Two weeks after the retirement of no-doubt-about-it future International Boxing Hall of Famer Vasiliy Lomachenko, 11 days after Manny Pacquiao and the rest of the class of 2025 were welcomed into boxing’s most prestigious club, and two days after the 25th anniversary of a classic confrontation between eventual HOF-ers Shane Mosley and Oscar De La Hoya, you’ll have to forgive me for having the town of Canastota, New York, on my brain.

There’s never a bad time, really, to wonder which active fighters will eventually become hall of famers. But this feels like an especially appropriate time.

Sure shots: This one should be self-explanatory. These are fighters who could retire tomorrow and be assured of induction, or who could lose their next 10 fights in a row and then retire and still be assured of induction, such is the shine of their current credentials.

Probables: Boxers who are firmly in the mix but figure to be the subject of contentious debate the first time their names appear on the ballot. The induction standards now being what they are, they’ll likely get in eventually. But it’s far from certain, and unlikely to happen on their first try.

Long shots: These guys can’t be entirely ruled out — the likes of Vinny Paz and Michael Moorer were surely viewed as long shots at one time — but in all likelihood, they’ll spend their post-pugilism years on the outside looking in.

Too soon to tell: There are all different degrees of “too soon to tell”, but this category isn’t for the likes of Abdullah Mason, Keyshawn Davis, Moses Itauma or anyone else who has talent but hasn’t yet had anything close to a defining fight. If you’re to any degree still a prospect — and yes, sadly, one can be both a prospect and a beltholder at the same time nowadays — it’s too soon to even put you on this “too soon” list. Rather, this category is for boxers who’ve proven a thing or two at the elite level, but need to do more before we can properly debate their IBHOF worthiness.

A couple of key clarifications: First, we’re strictly looking at the modern men’s category here. So, yes, Claressa Shields, Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor are all 100-percent guaranteed hall of famers, but that’s subject matter for a different article.

And second, we’re focusing on active fighters. If you haven’t fought in more than three years and could potentially have your name on the next ballot, like Gary Russell Jnr and Leo Santa Cruz (both “long shots” anyway), even if you’ve never officially announced your retirement, I’m skipping over you.

And if you have announced your retirement, like Lomachenko (sure shot), Sergey Kovalev (straddling the fence between probable and long shot) or Daniel Jacobs (extreme long shot), you’re not a part of this.

The one exception to that rule: Tyson Fury, because very few observers are taking his latest retirement announcement seriously.

All right, we don’t need this article running as long as the late, great Steve Smoger’s 2015 induction speech. So, enough preamble, let’s get to it.

Sure shots

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez: You spend about a decade as the most bankable star in the sport, you reach the top of pound-for-pound lists, and you win titles in four divisions — two of them lineal — and there’s nothing to debate, even if you had a dalliance with “tainted meat” and did some cherry-picking in your later years.

Oleksandr Usyk: Olympic gold medalist, lineal cruiserweight champ, lineal heavyweight champ, pound-for-pound king, lovable goofy-grinning weirdo — try poking a hole in his hall-of-fame case, I dare ya.

Terence Crawford: If “Bud” beats Canelo in September, he enters that stratosphere where anyone who doesn’t vote for him on the first ballot should have their right to vote taken away. Actually, Crawford can get KO’d in one round by Alvarez and that punishment would still be appropriate.

Naoya Inoue: Just another two-weight undisputed champ like Usyk and Crawford, but with a knockout rate to make their eyes water. The designation of best fighter ever from Asia is potentially on the table over the remainder of his career. And, no, I haven’t already forgotten about Manny Pacquiao.

Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez: His 52-4 record ain’t bad, but in a just world it could be 55-1. Gonzalez ruled each of boxing’s four smallest weight classes — and if not for that damned Ricardo Lopez he’d be the greatest strawweight ever.

Nonito Donaire: Whether you’re looking for explosiveness, longevity, moving up in weight, moving down in weight, year-end awards, or staging comebacks after being written off, “The Filipino Flash’s” career had a little bit of everything.

