By Rick Reeno
Later tonight, IBF/WBA/WBC super flyweight champion Vic Darchinyan (31-1-1, 25 KOs) will defend his undisputed crown against former champion Jorge Arce (51-4-1, 39 KOs) at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
Darchinyan has made quite a statement since being knocked out in five by Nonito Donaire in 2007. He moved up by three-pounds to super flyweight and unified his weight class with dominating knockouts of Dimitri Kirillov and Cristian Mijares.
“I expect this is going to be a good fight. I’m not looking to knock him out in the first round. He is a tough fighter and I know he is here to give me a tough fight. So this might go a couple rounds. But once I hit him – and before he realizes what hit him – the fight will be over,” Darchinyan said.
Arce has never fully recovered, career-wise, from the beating he took from Mijares in 2007. Since the loss, he managed to patch together a five-win run over second-tier opponents, and struggled along the way. If he beats Darchinyan, all will be forgiven.
The staff of BoxingScene.com comes together to voice their opinions, strategies and predictions for the big fight.
Robert Morales - I'm going with Darchinyan by late-round stoppage. I don't remember anyone at this weight hitting as hard as he does. And he's vicious. Of course, I'm the bozo that picked Pavlik, De La Hoya and Margarito. So what do I know?
Bob Cannobio/CompuBox - Darchinyan by KO in eighter. Mijares, who was destroyed by Darchinyan, landed 50% of his power shots vs. Arce. Darchinyan should match that number.
Jake Donovan - Darchinyan by Mid-Rounds TKO - Not a knee-jerk prediction, or a slight to Arce. More so an acknowledgment of the great strides Vic has made since suffering the lone loss of his career in mid-2007. Coming off of a Fighter of the Year-worthy campaign, surely there exists the possibility of a huge letdown (see Antonio Margarito's meltdown versus Shane Mosley, for starters). But Arce's defense is
far too non-existent, and quite frankly his overall skillset no longer - and perhaps never - on par with the brash Armenian.
A hell of a fight for as long as it lasts, but Arce eventually bleeding from every pore and unable to block any of the incoming as the fight is stopped.
Patrick Kehoe - Vic Darchinyan by knockout in eight over Arce, if Arce lasts that long.
Cliff Rold - Darchinyan by KO in three. Arce has been stunned in multiple fights in recent years and has a lot of wear on his tires. Darchinyan is faster and awkward enough to catch him coming in. When he does, that should be all she wrote but every second should be thrilling while it lasts.
Lyle Fitzsimmons (Darchinyan): Two great characters. Two big punchers. But the problem for Arce is that Darchinyan does everything he does, only better. And unless Jorge morphs into Nonito Donaire overnight, he's likely to meet the same fate as the rest of Vic's opponents. That said, it ought to be fun while it lasts. Darchinyan by KO 7.
Dave Sholler - Darchinyan by TKO. He's cocky, he's arrogant, and he gets it done. He may not be a guy you'd invite over for dinner, but Darchinyan is the type of fighter you'll talk about around the water cooler. This one should be a solid win for "The Raging Bull."
T.K. Stewart - Both guys have flaws and both guys are aggressive. Historically, that type of combination usually makes for very entertaining fights. In my opinion, Vic has the heavier hands and he throws those unorthodox, southpaw shots which makes him difficult to time and defend against. If Arce were to fight the perfect fight he could use his underrated technical skills to outbox Darchinyan and wear him out with an overwhelming amount of punches.
However, my feeling is that Arce has slipped a bit from his best days and that he doesn't have the firepower to keep Vic honest. Arce has struggled in spots in his recent fights and he does have a tendency to get hit flush. I notice that he tends to be a bit more flat-footed these days and he will back to the ropes and linger there a bit too long. I think we'll see a close fight early on, but as the fight progresses I think Vic will begin to impose his will. I like Vic by stoppage around the 10th.
Michael Swann - This one would have been a better fight competitively when first discussed about three years ago when both men were dominant flyweights. On the other hand, it's more marketable now, three months since Darchinyan stopped Cristian Mijares, the man who outclassed Arce almost two years ago.
The thinking here is that the 29 year old Arce shows more wear and tear from his many ring wars and his skills have faded more than the 33 year old Darchinyan, making him an easy target for the heavy handed Armenian. Give me Darchinyan, KO in 9.
Mitch Abramson - Vic Darchinyan by fifth round knockout.
Brent Matteo Alderson - I'm going with Arce in the upset. I think his chin will carry him through the fight. I'm a betting man, but I'm not betting on this one.
