Is there such thing as a Lucky Punch?

If you're going to vote that there are such thing as Lucky punches, but Marquez was not lucky...then explain how it wasnt lucky, and show an example of what a lucky punch is....thats the point of this thread! Do you believe in such a thing as a "Lucky Punch?" or does it just happen to be a PERFECT punch? If you believe in Luck, how do you define it and what are some examples? If you don't believe in Luck, then tell me why via solid reasoning or analysis of one of the fights I consider luck mentioned later on in this thread. I for one, believe in Luck...and there is a reason they call it the Theater of the Unexpected....Luck is when preparation & opportunity meet I believe that all the events that come together that result in a KO that one would consider shocking, involves a degree of luck...the circumstances involved at a particular moment are to perfect for me to believe otherwise. If a fighter is pretty much winning the fight to a point where its the decisions they make that will dictate the outcome, and they get KO'd one could argue it was a product of luck (among other things). Here me out. Manny Pacquiao was doing decent in that fight, he was moving a lot more, he was on his feet, his left found a nice cozy home on Marquez's face. I for one, thought he was controlling that majority of the fight (save the KD which ill talk about in a second) ....Pacquiao was the faster fighter, he was the one countering Marquez, feinting, drawing him in and landing far more accurately than Marquez. Round 6, Pacquiao got reckless, walked in a straight line hands completely down, and looked to be leading with a weak jab, right into Marquez....Being a southpaw, and Marquez Orthodox, in a situation like this, an overhand right is textbook..I believe any boxer who knows the basics would know to throw that punch at that particular moment....and Marquez threw that punch, it connected, and KO'd Pacman....now comparing this to the first Knockdown of the fight, Marquez threw a jab, feinted to the body..which brought Pacmans hands down, and Marquez threw a perfect overhand right......that was not luck, that was pure boxing skill....the same punch that finished Pacman in the 6th did not look like that, Marquez was LUCKY that Pacquaio was reckless, and created the perfect opportunity that JMM exploited. Marquez didnt set up any traps, didnt feint Pac into coming forward, didn't do anything to set that punch up..he got lucky that the opportunity presented itself. Now i am not trying to discredit Marquez's victory...he prepared for this fight (PEDs or not), and his power and timing assisted in his victory...but I still think Marquez was lucky and fortunate the event unfolded as they do to allow him to throw a punch that ended the fight. Here are some examples of what I consider Lucky punches/Lucky KO's....its a thin line to argue the existence of a lucky punch, due to the fact these fighters prepare and train there whole lives ...but the opportunities and the time they present themselves..is an uncontrollable event that results in a KO (IMO) ..therefore I consider it luck. Julian Jackson vs Herol Graham - VERY similar to the way Marquez/Pacquiao ended.... Graham (Southpaw) was leading on the scorecards, and was rushing in with a lead left, he dropped his guard and Jackson threw a mean overhand right that connected and KO'd him...I consider this luck, Graham beating up on Jackson, leading on the scorecards...and he got careless, and a combination of luck and Grahams mistake...Jackson was able to get the Knockout... John Tate vs Mike Weaver - Tate was up 12 rounds going into the 15th, he was getting beat hard...out of nowhere, Weaver knocks Tate out COLD ...a fighter who most people figured had no chance at this point, won with a short left hook... All Tate had to do was cruise to a victory, but Weaver was lucky enough that Tate decided to stand in close with his guard down. Arturo Gatti vs Gabriel Ruelas - Gatti was getting brutalized , especially round 5, then in Round 6 ... Ruelas stupidly kept moving forward, got hit with two big body shots, followed by a left hook that connected, a right cross that connected... at this point Ruelas should have backed up or at least kept his hands up, he had plenty of time these werent quick hits, they were slow and powerful.....but after that right hand connected, Gatti threw the same left hook he did before and knocked Ruelas out cold...i consider this luck because Gatti would never have been able to do that if it were not for Ruelas mistake, i mean those situations had to be perfect for a KO to happen..i.e luck George Foreman vs Michael Moorer - Ultimate lucky punch IMO, Foreman 46 years old, slow as a mofo, getting beat and was able to KO Moorer....this fight is infamous shouldn't have to describe why i think this is luck. Roy Jones Jr vs Antonio Tarver II - Only two rounds, but Jones clearly wont hat first round, second round, Jones threw a crappy combination and Tarver threw a hail mary left and BAM knocked down Jones...the moment that occurred everything had to be exactly right, and was a product of circumstance...i.e. luck. Knockouts that I dont consider luck for comparison purposes: Shane Mosley vs Ricardo Mayorga Tommy Hearns vs Roberto Duran Rocky Marciano vs Jersey Joe Walcott Manny Pacquiao vs Ricky Hatton

