This all would have been so simple if Daniel Dubois hadn’t gotten sick. If he’d fought Joseph Parker as scheduled in the co-main on the loaded February 22 card in Saudi Arabia, then we’d now know, with no room for debate – assuming the fight had ended without major controversy – who the most worthy challenger is to Oleksandr Usyk’s heavyweight championship.

But this is boxing. And boxing doesn’t do “simple.” It doesn’t do “no room for debate.” There’s no such thing as clean, or easy, or clear-cut with this sport of ours.

Boxing is the dog that rolls in another dog’s mess the instant you’re finished giving it a bath. To be a boxing fan is to mutter on the daily, “This is why we can’t have nice things.”

Dubois-Parker would have been one of those nice things. But fate intervened, we couldn’t have it, and now here we are with two red-hot heavyweight contenders, each with a compelling case that he deserves the next crack at Usyk.

The champ recently told Sky Sports he believes he has two fights left, and if true, that could mean Dubois and Parker each get their shot and it’s merely a matter of the order. Or it could mean one of them is left out in the cold.

Either way, only one of them can be next. Triple-threat matches, after all, are the domain of scripted combat, not the real stuff. There will be no Riyadh-a-mania main event of Usyk vs. Dubois vs. Parker. It’s one or the other.

Usyk has a difficult choice to make – and BoxingScene is here to provide some guidance. Let’s break it down into a half-dozen categories and see if that gets us anywhere:

Recent resume

These align perfectly, as Dubois is on a three-fight winning streak, and Parker is on a six-fight winning streak that may as well be a three-fight winning streak because wins over Jack Massey, Faiga Opelu and Simon Kean don’t do a damned thing for his title-shot worthiness.

Both men began their ascents on the same card. On December 23, 2023, Parker scored a near-shutout decision over Deontay Wilder and Dubois stopped Jarrell Miller with eight seconds left on the clock in the 10th and final round.

Parker followed the Wilder win by eking out a majority decision over Zhilei Zhang. Dubois kept his roll going by pounding out an eighth-round TKO over Filip Hrgovic.

Then Dubois shook up the heavyweight division by scoring four knockdowns and a fifth-round knockout over Anthony Joshua. Parker answered with his own devastating KO of a behemoth, disposing of Martin Bakole – the last-minute sub when Dubois fell ill in February – in just over five minutes of action.

The tricky thing about comparing Parker’s trio of wins with Dubois’ trio of wins is that, in boxing, we tend to attach an asterisk to everything. Any fighter who has just lost is by definition beatable, and it can be hard to give the victor full credit.

You dominated Wilder as a +450 underdog? Whoop-dee-doo, Wilder was washed. You starched AJ as a +350 ’dog? Whatevs, Joshua is obviously fragile and fraudulent.

Still, doing our best to regard the opponents as they were regarded coming in, Wilder and Zhang are clearly a couple of notches above Miller and Hrgovic. Of course, Dubois scored stoppages, and Parker went the distance, just squeaking past Zhang. And Dubois’ win over Joshua is undoubtedly worth more than Parker’s win over an underprepared Bakole – although in both cases, the winners took care of business as spectacularly and completely as they possibly could have.

This is the closest of close calls, but Parker defeated three opponents who were each in any reasonable person’s top 10 at the time of the fights; “Big Baby” Miller is a relatively weak link on Dubois’ resume. Toss in those wins over Massey, Opelu and Kean as a tiebreaker if you have to, but even without them, I’ll lean Parker in this category.

Best win

This explanation will be a whole lot quicker. Whatever one may think of Joshua now, he was riding high heading into his fight with Dubois, having won four in a row, including blowouts of Otto Wallin (decently regarded at the time) and Francis Ngannou (fresh off nearly beating Tyson Fury). And Dubois demolished AJ.

Parker’s best win is either Wilder, Bakole or a majority decision over Andy Ruiz way back in 2016. None of those compare to eviscerating Joshua at Wembley Stadium.

This category goes to Dubois in a walk.

History with Usyk

The fact that Dubois already fought Usyk, in August 2023, cuts both ways.

On the one hand, he’s had his chance – and it’s not an “ancient history” situation, since it was less than two years ago. Dubois got his opportunity against Usyk and he failed. He was stopped in the ninth round, and… I know people are sensitive about use of the “Q” word, so I’ll use a bigger word that starts with a different letter and say he capitulated.

