If you’ve gotten to this point and aren’t happy, that’s too bad.
You should have seen it coming.
In keeping with tradition in this Tuesday morning space, we greet the New Year with a preview of stories other boxing scribes will be reacting to about 12 months from now.
Of course, if you recall last week’s piece, 2022 was a forecasting year to ignore… if not forget.
But hope springs eternal, so – in the recurring quest to match the glory of a spot-on pick of an unheralded Andre Ward as 2011’s fighter of the year – we’re giving it another go 12 years later.
Unlike football, baseball or their ilk, there are no master schedules from which to pluck events to predict. And even if I was prescient enough to know now which fights would be made between which guys, say, next October, there's always a chance that three people sitting on the ring's perimeter would pound my forecasting into dust with their definition of what constitutes a “boxing lesson.”
But those are excuses and gripes for another day.
Tuesday is a day of forward thinking, and with that, here’s an advance peek at what everyone else will be looking back on while taking down the tree after Christmas 2023.
And hey, if even some of this stuff really does happen… it’ll be a good year for all of us.
UPSET OF THE YEAR: Stephen Fulton SD 12 Naoya Inoue
Naoya Inoue is one of the world’s most elite fighters. He’s been a champion in multiple divisions, is an undisputed claimant at bantamweight these days, and is fully deserving of all the plaudits he gets.
But while he may be a monster, he’s not an unbeatable one.
He gets full credit for following up a 118-pound unification defeat of Paul Butler with the suggestion that for his next trick he’ll immediately go belt-hunting one rung up the ladder at 122.
That, though, is where his problems will start. Upon knocking on the door of the super bantamweight/junior featherweight penthouse he’ll encounter one Stephen Fulton, who’s been a champion of one strain or another since 2019. And though the 28-year-old is no giant at a shade past 5-foot-6, he’s sturdier and more talented at this stage than anyone Inoue’s met thus far.
It will neither be easy nor without fireworks, but if the two get together in 2023 it will be a fight that Fulton, who’s reached the fringes of some enlightened pound-for-pound lists, can win.
And it says here that he will… let’s say in 114-113 or 115-112 neighborhoods.
Remember where you heard it first.
KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR: Deontay Wilder KO 5 Joe Joyce
Say what you will about his fundamentals, his conspiracy theories, and the pre-Canastota historical significance of his run as WBC heavyweight champion, Deontay Wilder can punch.
He’s vaporized every foe not named Tyson Fury and announced his return with authority in 2022 with a first-round splatter of middling contender Robert Helenius in October.
But while the trilogy with Fury has been compelling, there’s little to be gained in a fourth match when the score is already 2-0-1 with two KOs and many consider the draw to be dubious at best.
So, in the absence of another title shot and the unlikelihood of a showdown with fellow ex-champ Anthony Joshua, no one remaining is more interesting than Joe Joyce.
For those unaware, Joyce is another tall, long, and powerful Englishman, though it’s suggested his chin is sturdier than Fury or Joshua’s and his own paralyzing power has yielded 14 KOs in 15 fights – with only ex-title challenger Bryant Jennings having gone the distance in Joyce’s 10th pro fight.
Fury himself has said it would “fantastic” to see the two sluggers battle it out and the thought from here is that it could be this generation’s version of Foreman-Lyle for as long as it lasts.
The original lasted five rounds so we’ll suggest the reboot does, too, before another right-hand laser beam finally ends things for good. And if you haven’t seen the original, do yourself a favor.
FIGHT OF THE YEAR: Gervonta Davis KO 8 Ryan Garcia
It’s a fight Ryan Garcia has angling toward for a while… with his mouth.
And now that he’s climbed to something at least resembling an elite level – thanks to 19 KOs in 23 victories and a significant hype machine in tow – it’s one that he’s finally earned with his fists.
In its aftermath, we’re guessing nearly everyone will hope it happens at least once or twice more.
The brash Californian has long claimed he’ll bully the Mayweather-groomed Baltimore product, and it’s within reason to envision him backing up the promises early on – perhaps even dropping a lunging Davis with a quick hook or combination in the early going.
Problem is, it’ll trigger a ferocity the multi-weight “Tank” is comfortable unleashing.
Don’t be surprised if Davis responds with a knockdown of his own in a subsequent round and begins taking over exchanges with sharper, thudding shots. Garcia will be bloodied and reeling by the end of the seventh, before finding himself rescued by his own corner team sometime in Round 8.
Sorry Oscar. I hope we can still be friends.
FIGHTER OF THE YEAR: Tyson Fury
It’s never an easy pick. Incumbent champions defend and unify titles. Hyped prospects fulfill championship-level promise. And legit superstars maintain their status atop the sport.
But when a guy begins a year in one place and finishes in another, particularly when it comes to all-time historical standing, he separates from the pack. Such will be the 2023 case for Fury.
The chatty Englishman is already among the most dominant big men in the sport’s history, and he’s been nearly unbeatable in his career’s second act, climbing off the deck to vanquish one trilogy rival in Wilder and beating a non-competitive drum on another in Derek Chisora.
A fight with Oleksandr Usyk provides an undisputed opportunity that Fury’s never before had and the expectation here is that it’ll be a far more one-sided affair than many suggest, with the “Gypsy King” forcing himself on his smaller foe for about 10 rounds until there’s simply no reason to continue.
That alone would be worth at least middling FOTY consideration, but we’ll roll the dice here and suggest Fury puts a cap on his year with a long-awaited summit with British rival Joshua.
Much like Fury-Usyk, it’s a fight many want to see but one that provides only a fleeting chance at an upset. Joshua is a strong puncher but he’s not as powerful as Wilder and won’t have nearly enough stuff to keep a motivated champion from beating him into a pulp before 90,000 fans.
Two mega-events. Two dominant KOs. And Fury rides off into the WWE/UFC crossover sunset.
* * * * * * * * * *
This week’s title-fight schedule:
IBF mini flyweight title – Osaka, Japan
Daniel Valladares (champion/unranked IWBR) vs. Ginjiro Shigeoka (No. 5 IBF/No. 14 IWBR)
Valladares (26-3-1, 15 KO): First title defense; First fight outside of Mexico
Shigeoka (8-0, 6 KO): First title fight; First fight scheduled beyond 10 rounds
Fitzbitz says: Valladares is older, taller, and longer, and has the advantage of championship experience. But Shigeoka already has noteworthy wins and seems special. We’ll see. Shigeoka by decision (75/25)
WBO mini-flyweight title – Osaka, Japan
Masataka Taniguchi (champion/No. 4 IWBR) vs. Melvin Jerusalem (No. 2 WBO/No. 9 IWBR)
Taniguchi (16-3, 11 KO): Second title defense; Four KOs in five wins since last loss in 2019
Jerusalem (19-2, 11 KO): Second title fight (0-1); Lost only fight outside the Philippines
Fitzbitz says: Jerusalem was a low-blow point deduction from a draw in his first title fight but that was six years ago. His opposition since hasn’t measured up to Tanigichi’s. Tanigichi by decision (80/20)
Last week's picks: None
2022 picks record: 41-16 (71.9 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,250-408 (75.4 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.














