by Cliff Rold
It’s the ongoing, dramatically changed landscape of boxing’s most notable nine man tournament for six and a crossroads clash between a rising star and a fighter already ensured a place in the International Boxing Hall of Fame one day.
On a night when HBO also has an interesting card on the air, this is the show of the week and no one will have to choose between them. Kicking off at 9 PM EST/PST, this is a show which while not quite “can’t” miss probably falls into the category of “be surprising if it” missed.
Let’s go the report cards, beginning with the Super Middleweights.
The Ledger
Glen Johnson
Age: 41
Titles: None
Previous Titles: Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight (2004-05); IBF Light Heavyweight (2004, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’11
Weight: 167 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 174.7 lbs.
Hails from: Miami, Florida (Born in Jamaica)
Record: 50-14-2, 34 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #3 at Light Heavyweight
Record in Championship Fights: 3-7-1, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 4 (Clinton Woods, Roy Jones, Antonio Tarver, Montell Griffin)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 8 (Bernard Hopkins, Sven Ottke, Silvio Branco, Julio Gonzalez, Antonio Tarver, Clinton Woods, Chad Dawson, Tavoris Cloud)
Vs.
Allan Green
Age: 31
Title/Previous Title: None
Height: 6’2
Weight: 168 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 168.6 lbs.
Hails from: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Record: 29-2, 20 KO
BoxingScene Rank: Unrated
Record in Championship Fights: 0-1
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Ola Afolabi, Carl Daniels)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Andre Ward)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Johnson B; Green B
Pre-Fight: Power – Johnson B+; Green B+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Johnson B+; Green C-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Johnson A; Green C-
Both Johnson and Green enter their fight having lost their last time in the ring. Those defeats are evidence that, off paper, all losses are not level. Johnson was nip and tuck with one of the best young Light Heavyweights in the world, Tavoris Cloud, in an exciting contest. Green was without fire in taking a lopsided whooping from Andre Ward.
It was a loss so bad, an effort so absent, as to leave Green struggling for relevance. His place in the Super Six is his lifeline and he’s got the sort of make or break moment any fighter can dread. Glen Johnson may not be the best Light Heavyweight of the last decade but he’s been in the mix for that long and a tough out for everyone. He’s a tank in the ring, and if he gets into rhythm has the output to be as dangerous offensively as anyone in the sport. Green remains a big punch threat but still has never beaten anything resembling a serious contender.
If he loses again in decisive fashion, he will likely see any chance of being a serious contender slip away. Green, against Ward, went to the ropes with little resistance and had little in the way of sound defense. He mitigated many shots, but was still constantly touched. Ward, for all his talent, is nowhere near as physical as Johnson.
The question mark here is whether the weight can be an issue. Johnson has not been at Super Middleweight in a decade. It’s Green’s best chance to win, the chance that Johnson’s legs will betray him or that he will be weakened.
Given that Johnson dropped the weight after his recent fight fairly easily, it’s not much of a chance.
That takes us to the evening’s main event.
Juan Manuel Lopez
Age: 27
Title:
WBO Featherweight (2010-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBO Jr. Featherweight (2008-Present, 5 Defenses)
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125.5 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 122.95 lbs.
Hails from: Caguas, Puerto Rico
Record: 29-0, 27 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #2 at Featherweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 8-0, 7 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Daniel Ponce de Leon, Gerry Penalosa, Steven Luevano)
Vs.
Rafael Marquez
Age: 35
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Bantamweight (2003-07, 7 Defenses); Lineal/Ring/WBC Jr. Featherweight (2007)
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125.5 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 121.6 lbs.
Hails from: Mexico City, Mexico
Record: 39-5, 35 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #5 at Featherweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 9-2, 7 KO, 1 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 4 (Mark Johnson, Tim Austin, Mauricio Pastrana, Israel Vazquez)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 2 (Victor Rabanales, Israel Vazquez)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Lopez B; Marquez B
Pre-Fight: Power – Lopez A; Marquez A
Pre-Fight: Defense – Lopez B; Marquez B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Lopez A; Marquez A
Mexico versus Puerto Rico. That’s a good thing in boxing, right?
Of course it is and this is also an old lion-young lion clash of the most classic variety. In their last outings, one would have had a hard time identifying which man would be more vulnerable to the ravages of time. Marquez was savage in tearing apart what was left of defining rival Israel Vazquez. Lopez was destructive against contender Bernabe Concepcion for all but the part where he was dropped and rocked badly.
Concepcion is no Marquez. Neither is Rogers Mtagwa, a journeyman who took Lopez to hell and back in 2009. If those fighters, honorable warriors both but a notch below the proven “Rafa,” can push Lopez to the wall, what does a right hand from Marquez do?
Of course, Marquez’s past forces the question of what Lopez’s left hook will do and offers an answer. Stopped four times in his career, Marquez can be put down and has slowed considerably from him peak. The win in the fourth Vazquez fight earlier this year could be misleading. Marquez has not shed the wear of those wars.
There are reasons to favor both men here. There are no good reasons to miss this fight. So what happens on Saturday?
The Picks
The tournament continues with two fighters who were not involved in the opening round. Look for the semi-finals to begin with the last man to enter the field. Johnson has every advantage but youth in the contest with Green. That youth will play out, in the ring, like man and child. There are fair questions about how Johnson will handle the drop to Super Middleweight but it’s not like he’d come down twenty or thirty pounds or like Green will put enough pressure to test his legs. Johnson might take a stiff hook or two early but by round four he’ll be beating Green down on the ropes and this is going to devolve into a mugging. Green will be stopped or need a corner rescue anytime from round eight onward.
As to the main event, youth will matter a lot. Lopez is entering his prime while Marquez is clearly past his. Marquez can hurt the younger man. He probably will. But as the fight wears on, this will come down to who gets to the mark first and most often. That will be Lopez and Marquez won’t have the legs to recover. Lopez, if stunned, will. Look for an early shoot-out that gets increasingly one-sided, Lopez the victor by stoppage inside six rounds to take another step towards the superstardom many see as his destiny.
Report Card Picks 2010: 24-12
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com