On the other hand, there was a moment in the fight when Dubois sent Usyk to the canvas with a punch that some insist was a legal body shot. Referee Luis Pabon ruled it a low blow, and nobody will ever know if Usyk would have beaten the count had Pabon decreed the punch clean, but there was certainly a contingent in the moment that felt Dubois had been robbed of a knockout win.

And as we all know, controversy sells. Repeated airings of a clip of Usyk on the canvas against Dubois the first time goes a long way in building up the rematch.

So it’s an edge to Parker in terms of not having had a chance yet to face Usyk, but it’s an edge to Dubois in terms of the lingering sense among some that there remains a controversy to clean up. So call this category a draw.

Action potential

There’s probably a dull fight somewhere in Dubois’ past, but if that’s the case, I either haven’t seen it or don’t remember it. He’s a heavy puncher with defensive deficiencies and vulnerabilities, and the result is a BoxRec page featuring a mix of fun scraps and quick blast-outs. Whether he’s losing to Usyk or Joe Joyce, almost losing to unheralded Kevin Lerena, or stopping the likes of Miller, Hrgovic and Joshua, Dubois always makes it entertaining.

Parker, on the other hand, sometimes makes it entertaining. Against the wrong opponent – someone lumbering as Zhang can be, someone Parker is wary of like the 2018 version of Joshua he lost to – there can be some monotony to a Parker fight.

Usyk is unlikely to fit that “wrong opponent” description. Chances are we’d get our money’s worth in Usyk-Parker.

But if it’s guaranteed action you’re looking for, Dubois is your man – maybe above all other heavyweights in the world right now.

Personality

Only one of these two heavyweight contenders is out here lip-synching to Usyk that he’s “the only one I dream of.” It’s the same boxer who unofficially won the COVID lockdowns with his video creations. Sure, much of the credit for his “personality” goes to his filmmaker friend, Kerry Russell, but the fact is Parker is an engaging fellow who can be charming on the mic.

Dubois, to the contrary, never seems relaxed speaking. And anytime he talks trash, it feels deeply unnatural.

Until Dubois can top writing the words “I’M VERY FEEL” in the sand, this category belongs to Parker.

Overall fight marketability

Anywhere but New Zealand, Dubois is going to sell more tickets.

He’s younger – 27, compared to 33 for Parker – and thus has possible-future-of-the-heavyweight-division upside. He’s a more destructive puncher. He’s maybe a slightly bigger name globally because of the knockout of AJ.

All the clever call-out videos in the world won’t alter the reality that Usyk-Dubois II is a bigger event than Usyk-Parker I.

Then there’s the “unification” factor. I put that word in quotes because, come on, people, Usyk unified all the belts and never lost any of them in the ring. He is the one and only heavyweight champion. Dubois is a contender who happens to be in possession of a belt. Still, for marketing purposes, there are people out there who don’t know any better to whom the idea of “reunification” will sound appealing.

Complicating that, of course, is the fact that one alphabet group is mandating that Usyk face Parker and threatening to strip him if he doesn’t, so it’s possible that Usyk could face Dubois next and some pencil-pusher will have determined that it’s not for the fully unified championship after all.

In the end, we’d all be well-served ignoring the alphabet-related details and just remembering that Usyk is the champ, trying to decide which of his top two contenders to defend against.

From a marketability perspective, a clear edge to Dubois.

Final verdict

Add it up and the categories fall 3-2 Dubois, with one even. And the “recent resume” category in which I picked Parker was nearly a coin flip, meaning the only category the Kiwi won clearly was “personality.”

In other words, Dubois feels like the right pick qualitatively and quantitatively.

Parker made up some ground, no doubt, when Dubois caught a bug and then Bakole caught a right hand to the top of the dome. But he didn’t make up all the ground.

To Usyk, I say give Dubois the next shot at the title. He deserves it.

And if you beat Dubois, give Parker the next shot. He deserves it, too.

Eric Raskin is a veteran boxing journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering the sport for such outlets as BoxingScene, ESPN, Grantland, Playboy, and The Ring (where he served as managing editor for seven years). He also co-hosted The HBO Boxing Podcast, Showtime Boxing with Raskin & Mulvaney, The Interim Champion Boxing Podcast with Raskin & Mulvaney, and Ring Theory. He has won three first-place writing awards from the BWAA, for his work with The Ring, Grantland, and HBO. Outside boxing, he is the senior editor of CasinoReports and the author of 2014’s The Moneymaker Effect. He can be reached on X, BlueSky, or LinkedIn, or via email at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com.