Hopkins-Calzaghe.... how I see it going...

Come On!! This fight is so easy to figure the outcome. Hopkins will lose a decision by a wide margin. Those picking Hopkins, take off your rose colored glasses your embarrassing yourselves. Hopkins WAS a great fighter but is past his prime and please don't bring up the Tarver win. He showed in his two straight losses to Taylor that if you make him fight and keep him from holding he can't go 12 full rounds anymore. Fighting Tarver he was fighting a shot fighter anyway whose only claim to fame was beating another shot fighter named Jones. Fighters like Hopkins and Dela Hoya are making a new carreer out of almost winning fights well after they should be retired. Hopkins will be out pointed and in the later rounds will get dirty in desperation. While anything can happen in a boxing match this one on paper is an easy fight to pick. Quite frankly if it costs to watch it I wouldn't pay a dime!!! Calzaghe while no spring chicken himself has shown he can still go 12 full rounds and against harder punchers than Hopkins and out box them easilly and thats what your gonna see here, 12 round wide unamious decision for Calzaghe with Hopkins claiming he was robbed in the end. Fans picking Hopkins are the same fans who continue to pick Dela Hoya, they simply can't disconnect there heart from ther brain Heart has nothing to do with it, for me. I picked Hopkins, and think he's a total douche. But it comes down to a few basic points... 1) The US has not been kind to foreign fighters, lately. Calzaghe is going to be out of his country, his comfort zone, and fighting the biggest name of his career. 2) Hopkins is going to be naturally stronger than Joe at 175. Kessler was bigger and stronger, too, but he's a stand-up, very orthodox fighter. Hopkins is dirty, wily and will be happy to make it ugly and rough. 3) Hopkins right hand. Joe has always been open to counter-right. He's been clocked with it many times, in almost every major fight of his. Mitchell, Sheika, Lacy, Kessler, etc etc. Hopkins doesn't have as pretty a right as Kessler, but it's more effective, and I think he will look to land it more. Hopkins won't just step back and continue to get pushed back like Kessler. Hopkins will stand and scrap and grab and hold and maul and counter before he's on his heels all night. I predict a fight-changing right hand from Hopkins in the mid-late rounds. 4) As we saw with the Hatton-Mayweather scoring, Joe will not get the benefit of the doubt in any round. If the fight goes the distance, and I think it probably will, then look for Hopkins to get the close rounds. Hopkins isn't loved by boxing world, but the US judges/refs/promoters have really seemed to pull together when a foreign fighter comes here to fight a US champ. As I said in my first post, Joe can win this fight, but he's going to have to turn the clock back and punch his ass off in the first couple rounds. Hopkins will absolutely go defensive if that happens, and you'll see Calzaghe win the way Taylor did against him. But I don't think that's part of Joe's plan. I think he just thinks he's too active for Hopkins and fighting his normal fight will do it. Hopkins is as smart as a fence-post outside of the ring, but he knows the game in the ring and he knows who he's up against and he's just not going to want to go out with a loss to Calzaghe (a "white boy") in his last fight. You'll see determination and desperation like you never saw against Taylor or Wright. It's a tough pick, and more than anything else, I'm going with my gut. My gut tells me Hopkins pulls this off.

Come On!! This fight is so easy to figure the outcome. Hopkins will lose a decision by a wide margin. Those picking Hopkins, take off your rose colored glasses your embarrassing yourselves. Hopkins WAS a great fighter but is past his prime and please don't bring up the Tarver win. He showed in his two straight losses to Taylor that if you make him fight and keep him from holding he can't go 12 full rounds anymore. Fighting Tarver he was fighting a shot fighter anyway whose only claim to fame was beating another shot fighter named Jones. Fighters like Hopkins and Dela Hoya are making a new carreer out of almost winning fights well after they should be retired. Hopkins will be out pointed and in the later rounds will get dirty in desperation. While anything can happen in a boxing match this one on paper is an easy fight to pick. Quite frankly if it costs to watch it I wouldn't pay a dime!!! Calzaghe while no spring chicken himself has shown he can still go 12 full rounds and against harder punchers than Hopkins and out box them easilly and thats what your gonna see here, 12 round wide unamious decision for Calzaghe with Hopkins claiming he was robbed in the end. Fans picking Hopkins are the same fans who continue to pick Dela Hoya, they simply can't disconnect there heart from ther brain

