TKO 7 2:46
W Grzegorz Proksa -450 TKO 5 1:11
W Makoto Fuchigami -1600 TKO 3 1:17
W Lajuan Simon -2575 KO 1 2:17
W Kassim Ouma -1400 TKO

I don't have time to manipulate the data right now

Better. Thanks for doing that.

[Chollo Vista]

Better. Thanks for doing that.

No problem, brother.

[billeau2]

For context:

Roy was an underdog against Toney... Not sure exact numbers
Hopkins was a 2 to 1 underdog against Trinidad
Leonard was a 2.5 to 1 underdog against Hagler
Ali was a 4 to 1 underdog against Foreman
Ali was a 7 to 1 underdog against Liston

For Mayweather,
Gatti was only -400 that is amazing. Pac was -200 by comparison.
And Roy being an underdog against Toney. I can at least attribute that one to hindsight.

[EDDIE SPERM]

From greatest 2 worst so GGGroupie the WOAT? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

[Chollo Vista]

For Mayweather,
Gatti was only -400 that is amazing. Pac was -200 by comparison.
And Roy being an underdog against Toney. I can at least attribute that one to hindsight.

I just realized Ward was an underdog against Kessler and Leonard was a considerable underdog against Hearns.

With the Gatti fight, I remember giving him a great punchers chance before the fight; especially since Floyd was going up in weight, I wasn't sure how he'd respond to the punches from a bigger man.