Tyson Fury: I just covered this case a couple of weeks ago. Love him or hate him, heavyweights with resumes half as good as Fury’s — the second-longest reigning lineal champ in the division’s history — have gained entry into The Hall. He’s a first-ballot lock, even if the vote figures not to be unanimous.

Dmitry Bivol: The Russian’s resume lacks the depth of these other sure shots, perhaps. But there’s no scenario in which a lineal champ who defeated both Canelo Alvarez and Artur Beterbiev controversy-free isn’t a hall of famer.

Juan Francisco Estrada: If Chocolatito was the Muhammad Ali of tiny fighters of the 2000s, then Estrada was his Joe Frazier. There are worlds in which “El Gallo” doesn’t get there on his first ballot. But there are no worlds in which he doesn’t ultimately get there.

Probables

Anthony Joshua: A couple of the losses are ugly, and he ultimately fell short of most people’s expectations, but if you want to make the case that “AJ” is a sure shot because of his star power and because he’s a heavyweight, I’ll listen.

Errol Spence: It remains to be seen how (or if at all) Spence will respond to his first defeat, but wins over Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia, Mikey Garcia, Yordenis Ugas and Kell Brook prior to that likely get him over the hall-of-fame hump even if he never fights again.

Artur Beterbiev: He seemed on the path to sure-shot status until he fell short in the rematch with Bivol, and there’s a chance he won’t accomplish anything else now that he’s in his 40s. Beterbiev’s wasn’t a lengthy or particularly active pro career, so some voters may pause, even though he was an absolute beast throughout his five-year lineal light-heavyweight title reign.

Kenshiro Teraji: “The Amazing Boy’s” resume should land him narrowly on the plus side of the IBHOF line, but you never know if a mostly North American voter base will come through for a pint-sized foreign fighter with limited international exposure. But given that he’s 33 years old, still going strong, and did some of his most memorable work in his past few fights, the odds are in his favor.

Deontay Wilder: The resume says “long shot”, and so does the technique that seems to answer the question, “What if you tried to teach an inflatable tube man outside a car dealership to box?”. But borderline heavyweights — especially those who rank among the most destructive punchers ever — are never as borderline as they would be if they were lighter.

Long shots

Danny Garcia: One suspects his career is over, but he hasn’t announced that yet. The 140lbs resume is exceptional. Still, he probably needed one big win at welter, and instead fell just short against Spence, Porter and Keith Thurman.

Keith Thurman: “One Time” got a couple of those meaningful, close wins at 147 — over Garcia and Porter — but he was never quite the same after elbow and hand injuries in 2017 and 2018, and losing to a 40-year-old Pacquiao killed his momentum.

The Charlo twins: Jermall and Jermell have had distinct careers, and neither is necessarily finished, but they both cooled off in their 30s and aren’t even guaranteed to get on to the IBHOF ballot.

Erislandy Lara: Often underappreciated, never defeated decisively and still a championship-level fighter at age 42, Lara deserves consideration, but as long as fellow Cuban defector Joel Casamayor continues to languish on the ballot, it’s hard to feel optimistic about Lara.

Emanuel Navarette: The fan-friendly Mexican seemed on the right trajectory through the first Oscar Valdez fight two years ago, but questionable training habits appear to have caught up with him and he’s perhaps lucky to have gone 1-1-1 with one no-contest since.

Carlos Cuadras: A damned good fighter who couldn’t win the big one, Cuadras went 1-4 against Chocolatito, Estrada, Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, and 43-1-1 against everyone else. He’s not just a longshot; he’s an extreme longshot. But with the way HOF standards keep slowly slipping…

Adrien Broner: I know he’s nowhere close to being a hall of famer. You know he’s nowhere close to being a hall of famer. It would be nice to trust voters not to be fooled by the words “four-division champion”. But my days of trusting voters not to be fooled are long behind me.

Ryan Garcia: You’d think a 26 year old like Garcia would land in the “Too soon to tell” section, but we have a pretty clear idea already of what “KingRy” is. And what he is leans heavily into what the “F” in “IBHOF” stands for — and history says not to be 100 per cent sure that fame alone won’t get a boxer the votes he needs.