Ryan Songalia - As we saw in the Margarito/Cotto/Mosley fights, just because Fighter A beat Fighter B and Fighter B beat Fighter C, that doesn't necessarily mean that Fighter A will beat Fighter C.
While Cristian Mijares did outclass Jorge Arce and Darchinyan destroyed Mijares, Arce was facing a stylistic disadvantage with Mijares' slick boxing ability. There isn't much slick about Darchinyan and I think that works to Arce's advantage.
Both Arce and Darchinyan are big punchers but my concern is that maybe Arce has been in one too many wars. Though Arce is four years younger, in ring age he's probably more advanced due to the longevity of his career.
I'm going with Darchinyan here because he's on the hot streak but Arce is very much a live dog. While Arce won't be hard to find for Darchinyan, Darchinyan himself will hardly be invisible. This fight can't possibly be boring. Can it?
Paul Gallegos - This should be a very bloody night. I predict a very dirty fight from both fighters. There will be elbows, low blows, and the occasional clash of heads. After the ruckus stops, then Darchinyan should prevail via a TKO stoppage in the 11th round. Arce will have some exceptionally strong moments and even rock Darchinyan, but Vic will wear him down the more experienced Arce. Body shots will be the key to either man's attack.
Ernest Gabion - Vic Darchinyan by knockout in four rounds.
Luis Sandoval - After seeing Vic dominate Mijares, I said I would never again doubt him BUT I think Arce has something Mijares didn't have and Nonito did: a punch. I'm going against the grain and picking Arce by late TKO in an upset special.
Mark Vester - The stronger Darchinyan blasts Arce away in eight rounds.
Ronnie Nathanielsz - You don’t have to like Vic Darchinyan but let’s face it, his annihilation of Cristian Mijares proved he had a right to be cocky. For a super flyweight he has tremendous power and in the end this will be the key to overcoming Jorge Arce who is himself a warrior.
Arce had a tough time against Rafael Concepcion before he wore him down but in two fights some years ago against Filipino southpaw Juanito Rubillar, when Arce was in his prime, he had a tough time. He may have the same problems with southpaw Darchinyan.
I sense that Arce is slipping while Darchinyan is still improving. I have to go with Darchinyan in what may well be a brutal fight. Possibly a stoppage in the middle rounds. Besides, as a Filipino I have a selfish motive. I want to see a rematch with Nonito “The Filipino Flash” Donaire
Jose Aguirre - Darchinyan by TKO over Arce. I believe Jorge Arce plays right into the hands of Vic Darchinyan's arkward style & power punches.
Carlos Irusta - Vic Darchinyan, because Jorge Arce will try to put a lot of pressure on him and will likely make a mistake. The Armenian fighter is a lot stronger than Arce.
Larry Tornambe - I see Vic Darchinyan at, or near, his peak and will win by late round TKO over Arce.
JC Casarez - Darchinyan by TKO. This is a fight between two of the best little men in the sport. Unfortunately, at this time in both of their careers, one is going up and one is coming to an end. Arce's style will cause for some moments early but I believe size and punching power will be a factor as the fight on. Not to mention the unorthodox style Darchinyan brings that makes him so difficult to prepare for. If a master counter puncher like Christian Mijares had trouble finding him I doubt Arce will have anymore success. Look for Vic to stop his man mid fight.
John Hively - This might be a tough call to make, but I'll go with Vic Darchinyan by close decision.
James Blears - This is going to be mini war to rival the legendary clash of Rocky Graziano vs Tony Zale, and Marvin Hagler vs Tommy Hearns. Vic and Jorge both have real power and genuine needle motivation to go to war from the first bell. If Jorge can avoid that lethal left hook, and I think he can, he'll stop Vic within five rounds. But it'll take an intelligent and more restrained performance from Jorge than ever before, avoiding the temptation to go in head down and flailing. Jorge must slip punches and take others on the arms like he did in his Temoya preparation. He must also use speed to outwork Vic.
Like many heavy hitters, Vic can leave himself vulnerable. With his style, he could get caught with some wicked body shots from "Travieso." The Scamp will emerge bloody but victorious after a right royal tear up. Don't blink!
Rick Reeno - I don’t think Arce is strong enough, big enough, or possesses the stylistic superiority to beat Darchinyan. Arce looked very much on the slide in his last few fights. I would be very surprised if the fight went longer than six rounds. I see Darchinyan making another statement with aanother impressive knockout by round six.