Andre hasn't changed much but he hasn't had to
I first saw Andre Berto fight as an amateur during the Florida Golden Gloves in 2002 (A picture of the two of us appeared in KO magazine). Facing a tall lanky boxer he dominated on the inside but seemed to let up quickly. This allowed the other fighter to start scoring regularly even though he was too far behind to win on points. Andre has carried this same dominant style to the pros where he tends to overwhelm opponents whom he can reach but again those with more length of arm or height have better leverage against him.
When it comes to skill, heart, chin and power he is as good as anyone at 147. In terms of style I see him having trouble against Magarito, Williams and Mosley. Because of his height and aspirations outside the ring I don't think he can move up to 154 so his career might be short.
The Perfect Practice Style
Juan Urango is built for Berto at this stage in his career. Having just fought a quick, slick southpaw in Collazo; Berto will now be fighting a plodding pressure style southpaw. Urango is slower than Collazo, he gets hit easier and he pushes forward which will line him up with Andre's tendency to throw his strongest punches as counters. Urango has proven to be very durable so even at 147 I don't think Andre can take him out but in terms of technical skills this fight will be pretty one sided.
In terms of picks, Andre has some serious competition at Welter but it's the kind that can topple him. His promoter will probably take his time, space his exposure and line im up for a big money main event by the end of the year. I'm not sure who that would be...
Go Gomez!!!!
In a perfect world, Juan Carlos Gomez would have got a title shot years ago. We would all prefer to see these fighters when they are at their peak. Gomez was ready for prime time when he beat Sinam Samil Sam on an HBO undercard. On that night he was throwing one hundred punches a round and making an otherwise decent opponent appear lackluster.
In terms of tactics against Vitali, all Gomez can do is use what speed he has left to tag the big man with jabs while stepping around that wicked left hook. Perhaps he could throw quick combos on the inside before tying him up. It's still unlikely to work but I love underdogs so I'll be rooting for the black panther.
400 Fights might be too many
Rigondeaux clearly has sculpted talent furnished over a long and brilliant amateur career but was it too long? Becoming a professional means leaving behind some of the things that made you good as an amateur. Rigondeaux can blast through or pick apart his first ten or fifteen opponents without much alteration of his style but after that, can he learn to change? Can he speed up his style when facing a busier fighter? Can he force a constant jab when up against a faster boxer? Or is his style set in stone and subject to its limitations?
Age has taken its toll
I was 11-1-1 (3) as an amateur but that was a long time ago. Most of my bouts were at 135 pds. My best fighting weight was 150 pds. At 5'9" I'd be a hair shorter than the average height but I think that is where I could hang onto some power.
I once got a chance to turn pro but they wanted to match me with this little known kid from New York. At the time he was 6-0. The promoter thought that I wouldn't have heard of him - his name was Paulie Malinaggi. To be honest I seriously thought about it even though I knew that Paulie would have knocked me silly. :owned2:
Thanks to age and genetics, I now weight 180.
Taking a Punch - from personal experience
In my second amateur fight I ate huge right hands from a kid who was much bigger than me. In that match he dropped me twice, one time I was seeing stars. About a year later I fought the same kid and took those same right hands but I weighed about ten pounds heavier. He couldn't hurt me the same in the rematch. This isn't definitive proof but I could feel the stability difference. By the third round I grew more bold because I knew I could take his shots.
You also have to keep in mind that there are different kinds of shots. Some of which work regardless of weight or muscle flexibility. A clean shot to the temple could black out anyone. An equilibrium shot off the top of the head could wobble even the thickest of fighters. A powerful smack to the ear can send a man's legs out from under him and even pop his eardrum.
The Brothers Stand On the edge of a cliff
I think the reason we can disagree so easily about the true standing of Vlad and Vitali is that they are always one step away from becoming meaningless. Take a look at this weekend for example. If Vitali wins over Gomez then we'll still be arguing about his skills or deserved level of credibility - but, if he loses then he's a fake. Vlad seems to be the same way.We're only slightly impressed when he knocks out shorter, slower, less well trained heavyweights so when he gets dropped by one of them we immediately point fingers.
Let's face it, half the reason these two own the top of the division is that the division is weak and that the brothers are physically superior in size and strength. They are the corporations of the heavyweight division who regularly crush small business and then brag about it. I'm sure outside the ring they are great guys and in a way they are good for the expanding identity of the sport but it will be very hard to be a cheerleader for their technical skills until they come up against a challenge that is bigger than they are.
Holt with a cautious win
When Kendall Holt comes to the ring in the proper mindframe (Cautious fear) he changes his fighting style to that of a pure boxer. Against Arnaoutis and Hopkins he knew he could lose if he wasn't careful. His high level of respect for his opponents forced him to keep his distance and rely on the jab using his speed, punch output and reach to walk away with safe wins. If he faces Bradley with the same level of respect then it is hard to see him losing. Bradley doesn't throw enough punches to out pace Holt's jab. Unless Holt gives this away or simply gets caught with an overhand right, I see Holt winning a trepidatious unanimous decision.