Until Floyd get's beat, I think any fight he goes into will be perceived as a mismatch in his favor, but I think this matchup is much more competitive than most of the fights he has had in the last 7 years.
Cotto is younger than he is. Mosley and DelaHoya were older. Cotto is his size, Marquez and Hatton were smaller. At one point Cotto was a top ten pound for pound fighter and a champion of his weight class. When he was undefeated Cotto-Mayweather was a fight all the fans wanted to see. Now after a few humbling losses, Cotto is perceived, by some, as damaged goods and easy work for Floyd. I think Cotto does have the ability and the motivation to make this a very tough fight.
But Floyd is an older fighter who I think built up his credentials mostly against less than top-notch competition. He fights infrequently and something unexpected could happen. I thought the Ortiz fight was competitive. Punch stat must be counting near misses and grazing blows in Floyd's behalf, because that describes many of the punches Floyd landed.
It depends on what Cotto tries to do. If he actually tries to box with Floyd, it'll be a one-sided UD win for Floyd. If he lets Floyd start walking him down, like he did with Mosley and Ortiz, it'll probably still be a one-sided UD win or possibly a late TKO stoppage by Cotto's corner. His best shot is get Floyd backing up, cut the ring off once he has Floyd backing up, and than keep him on the ropes all night. Easier said than done of course. I think he can get Floyd backing up, but I'm not sure if he can cut the ring off against Floyd. If he can't cut the ring off from him, it'll be a one-sided UD.
So, if I had to place a bet on the fight, I'd obviously go Mayweather by UD, most likely with scores around 118-110/117-111.
I really didn't think Floyd was going to walk Ortiz down, who's arguably bigger on fight night than Cotto is. So, it really wouldn't surprise me if Floyd walks Cotto down the majority of the fight.
As far as being competitive, I don't know. I really didn't think Mayweather-Ortiz was all that competitive aside from a couple moments in rounds 2 and 4, and even in those rounds, Floyd out landed Victor big time. And I viewed Ortiz as something of a threat to Mayweather because of the size, explosive offensive attack, and the youth. Cotto is superior to Ortiz though, but they fight much different.
On a side note, Cotto vs. Ortiz at 154, what a f**king great fight that would be.
If this was SRL vs this version of cotto i might be inclined to say it wont be that competitive. But as it is only Floyd, and not SRL, i assume it will be extremely competitive. A pick em fight at certain points of the fight.
The winner is not clear as it was when it was Pac vs Cotto.
Covering your a$$ I see, 6 to 1 underdog is now consider a pickem fight? but Cotto a 3 to 1 underdog to PAC was clear, got it.
Out of Floyd's last 10 fights...Cotto would most likely be more competitive than Henry Bruseles, Arturo Gatti, Carlos Baldomir, and Sharmba Mitchell. Or who knows, maybe he'll end up exactly like 3 of those 4, TKO under 10, depending how real is Floyd being about standing toe to toe and being aggressive. He did it against Ortiz and Mosley so we'll see.
I think De La Hoya, Hatton, Mosley, Judah, will end up putting Floyd in more trouble than Cotto will. Hatton never had Floyd in that much trouble, but he was competitive early on.
I don't know what to say about Marquez and Ortiz. I think Cotto wouldn't be able to take the punishment Marquez took. But he'll probably lose in similar fashion, a shut out. Marquez is a warrior who can get knocked down, but is very hard to knock out. Ortiz has knocked down/out all of his opponents except for Floyd.
Mayweather-Cotto will be as competitive as an elite fighter vs a B level fighter. That's just what it is.
If this was SRL vs this version of cotto i might be inclined to say it wont be that competitive. But as it is only Floyd, and not SRL, i assume it will be extremely competitive. A pick em fight at certain points of the fight.
The winner is not clear as it was when it was Pac vs Cotto.
I really think this fight is going to be very competetive..between mayweathers low punch output and the 154 weight..this could be a hell of a fight..
Boxrec already gave Cotto the loss, true story.