Too soon to tell

Teofimo Lopez: Some may say a two-division lineal champ who holds a legit win — perhaps the only legit win — over Lomachenko is already a lock for the hall of fame. But there’s too much inconsistency and unpredictability to Lopez’s performances and his behavior. He needs to stave off implosion a little while longer before he’s a cinch for Canastota.

Gervonta “Tank” Davis: Tank’s outlook is similar to Teo’s. He’s a bigger star than Lopez but a bit less accomplished in the ring, and has also drifted in and out of the lower rungs of pound-for-pound lists – and he’s on a hall-of-fame path if he doesn’t fall apart. His upcoming rematch with Lamont Roach could push him in one direction or the other.

David Benavidez: It’s not his fault Canelo wants nothing to do with him and won’t give him the opportunity to cement his HOF case. Wins over David Morrell, Caleb Plant and Demetrius Andrade are all significant, but it feels like “The Mexican Monster” is still one major victory away.

Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez: The phrase “hall-of-fame trajectory” was created for fighters like Bam. He’s just 25, he’s already beaten Estrada, Cuadras and Srisaket, and he keeps getting better. It’s just a little early to fully anoint him.

Junto Nakatani: All the above text about Rodriguez fairly directly applies to the 27-year-old Nakatani (who knows, the two of them may even have a future-hall-of-famers showdown someday, as they’re currently just three pounds apart?). One or two more good years, or one win over an A-list opponent like Rodriguez — or, if he could pull it off, Inoue — and “Big Bang” can book his ticket to Canastota.

Shakur Stevenson: Just like Nakatani, Stevenson is an undefeated 27-year-old southpaw on most pound-for-pound lists. The styles are quite different,

though. It can be a little tougher to get the HOF votes if you’re perceived as a stinker, but Stevenson will nevertheless be impossible to deny if he remains at this level for a couple more years.

Devin Haney: This is where we shift from the “in the hall as long as he doesn’t go wildly astray” crowd to someone whose continued success is less assured. Haney is only 26 and the resume includes the lineal lightweight title and a win (however disputed) over Lomachenko, but it remains unknown how much his punishing fight with an over-the-weight, artificially enhanced Ryan Garcia took out of him.

Vergil Ortiz: His health problems appear to be behind him and tough wins over Serhii Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov proved plenty, but there’s a long way to still go before his accomplishments place him in the hall-of-fame mix.

Jaron “Boots” Ennis: Much like his theoretical rival Ortiz, the talent is obvious but the quality of opposition has been spotty. Dominating and stopping Eimantis Stanionis was a huge statement. Several bigger statements are required before he gets to think about joining the immortals.

Jai Opetaia: It’s unheard of to get into the hall-of-fame on the basis of a cruiserweight title reign alone. The undefeated Aussie has ruled the division for nearly three years, but chances are his Canastota candidacy will come down to whether he can eventually make some noise at heavyweight (Then again, staying put and breaking all the records for length of cruiserweight reign and number of defenses could do the trick).

Daniel Dubois: If he wins his rematch with Usyk next month to become the one, true heavyweight champion of the world, he’s in. If he loses, well, Dubois is only 27, so there’s time to rebuild. And, as stated several times already in this article, if you’re going to be a borderline hall-of-fame candidate, you’re going to want to be a heavyweight.

Eric Raskin is a veteran boxing journalist with nearly 30 years of experience covering the sport for such outlets as BoxingScene, ESPN, Grantland, Playboy, and The Ring (where he served as managing editor for seven years). He also co-hosted The HBO Boxing Podcast, Showtime Boxing with Raskin & Mulvaney, The Interim Champion Boxing Podcast with Raskin & Mulvaney, and Ring Theory. He has won three first-place writing awards from the BWAA, for his work with The Ring, Grantland, and HBO. Outside boxing, he is the senior editor of CasinoReports and the author of 2014’s The Moneymaker Effect. He can be reached on X, BlueSky, or LinkedIn, or via email at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com.