Are you serious? This is a massive mismatch. Calzaghe TKO within 6. Calzaghe will be under rated his entire career. Until he retires than we will realise how great he was. Joe certainly has a chance, as I said, but he will not win by a TKO within 6, I can assure you of that. LOL

The best weapon Hopkins has is his use of the headbutt. The only way Hopkins beats Calzaghe is if the referee lets him use his illegal tactics and the judges give him a hometown decision. JC knows he will have to most likely KO Hop and he will go for the KO and get it IMO. JC TKO over Hopkins in 9.

calzaghe -hopkins calzaghe is due for a loss soon but it wont be in this fight -hes an unorthadox fighter who gives everyone trouble because of his unorthodox style and punching angles-can he take it on the chin? we should find out in this fight but i think he land a lot more than b-hop thre fore descion calzaghe

Good post, I agree with many of your points, but I do not see Hopkins winning. However, I do see Calzaghe getting into some difficulty in the later rounds. Calzaghe is getting older, and he is losing his stamina, but I am not sure he knows how much. The same pace he pushed against Kessler could leave his tank empty this time around. The Kessler fight was the first time I saw signs of aging in Joe. There were several rounds where I could tell that he was having difficulty with his pace, but he did not seem to want to admit it to himself, although he did touch on it in the post fight interview. I have a feeling that he will be pushing a pace that he can not keep. He will gas in the later rounds, look horrible, and win a UD on the points lead he built up in the early rounds. I think Calzaghe can out smart Hopkins, he can out work Hopkins, and he can probably out punch Hopkins. But he needs to realize he is getting older, he needs to turn back his work rate a bit, and he needs to fight a little smarter. Maybe he should throw 800 punches in the fight instead of 1000, maybe he should fight in spurts with Hopkins. What ever he does, he cant just go in and try to knock Hopkins out, it doesn't work. The fight will not look pretty, Calzaghe just needs to make sure it looks like he is the one making it that way.

Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him I don't think Hopkins is naturally the bigger man at all. What weight does he walk around at? Joe's natural weight is approx. 196lbs. Joe is naturally closer to heavyweight than super middle. Calzaghe by wide UD. That's the only way I see this fight going.

A lot of great posts in this thread. In short I believe the yanks generally are seriously underestimating JoeC. I honestly dont think Hopkins will win more than a round or 2. Joe is a very special fighter. (I'm not welsh and I dont nuthug. Just a fight-fan).

We disagree on that one. You think that Hopkins was just being defensive for 8 rounds against Taylor because he didn't have the energy anymore? I know what a wary fighter looks like, and I can tell you that Hopkins was worried about getting caught and thought Taylor would gas out and fall off (which Taylor did, but he won enough rounds before he gassed, to win). Taylor was full of nervous energy, and throwing his haymakers. I honestly believe Hopkins had the energy to go an active 12 rounds and beat Taylor. He just didn't do it. I think that loss was a mental one, a miscalculation, not a sign of physical demise. No it may have been mental, but at 40 years old it would be hard to make 160 pounds and keep a constant rate like that. I mean in the second fight, he already knew this time that he had the power to hurt Taylor and win rounds. If it had to be mental I think Bernard thought he had rounds in the bank and I don't blame him. Those two fights were close, which I personally scored for Hopkins, but I can see a case for Taylor. Taylor can, or more importantly, Hopkins believed he could. Ouma would like to disagree. I don't think it was really Hopkins was too cautious it was either A. He couldn't because he didn't have the energy anymore at 160 or B. he was over confident in thinking he was winning rounds.

