Now this is an idea boxing’s beloved, inexplicably loyal leader of the Demetrius Andrade Fan Club could sell to frustrated fight fans.
As Chris Mannix and I began recording a segment Thursday night for his popular podcast, the DAZN analyst and longtime Sports Illustrated boxing writer offered a seemingly simple solution to Canelo Alvarez’s apparent dilemma. Why, Mannix wondered aloud, can’t Canelo “split the baby?”
In other words, why does Alvarez, by far boxing’s biggest star in the United States, have to choose between Al Haymon/Showtime and Eddie Hearn/DAZN?
DAZN and Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing have offered the Mexican superstar a two-fight deal that could become worth as much as $100 million to face unbeaten WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol and rival Gennadiy Golovkin in back-to-back bouts.
In this scenario, Alvarez, boxing’s undisputed super middleweight champion, would move back up to the light heavyweight division to battle Bivol, probably on May 7. If he were to beat Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs), Alvarez would drop down again to square off against Golovkin in a 168-pound championship match targeted for September 17.
If the four-division champion were to accept the package presented by Haymon’s Premier Boxing Champions and Showtime, he would face at least Jermall Charlo in a super middleweight championship match May 7. That would require Houston’s Charlo (32-0, 22 KOs), the WBC middleweight champion, to move up from the 160-pound limit to the 168-pound division.
If Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) were to conquer Charlo, Haymon and Showtime’s Stephen Espinoza would want Alvarez to face undefeated David Benavidez in his subsequent bout. Haymon and Espinoza obviously want a multi-fight commitment from Alvarez, but they would work with him on a bout-by-bout basis if he only wanted to commit to facing Charlo next.
Here’s where Mannix might be on to something.
Alvarez clearly has all the leverage, as everyone wants to be in business with the sport’s cash cow and the fighter commonly considered boxing’s best, pound-for-pound. Why, then, can he not work with both Haymon/Showtime and Hearn/DAZN for his next two fights?
It isn’t ideal for those two competing factions because they want a multi-fight commitment from Alvarez for obvious reasons. But getting him for one fight apiece is better than not getting him at all.
The potential complication, of course, is that if Charlo were to upset Alvarez, you would think Alvarez would exercise his contractual right to an immediate rematch.
Still, this compromise would especially benefit DAZN, which needs some sort of win in boxing’s unforgiving court of public opinion as it trudges through a winter schedule heavy on fights in England and short on meaningful fights in its underserved U.S. market.
It also wouldn’t hurt the public perception of that streaming service if it doesn’t charge premium prices on pay-per-view for back-to-back Canelo fights after promising “death to pay-per-view” when it ambitiously launched in the U.S. market in the fall of 2018. Back then, DAZN signed Alvarez to a 10-fight deal that could’ve become worth $365 million.
Its primary goal late in 2018, before it even locked Golovkin into a six-fight contract, was to stream Canelo-Golovkin III to its customers for their base subscription price. As DAZN executives new and old learned invaluable lessons the hard way, they now realize they need the traditional pay-per-view model to help provide the exorbitant purses Alvarez and Golovkin would command for a third showdown even some hardcore boxing fans feel is past its expiration date.
However a significant faction of boxing fans feel about Canelo-Golovkin III, DAZN’s decision-makers seemed determined to throw as much money is necessary at both boxers to finally make it happen in 2022.
Kazakhstan’s Golovkin (41-1-1, 36 KOs) needs to defeat Japan’s Ryota Murata, the WBA world middleweight champion, whenever their 160-pound title unification fight is rescheduled to secure his own spot in a third bout versus Alvarez. Assuming he overcomes Murata (16-2, 13 KOs), Golovkin would be 40 and comparatively inactive if he were to battle Alvarez again September 17.
Alvarez, who would be 32 at the time of their third fight, would have to be considered a wider favorite than ever over Golovkin in large part due to his age and activity advantages. Canelo-Golovkin III is still considered a marquee matchup, at least commercially, in an industry that almost always has difficulty drumming up interest in its pay-per-view events.
The same cannot be said for Canelo-Bivol. Russia’s Bivol is a good boxer, but not enough of a puncher to be considered a true threat to knock out Alvarez, who has displayed one of boxing’s most reliable chins throughout his career.
Bivol’s boxing ability and movement might give Alvarez some trouble, but Bivol’s demeanor outside of the ring, coupled with his technical style, might make him the least attractive alternative among the four aforementioned potential opponents for Alvarez.
Charlo is a polarizing trash-talker, far different from the reserved Bivol. That’s part of what makes the former IBF junior middleweight champion a more appealing opponent for Alvarez’s next fight than Bivol, that he can help sell their super middleweight championship match and make it a threat to surpass the nearly 800,000 buys Alvarez’s 11th-round, technical-knockout victory over another PBC fighter, Caleb Plant, produced November 6.
Eddy Reynoso, Alvarez’s head trainer and manager, issued a statement Thursday to clarify that his fighter hasn’t made up his mind about which deal he’ll take. Reynoso went public to refute a report published Wednesday that indicated Alvarez had all but decided to rejoin forces with DAZN and Hearn’s Matchroom, which became Alvarez’s promotional representative after his well-documented split with longtime promoter Golden Boy Promotions in the fall of 2020.
Beating Bivol would move Alvarez into position to fight the winner between IBF/WBC light heavyweight champ Artur Beterbiev (17-0, 17 KOs) and WBO champ Joe Smith Jr. (28-3, 22 KOs), if they finally fight later this year. But fighting Charlo probably would help Alvarez earn more money from his guarantee and pay-per-view upside because theirs is a more marketable fight than Alvarez-Bivol.
The most profitable path overall for Alvarez is to fight Charlo and, if he wins, then Golovkin. And don't be naive in thinking this is all about legacy, because Alvarez understandably cares a whole lot about how much money he'll make for these next two fights.
That said, since Alvarez is so uniquely positioned and possesses more leverage than any boxer in the sport, what’s stopping him, exactly, from informing Haymon/Showtime and Hearn/DAZN that he wants to fight Charlo next? And, if he were to win, Golovkin in his following fight?
Keith Idec is a senior writer/columnist for BoxingScene.com. He can be reached on Twitter @Idecboxing.
