There are no balls in boxing (other than those covered by protective cups), but there are bells. Therefore, when seeking to peer with clarity into the future in this sport, we go with the crystal bell instead of the crystal ball.

And if that strikes you as a bit hacky, just understand that the other option I was considering for the headline was “the crystal Nick Ball.”

So you got off easy.

Anyway, it is January 1, 2026 as you’re reading this, the perfect day on the calendar for that tried-and-true “predictions for the new year” column device. Here are 10 of mine — some bold, some obvious, all 100 per cent guaranteed to come true because the crystal bell is never wrong:

The Fighter of the Year will be … Shakur Stevenson

I could have played it safe and predicted simply that Stevenson will be the early frontrunner for FOY, since I favor him to win the first major fight of 2026. But I’m taking it a step further.

The New Jersey southpaw faces Teofimo Lopez for the latter’s lineal 140-lbs championship on January 31, and even though Lopez has a history of shining when he faces truly elite opposition, I expect that Stevenson has the defense, footwork and focus to tame him. I’m thinking 117-111 or so in Stevenson’s favor, the signature victory thus far of his career.

And the beauty of fighting in January is it’s easy to get two more fights in — maybe even three if he wants to. Start the year with a massive victory to claim the legit title in a new weight class, follow that up with a couple of additional wins over competent opposition and it’s unlikely that anyone will catch you in the Fighter of the Year race.

Either Naoya Inoue or Oleksandr Usyk will take an L

If this comes true, the pound-for-pound debate comes to a temporary end. (Unless they both take Ls, of course.)

Usyk will turn 39 this month, and he’s expected to meet Deontay Wilder in the spring. I doubt the Ukrainian champ will lose that one, but you have to acknowledge, if anyone in the division has the potential to erase Usyk if he can land one good punch, it’s Wilder.

Junior featherweight champ Inoue is much younger — 32 — but has been looking increasingly vulnerable the last couple of years. I suspect he’ll get pumped for an all-Japan showdown with Junto Nakatani in his first fight of 2026 and will largely have his way with Nakatani, but we’re hitting that point where someone is bound to make “The Monster” look human soon.

Odds are Usyk gets by Wilder and Inoue gets by Nakatani. But if you figure Usyk fights once more during the calendar year and Inoue twice more, I say the odds are against them both making it out of 2026 undefeated.

Katie Taylor will announce her retirement

With the third win of her trilogy with Amanda Serrano this past July being the first to come controversy-free, Taylor locked up the final missing piece of her legacy as a serious boxer.

So it’s no surprise that her name is now being bandied about in unserious circles as 2026 dawns. There’s talk of a semi-silly fight against recently unretired Hall of Famer Holly Holm, and there’s talk of a fully ludicrous clown show against Ronda Rousey.

Taylor turns 40 in July, and the top fights on her radar are cash grabs? Yeah, we know what that adds up to. Expect her to go ahead and make one such grab, then start her own Hall of Fame induction countdown clock.

The addition of Zuffa Boxing will not noticeably impact Paramount+ subscription numbers

The most recent quarterly report from Paramount+ had the streamer estimating a subscriber base of 79.1 million. That puts it far behind Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+ and Max, but a good bit ahead of Hulu and Peacock.

The hierarchy isn’t about to change on account of Paramount+ getting into boxing with monthly fights from Dana White’s new promotion, for two main reasons: The Zuffa roster does not yet have any stars and thus the fights (at least initially) will not be must-see even for hardcore fans, and boxing fans are already stretched thin paying for streaming subs and PPVs.

Eventually, as Zuffa signs more talent and begins putting on bigger fights, fans will bite the bullet and sign up. But in this first year of the partnership, unless Paramount offers some major discounts to get started, I can’t imagine the needle moving much.

May-Pac II will happen, we will complain and we will watch

Manny Pacquiao is 47, Floyd Mayweather is about to turn 49, it’s been more than a decade now since their wholly unmemorable first fight, and yet … there’s a trail of breadcrumbs pointing to this rematch becoming reality.

There have long been rumors of Pacquiao’s financial struggles, and now there are reports of similar woes for Mayweather. Also, Pacquiao was reportedly in discussions to face Rolly Romero in 2026, and those discussions have been broken off.