It's definetely this one for this fight. Maybe the big advantage one too. Not really. If anything Hopkins didn't have the stamina to keep a constant pace at Middleweight anymore since he was 40. At Lightheavy, he's more refreshed and can keep a better pace. Nowhere near his prime though. This is really the only thing I disagreed one. Bernard makes a lot of adjustments. He picked up the pace against De La Hoya in his fight and picked him apart. Against Winky he adjusted to Winky's agression when Winky tried to jump him. They are suttle adjustments, but that's why he's so effective in making the other guy fight his fights. Little adjustments here and there throwing the other guy off. We disagree on that one. You think that Hopkins was just being defensive for 8 rounds against Taylor because he didn't have the energy anymore? I know what a wary fighter looks like, and I can tell you that Hopkins was worried about getting caught and thought Taylor would gas out and fall off (which Taylor did, but he won enough rounds before he gassed, to win). Taylor was full of nervous energy, and throwing his haymakers. I honestly believe Hopkins had the energy to go an active 12 rounds and beat Taylor. He just didn't do it. I think that loss was a mental one, a miscalculation, not a sign of physical demise. As for the DLH fight, yes you're right he stepped it up and got DLH off his game, because Hopkins saw he was being outworked. But DLH's power is not even in the Taylor ballpark. That was an easy adjustment. He does make them, but most feel DLH's early good work was more a result of a gentleman's agreement they had, rather than DLH actually befuddling Hopkins early. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I just think Hopkins was taking a couple rounds to feel DLH's strength and get used to his speed. Once he felt that DLH had nothing for him, then he just stepped it up and put it on him, which he could have done from the opening bell, let's face it. With Winky, yeah, you may be right, but I think it was more a case of knowing Winky is an arm-puncher. He was probably a little surprised by Winky's agression, but he mainly knew that Winky is not going to stop you with one punch. Taylor can, or more importantly, Hopkins believed he could. The real question is- does Hopkins think Calzaghe can end or change the fight with one punch or flurry? If he doesn't, he's probably going to win a close fight, like he did with Winky (I thought that fight was a little closer than the judges had it). But if Joe can get him worrying about a big punch early, then he may be able to back him up and outwork him like Taylor did. But I just don't think Hopkins will allow himself to get outworked by Joe unless he's worried about catching a hard punch the wrong way. Hopkins knows who he's fighting and he knows how many punches per round he's going to see.

Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now. It's definetely this one for this fight. Maybe the big advantage one too. The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. Not really. If anything Hopkins didn't have the stamina to keep a constant pace at Middleweight anymore since he was 40. At Lightheavy, he's more refreshed and can keep a better pace. Nowhere near his prime though. and doesn't really make adjustments This is really the only thing I disagreed one. Bernard makes a lot of adjustments. He picked up the pace against De La Hoya in his fight and picked him apart. Against Winky he adjusted to Winky's agression when Winky tried to jump him. They are suttle adjustments, but that's why he's so effective in making the other guy fight his fights. Little adjustments here and there throwing the other guy off.

This couldnt be farther from the truth, I could pick almost everything you said apart, hard to believe you have watched Hopkins the last ten years and came up with this. Totally wrong. Go for it. LOL

I haven't been too into the boards lately, or religiously watching as much boxing as I used to, for those of you who were around a few years ago know, but this is a fight that certainly intrigues me, as I've watched both of these guys fight for the past ten years at least. Here's how I see it, for those of you who are betting on it, points...money...whatever... Now this fight is at least 7 years overdue, and I confess I said Hopkins would never take this fight, but he's finally found the stars aligning just right. Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him, and I think Hopkins liked what he saw from Joe against Kessler. Joe didn't throw much with real power, used those big gloves, and seemed to have lost just a little and like I said, Hopkins thinks the time is right, finally. Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now. The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. I saw someone try to compare Joe's power to Jermaine's in another thread, and ask if Joe punches harder. Yes, I think Joe's a little stronger than Jermaine, and yes if he sells out on a shot it's going to be harder than Taylor's punches, but Taylor sold out several times per early round, every round, against Hopkins in their first fight, and even though most of them missed or were blocked, they still won him the fights. Why? Because Hopkins fights very cautiously. He wanted no part of those punches, thought that Taylor would tire and miscalculated when to push the fight, once the steam came of Taylor's punches around the 7th-8th round (but it was too late by then). Joe would be wise to learn from that. Hopkins is a physical specimen, and really has no weaknesses there, and his boxing game doesn't have many weaknesses either, except inactivity and overcautiousness. That is the way to beat him: mentally. Because Hopkins is a smart fighter, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. If Joe can get his respect early, put him on the defensive, and put a lot of cautiousness in Hopkins, then he wins. If he lets Hopkins get comfortable early, or isn't active or pushing Hopkins back, then he's in trouble. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hopkins. Hopkins is going to be naturally a little bigger and stronger than Joe, and he's going to give Joe the ring I believe, and try to move back and counter. Joe is certainly there to be hit at times, and Hopkins is going to look for a big counter-right hand, probably around the middle rounds. I believe if Joe uses those poofy gloves and tries to beat Hopkins with a swarm of light activity, as with Kessler, then I think he will lose and get overwhelmed by either a Hopkins swarm or a big counter in the mid-lates. Joe needs to use the tighter gloves he fought Lacy with, hands be damned, and needs to sell-out on some big shots early, esp on the inside. It doesn't matter if they miss or not, they will make Hopkins cautious and fearful of getting caught with a big punch. And then Joe could conceivably coast to victory just by keeping Hopkins off-balance and on the defensive. Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. Hopkins always thinks he's right, and always thinks he's winning, and really only listens to Hopkins. But I don't think Joe has that in him anymore. 10 years ago, five years ago, even three years ago, Joe beats Hopkins handily. But unlike many out there, I didn't like what I saw from Joe against Kessler. It was dominant and impressive, yes, but it doesn't add up to a victory against Hopkins. And I'm not sure if Joe can turn back the clock and wake that dragon again. He will need to, and will need to punch bigger and have better defense than he has shown lately in order to have a chance. So, in the end, bet on Hopkins if you have to bet. Vegas just hasn't been good to the overseas fighters, and I think Joe has faded just enough for the move up in weight to work against him. Hopkins is just going to be stronger and more natural at 175. It'll be fun to watch, either way. :) Great annalists. I see the fight going the same say. Calzaghe admitted that he looks better fighting come forward/pressure fighters instead of layed back tactical fighters Sweet