Comments (20)

lolllll there has been no veil... If you dont think PEDs played a part in the power that Marquez has you are delusional. I accept. That he was Knocked out, I am fully aware he was Knocked out.....buttttt still Luck. Thats like arguing probability, and using it as a measure of the expectation that an event will occur. I see probability as a statistical way to measure luck, if you are a subjectivists, which i am. Applying that theory to this, the expert knowledge aspect in which JMM did train to land that textbook punch eveyr boxer should train for when fighting a southpaw, and liklihood of that punch actually completing its intention. I measured JMMs probability of actually landing that punch as high enough odds to consider it luck, based on his performance throughout the fight, and the fact he GAMBLED ON THE EXACT SAME PUNCH AT THE 10 SECOND MARK, AND FAILED. Thats like arguing that putting $10.00 on 32 on a roulette wheel..if it hits is Luck vs Probability lol dude, JMM wasnt even fully able to complete that punch because Manny's face unpredictably free-falled onto his fist. You could throw that same punch 239874239872398 times and it can hit, but do you honestly think every time it lands its going to be a KO? I dont think so, thats where LUCK comes into play, (or probability if you want to make it a little more technical), there are so many variables that were involved in that specific KO, that i find the probability of it happening high enough to yield it as LUCK. So according to you any punch landed is luck. Everything has to align perfect for a ko to happen the guy throwing the punch had to think ahead guess if his opponent is fainting or punching if he spots an opening coming now he has to decide how hard fast to throw the punch the other guy has time to move or block whats coming. All footwork body motions must be completely perfect.. If he threw the punch, aimed for the chin, and knocked him the eff out its what he intended to do no luck needed just 42 rounds of timing manny

13y ago

ADP02

There was certain degree of luck or at least circumstances in that scenario. For instance, Manny stumbled over Marquez's foot: This made Manny completely miss his punch. If Manny hits Marquez clean then Marquez's return punch would have less on it for one but more than likely, would not connect at the same spot as it did. Manny probably reacted badly due to the stumble. Proof was round #5, Marquez thru the same exact punch while Manny was throwing his punch but Manny didn't stumble and was able to react just enough to absorb the punch properly. Now lets say the stumble had nothing to do with it and it was just plain being too overconfident by Manny. The circumstance that Manny was more reckless in that scenario than in the same punch ion round #5 means that this also depended on something other than what Marquez did. Finally being that there was just a few seconds left, it appeared that both fighters put more on the line. So again if not luck, circumstances were just perfect for that KO to happen. If Manny would have faked a jab and came with his money punch (left hand) the circumstances would have been different and it could have very well be Marquez KOed. but Marquez still needs to get credit because it took guts to do what he did. Marquez usually counters with a punch that comes a split second later than that one came because Marquez usually thinks defense first then punches back. That punch was different.

13y ago

Ringlife

Pac was in there with one of the best counter punchers in this sport. Pac left himself wide open and got hit right on the button. He's not getting up jim he's not getting up jim I love that s**t.

13y ago

BBomber

4:49 that's a lucky punch, McCall had his eyes closed when he threw the left and they were still closed when he threw the right that caught Lewis. It was no lucky punch ,Lewis got a little careless and walked into a hook. It happens, even to great fighters. That said, neither that, nor Garcia's hook against Khan, and surely not JMM's right hand are lucky punches IMO. McCal, and even more so Garcia, swing a bit wildly. -There- I can see a component of luck, for the punch landed perfectly, even though they both had their eyes closed. The component of luck though is in the fact that they connected so lethally, not in the punch itself landing or being thrown. In JMM's case, if that is a lucky punch, almost any effective counterpunch thrown against a come-forward fighter is lucky. JMM was trying it all night, waiting for it to connect. He was slow and missed a few times, even obviously. But eventually his game plan paid off. No luck at all IMO.