For the fighters, May-Pac makes a whole lotta dollars and a whole lotta sense. And while the purists among us will claim we don’t want to see these two guys going through the (slow) motions in their late 40s, when punch comes to shove, we’ll be watching.

(In part because that zero is still on the end of Mayweather’s record and the idea of him risking it still sells, even when he’s about to get on the AARP mailing list.)

Moses Itauma will go past two rounds

It’s not that the British heavyweight phenom has never gotten into the third round before. He went the full six rounds in his third and fourth pro fights.

But otherwise? Eight KO 1s, and three KO 2s.

Enter Jermaine Franklin on January 24 in Manchester. Franklin has never been stopped — not even by Anthony Joshua. He’s crafty, experienced, sturdy … and, yeah, no doubt about it, Itauma is going to knock his ass out. But not until at least the third round.

Either Top Rank or PBC won’t make it through the year

I hope I’m wrong about this, but it just isn’t looking great for either of these veteran promotional powerhouses.

The last fight of Top Rank’s ESPN contract was on July 26 – meaning the company is at five months and counting without a network partner. PBC, meanwhile, is two years into its relationship with Prime Video, and that relationship is built almost exclusively on pay-per-views that Prime doesn’t have to bankroll.

Something has to give. Maybe another promotional company with big bucks behind it will absorb Top Rank or PBC. Maybe Bob Arum and Al Haymon will join forces and form Premier Top Boxing Rank Champions. (Rolls right off the tongue, doesn’t it?)

One way or another, this status quo cannot be maintained for another 12 months. You can only promote fights for so long without somebody paying you for the broadcast rights.

BoxingScene’s Bernie Award count > its Riyadh Season credential count

You know how I said at the top of the column that all 10 of my predictions are guaranteed to come true? Well, maybe I lied. But this is one I’m fully confident in. All it will take is one Bernie for the BoxingScene team to lock this in.

Claressa Shields will have her toughest boxing test since her pro debut

I was actually ringside for Shields’ pro debut — November 19, 2016, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. She faced an opponent who was also making her pro debut, Franchon Crews-Dazurn, and the two-time Olympic gold medalist Shields had her fists full that night, having to work awfully hard to win a four-round decision.

Nearly a full decade later, Shields vs. Crews-Dazurn II is coming, and “The GWOAT” knows full well that she’s up against a legit challenge. Crews-Dazurn has gone 10-1 since that four-round defeat to Shields, the lone loss being a majority decision to Savannah Marshall in the UK.

The only serious struggles Shields has faced in recent years have been in MMA fights and in trying to locate world-class boxing opponents. She’s located and lined up one for February 22. Shields will win, assuredly, but she’ll know she was in a fight for a change.

Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia will end in a draw

Predicting a draw is never a high percentage play. There’s a reason sportsbooks usually price the draw somewhere between +1200 and +2000.

But with Barrios, it should be about even money. Fighting just well/poorly enough to get a draw is what the man does.

And Garcia has turned into the ultimate X factor. He can beat up Devin Haney (with certain advantages, of course) or he can get beaten up by Rolly Romero. When you have a range of possibilities that wide … well, some sort of wacky draw against a guy like Barrios doesn’t seem like such a longshot, does it?

I’m calling my shot exactly: 120-108 for Barrios, 120-108 for Garcia, and 114-114.

And if that doesn’t come true, blame the crystal bell.

Eric Raskin is a veteran boxing journalist with nearly 30 years of experience covering the sport for such outlets as BoxingScene, ESPN, Grantland, Playboy, and The Ring (where he served as managing editor for seven years). He also co-hosted The HBO Boxing Podcast, Showtime Boxing with Raskin & Mulvaney, The Interim Champion Boxing Podcast with Raskin & Mulvaney, and Ring Theory. He has won three first-place writing awards from the BWAA, for his work with The Ring, Grantland, and HBO. Outside boxing, he is the senior editor of CasinoReports and the author of 2014’s The Moneymaker Effect. He can be reached on X, BlueSky, or LinkedIn, or via email at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com.