Me either, people are always quick to bring up Hopkins' age, but Archie Moore won the LHW title at 45, Foreman was almost 46 when he stopped Moorer, and almost 49 when I thought he beat a prime Shannon Briggs. Hopkins has alway been in phenominal shape and looked very good in his last two fights. I just hope whoever wins this gets their due credit. Hopkins' age is irrelevant. It looks to me like Joe has slowed more than Hopkins has, actually. Everyone gets hung up on age as numbers. "Age" as determined in boxing terms is a formula which includes age as a number, but factors in how much punishment a fighter has taken, how they fight, how they train, how they spar, how hard of an amateur career they had, and just genetically how age has affected them. Hopkins has been partly genetically lucky not to have fallen off, and partly because he protects himself very well and hasn't been in but a few fights where he's taken punishment, and not one of those in a long time. I mean, Vargas is what---30? And the guy has been done for years. Other fighters haven't even gotten their careers good and started until they turn 30. Age is not a number in boxing. It's a lot more than that. Both Hopkins and Calzaghe are past the "Best if Used By" expiration date by conventional boxing standards, but both have still proven to be on top and either should absolutely get their due credit for a win.

Interesting analysis. I agree that Calzaghe's key to winning is to make Hopkins overly defensive and he has to do that by being active, workrate will be his best weapon in this fight, but when he opens up, he has to remember not to let his left hand drop like he does sometimes because Hopkins can really hurt him with counter right hands. I don't really think Hopkins will be much stronger than Calzaghe at 175 though, Calzaghe has had some trouble making 168 for a while so his body should feel stronger at 175. I didn't see much fading in the Kessler fight so I think he will be OK. I think Calzaghe will win a tough decision, but I never count Hopkins out and wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins. Me either, people are always quick to bring up Hopkins' age, but Archie Moore won the LHW title at 45, Foreman was almost 46 when he stopped Moorer, and almost 49 when I thought he beat a prime Shannon Briggs. Hopkins has alway been in phenominal shape and looked very good in his last two fights. I just hope whoever wins this gets their due credit.

Good post. I agree Joe needs to "sell out" on some punches. I think when Hopkins moves back and right, and when he ducks down too low (which he does illegally in every fight, btw.) Joe's hands will be in 'Nard's face. I think Joe will surprise everyone with an early KD and then dominate the fight to a ten-point decision. But I will be nervous, as there are too many variables. It's the last thirty seconds of every round that will count. After all kinds of hugging and infighting, look for Joe to flurry to finish off every stanza

Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. This is a good point, which kind of makes me wonder why he's assembled this "Dream Team" of trainers.

Interesting analysis. I agree that Calzaghe's key to winning is to make Hopkins overly defensive and he has to do that by being active, workrate will be his best weapon in this fight, but when he opens up, he has to remember not to let his left hand drop like he does sometimes because Hopkins can really hurt him with counter right hands. I don't really think Hopkins will be much stronger than Calzaghe at 175 though, Calzaghe has had some trouble making 168 for a while so his body should feel stronger at 175. I didn't see much fading in the Kessler fight so I think he will be OK. I think Calzaghe will win a tough decision, but I never count Hopkins out and wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins.

Maybe Bernard liked what he saw in Calzaghe/Kessler, but only because he thinks Kessler is a bum. He is wrong.