By Lee Groves
I’m not usually one to predict upsets but I see the potential for one Saturday night when Juan Urango and Devon Alexander seek to unify the IBF and WBC junior welterweight titles. I was surprised to learn that Alexander was a prohibitive –450 favorite over Urango, who was listed as a +300 proposition. To my mind’s eye this is no cakewalk for Alexander, who is unusual in that he affixes his nickname – "The Great" – to the end of his surname instead of sandwiching his sobriquet like everyone else.
I have been an avid observer of boxing for more than 35 years and I have seldom seen such a disparity in terms of odds in a unification contest. At best, I see Urango-Alexander as a toss-up affair that will have a definitive impact on each man’s career path. After rolling around the styles and circumstances in my mind, I saw Urango walking out of the ring with two belts strapped around his torso. How did I arrive at this radical outcome? Here are a few factors I considered:
Experience at the world-class level: For Urango, this will be his sixth fight with a major belt at stake while for Alexander this is just his second. While it is true that Alexander is unbeaten in 19 fights and Urango has suffered two losses and a draw in 25 matches, a championship contest is a completely different animal in terms of atmosphere, importance and pressure – especially the pressure generated from within.
On his way to the WBC title, Alexander posted excellent 12 round wins against faded former champ DeMarcus Corley and perennial contender Miguel Callist and, to his credit, Alexander scored a dominating eighth round corner retirement against tricky defending titlist Junior Witter. An even bigger surprise than the result was that Alexander looked good in taking out the veteran spoiler. As impressive as Alexander was, however, can one reasonably make him such a heavy favorite based on that one performance against someone who has a 59-8 edge in championship rounds? Apparently so, say the odds-makers.
Urango has been on the world scene August 2004 when he scored a majority draw against fellow prospect Mike Arnaoutis. Since then he has encountered a variety of styles ranging from Naoufel Ben Rabah’s frustration festival to Ricky Hatton’s ox-like strength to Andre Berto’s quick-twitch hit-and-grab spurts to Randall Bailey’s ominous orthodoxy. Yes, he lost to Hatton and Berto but the experience he acquired, even in defeat, will serve him well against someone who will be feeling his way as the fight goes along. Experience provides a valuable frame of reference in tough situations and Urango has it for this fight. Alexander may well have the talent to overcome this hurdle, but I think it’s better to go with the known than the unknown.
Recent form at 140 pounds: Since his lone loss at 140 to Hatton in January 2007, Urango has gone 5-0 with four knockouts in junior welterweight contests. The last two were a decisive decision victory over Herman Ngoudjo – in Ngoudjo’s adopted hometown of Montreal – and a bulldozing 11th round stoppage of former titlist Bailey (who came into the bout off an electrifying one-punch knockout of Francisco Figueroa). At age 29, Urango is fighting as well as he ever has and he will need to maintain that level of performance to beat Alexander.
The 23-year-old Alexander boasts excellent maneuverability, terrific hand speed and combination punching as well as unquestioned stamina. When he chooses to use his tools he can dominate but there have been times when he has been content to merely control his man instead of imposing his superior talent and will. Against Jesus "Chuy" Rodriguez, who substituted for Zab Judah on 12 days’ notice, Alexander’s jab constantly fell short of the mark and Rodriguez, a squat and short-armed fighter like Urango, got in more shots than a late-sub should have. He managed to out-land Alexander in rounds one and six before Alexander revved up the engine and scored knockdowns in rounds eight and nine. ShoBox’s Nick Charles put it best when he said Alexander was dominating but hardly overwhelming, at least not the way a top contender should be against a last-minute replacement.
Alexander demonstrated admirable poise against Witter, whose style could rattle anyone. He also showed two-fisted power as a late left cross-right hook combo stunned the Briton in round two while in the fifth a monstrous left almost floored Witter. Again, however, Alexander’s gifts come in flashes and to defeat someone of Urango’s experience he must keep the hammer down once he hurts him with it. Alexander has yet to show a consistent finishing touch while Urango has. We also don’t know about the quality of Alexander’s chin and Urango has the power to provide us with some answers.
A Matter of Style: Perhaps the biggest reason why Alexander is favored is that fleet-footed stylists have troubled Urango in the past. Berto’s dash and flash netted a lopsided decision win for the Haitian-American while Ben Rabah’s awkwardness kept Urango at bay for extended periods. Urango’s history – combined with Alexander’s youth – equals trouble for the transplanted Colombian.
That reasoning is perfectly logical, but my radar is picking up different signals. First, the Urango-Ben Rabah fight was regarded by some as one of the worst decisions of 2006, but upon video review I saw a close fight rather than a Ben Rabah runaway. The fight itself was nondescript and had virtually no sustained action. While Ben Rabah showed good ring craft, he spent nearly the entire contest on his bicycle and didn’t have the look of a man who wanted to seize a vacant title. Moreover, the CompuBox numbers showed Urango threw more (589-488), landed more (104-99) and connected on more power shots (85-52). While Urango was aggressive and ineffective, Ben Rabah was timid and ineffective and in those situations the man moving forward usually wins over the judges. As for the Berto fight, a more gifted welterweight usually beats a good junior welterweight.
Second, Urango has long been labeled "one-dimensional" but when that one dimension works it can be devastating. Urango rates as one of boxing’s most prodigious body punchers and the Bailey fight offers graphic evidence of how effective he can be when he whips both hands to his opponent’s flanks. Bailey more than held his own for the first six rounds, scoring a picturesque right-hand knockdown in the process, but in the seventh the sapping effects of Urango’s body work began to take hold. Bailey’s output, which was consistently in the 50s and 60s in the early rounds, dipped into the 40s, then the 20s and 30s while his connects plummeted into the single digits. Meanwhile, Urango’s work rate remained in the 60s and he landed 20 or more blows with regularity. With Bailey’s energy eroding, Urango scored two knockdowns in the ninth, a third one in the 10th and by the 11th Bailey barely had the strength to hold his hands up. Seeing their man’s helpless state, Bailey’s corner wisely and compassionately climbed onto the ring apron and halted matters.
Finally, Alexander may have the tall-man’s skill set to frustrate Urango but lacks the height and reach to maximize it. Both men sport identical frames as they stand 5-7 and have 71-inch reaches. That means Alexander will have a tougher time keeping Urango at the end of his punches without being in striking range himself. If Alexander had two extra inches in height and reach, it could have been an easy night against Urango. But because he doesn’t a tougher fight awaits him.
In boxer-puncher matches such as these, the boxer usually enjoys a fast start while the puncher’s virtues surface in the middle and late rounds. I believe Urango-Alexander will follow the same pattern, with Urango’s consistent body attack slowly wearing down the inexperienced Alexander in the later rounds en route to a competitive, but unanimous, decision.
Sure, I could be wrong – who says boxing writers are infallible – but what if I’m right? The bottom line is that this fight is not the uneven match some portray it to be and I’m looking forward to seeing how the fight plays out.
E-mail Lee Groves at lgroves@hughes.net