13y ago

RlCKY

There's no such thing as "luck" let alone a lucky punch. Things just happen in life, punches landing square, winning the lottery, there is no difference. If you believe that the KO shot Marquez hit Pacquiao with was a lucky shot, then that must mean you believe Marquez's intentions were to tickle Pacquiao with that shot. It's ridiculous, every shot is thrown to do damage to your opponent. Apply the logic to any other sport , lucky hit in baseball, lucky basket in basket ball, lucky goal in hockey....You don't think that they are just accomplishing the very thing they set out to do? It's results.

13y ago

Bolo_Punch7077

You throw with the intention of landing on the other guy. Just because certain punches happen to spark a fighter cold doesn't mean the fighter throwing the punch got lucky.

13y ago

silentbob

jmm's punch was not lucky he did set it up perfectly. but i do believe the circumstances that led to pac being knocked out cold had to have a degree of luck into it. even JMM had to double check if pac was indeed out.

13y ago

Marvellous1

To be honest, I wouldn't bother trying to convince this fraud aboutlucky punches. He revealed further back that he didn't believe it was only luck but PEDs that contributed to this Pacquiao's KO. All the long-winded paragraphs and pseudo-intellect fell away and the threadstarter descended into chants of PEDs and accused me of being delusional because I didn't join in the chants. This is no more than a coping mechanism for a pretty disturbed sycophant that can't accept his hero go planked. Believe me, there are plenty of them on here either seeking solace in accusations of PEDs and demanding extra testing for a possible future bout between Pacquiao and Marquez (although they've always been happy for the commission to do it's job before LOL!), or they're sprouting anti-Mayweather threads. Whatever helps get them through this difficult period, I guess.

13y ago

Jam_Jars

4:49 that's a lucky punch, McCall had his eyes closed when he threw the left and they were still closed when he threw the right that caught Lewis.

13y ago

ussy

If you can watch the video of Marquez taking a step back and countering a PAC miss right on the button and call it as a lucky punch you either don't know how boxing works or you are lying to yourself. That was a perfect counter shot. As good as you will ever see. 100% this...

13y ago

brsrkwr

lucky punches doesn't exists.. there may be errors in your defense or tactics, ecc. but is your fault... and your opponent in this case should be good enough to take advantage of your error.

13y ago

SplitSecond

there is, but juans shot was not, the ko might've been, but even if pacquiao hadn't been sparked clean, he would have been knocked down hard

13y ago

Ray_Corso

Yes there is; But Juan was setting that shot up in every bout with Manny and landing it at times but this time Manny helped! Ray.

13y ago

Nekronicle

Voted the same way. So you believe in the existence of a lucky punch? and Marquez/Pac was not one of them...then what is a lucky punch? Out of the 40+ votes 0 people have given an example.

13y ago

Nekronicle

Save the few posts in which i acknowledged as legit reasoning ... 99.9% of you are only providing arguments for the actual punch that was thrown. You're also acting as if Marquez is in his prime I'll recap my argument and the support 1.) JMM, a boxer, was getting Outboxed by Pacquiao the majority of that fight. He looked slowed, lethargic, and his reflexes looked shot as evident by the amount of punches Pac was able to connect vs JMM's 2.) JMM landed that punch he practiced in round 3, by setting it up wtih a jab and feint, which forced Pac to drop his guard and Marquez landed and knocked him on the Canvas, I acknowledge this as a masterful shot, and not lucky, for comparison purposes. 3.) At the 10 second mark, JMM threw the same punch that Knocked Pacquiao out, without any reason...JMM threw that punch as a gamble..which inherently relies on luck..unless you want to argue gambling has no element of luck. 4.) The actual KO punch - It was a counter punch, Marquez did practice this punch, i have never argued this at all. However, this punch is not like...a Marquez Patent, this is a punch im sure all fighters practice and train for agaisnt a southpaw..its textbook. 5.) the acutal KO... the actual KO came only because of sheer luck, Pacquiao tripped and his head went into a free-fall, meaning he was unable to brace for a shot to the face..in turn rattling his brain around his head in a much more intense way (opposed to if he had braced for it), directly into Marquez fist, LIGHTS OUT. Arguing this aspect as skill or preparation is ridiculous. Nacho Bernstein even said that this was a phenomena. Out of all these points ive suggested as reasoning for my belief in a lucky punch, most of you are only arguing #4...and disregarding everything else. Also, those who voted #3, and believe in a lucky punch, just not this being a lucky punch, HAVE YET TO PROVIDE A SINGLE EXAMPLE!!! other than some hypothetical punch. :pat:

13y ago

TaurusJ27

I voted yes as I saw the third option...looks like I'm among great company :lol1: Voted the same way.

13y ago

Nekronicle

Yet you don't think Pac's KO of Hatton was lucky. :lol1: Do us all a favor and log the f$ck out. lol for this argument to hold any ground, one would have to believe in lucky punches..which you do not.. so if youre going to stick to this, you either have to believe there are such things as a lucky punch...or not continue posting fallacious comments and post a rebuttal with actual substance ...because all you are doing is looking at one aspect of that fight and using that as your sole support...instead of commenting on every point ive made which continues to go ignored Also the fact you are comparing Pac/Hatton to Pac/Marquez in on of its own is mad dumb... considering the main characteristics of those fights are what make them distinct... and why i consider one lucky and the other one not.

13y ago

Nekronicle

The only thing lucky about it was the fact that Pac tripped on Marquez's foot and fell face first into it. It was unfortunate for Pac, but the punch itself was not lucky. The punch was a well timed counter punch that was made more effective by Pac's disorientation at the time it landed. Them's the breaks in boxing. You cant argue that part of the circumstances were based on luck..then turn around and say the Knockout was not luck. When you just stated that luck served as a variable.

13y ago

Light_Speed

lol dude, JMM wasnt even fully able to complete that punch because Manny's face unpredictably free-falled onto his fist. You could throw that same punch 239874239872398 times and it can hit, but do you honestly think every time it lands its going to be a KO? I dont think so, thats where LUCK comes into play, (or probability if you want to make it a little more technical), there are so many variables that were involved in that specific KO, that i find the probability of it happening high enough to yield it as LUCK. Yet you don't think Pac's KO of Hatton was lucky. :lol1: Do us all a favor and log the f$ck out.

13y ago

Nekronicle

Interesting statments you have provided here. The theme of a non biased discussion you had set up from the first post on this thread has now been proved to indeed be a farce. Quite a change of tone from what you just posted...eh? Haha yeah, 14 pages later when ~4 posts have been legit reasoning, and not fallacious insults. You ousted your self with your last post. This whole thread is irrelevant as is your whole argument because you are contaminated with hatred , ill views and biased perceptions about JMM ( accusing him of PEDs etc , denouncing his skill , being in denial etc ) It is pointless and somewhat ridiculous continuing your discussion because of your contaminated views and biased attitude which is what you have structured your whole argument upon. The only thing you wish to accomplish is to have a rant about JMM winning and masking that in the form of a poorly organised discussion which is supposed to be about lucky punches but in actual fact is a thread offloading your anger and biased views onto others. This discussion with you was a waste of time. hahahah, are you seroius?? You're attacking me, and not the argument...that is a fallacy. My opinion on Pac and Marquez have nothing to do with what I consider to be a lucky punch...I literally posted other examples of what i consider lucky punches , ONE OF WHICH IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PAC/MARQUEZ FIGHT My argument's basis is subjective, yet based on clear cut observations. Not conjecture on what I THINK Marquez was thinking at that moment...that is arrogance and ignornace, since nobody here ..NOT EVEN NACHO ..knew what was going on in the mind of JMM at that particular moment in time...it can only be based on unbiased observation.

13y ago