Canelo's Advantage in Experience Cannot Be Overstated
Sep 16, 2016 • 7:38 AM ET
By Peter Lim
Despite being the challenger, the disparity in experience cannot be overstated in this fight. Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) has more than twice as many pro fights, and at age 26, has already taken on the cream of the crop of the 154-pound division.
With the exception of Floyd Mayweather Jr., he has defeated an impressive list of opponents - a handful of future Hall-of-Famers included - with an equally impressive array of styles.
Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs), on the other hand, has built his record in relatively obscurity against an equally obscure parade of opponents. He won the vacant alphabet belt against a 17-1 fighter and defended it twice against opponents with deceptively-decent resumes.
Style-wise, at this juncture of his career at least, Smith, 28, appears to be a one-dimensional tough guy who chugs forward behind a high peekaboo guard while shooting long thumping jabs. His modus operandi basically boils down to landing first, landing harder and imposing his will to break down his opponents.
The only fighters Alvarez hasn't been able to dominate were Mayweather, Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout. But they were all slick stylists and the latter two were southpaws, so Smith, 28, would be ill-advised to try to reinvent himself and steal a page from their playbooks. Given his skill set, Smith should instead look to Miguel Cotto, a fighter who lost to Alvarez but nevertheless gave him more trouble than the scorecards suggested.
At opportune, albeit sporadic moments, Cotto was able to jolt Alvarez with his jab, kill his rhythm and force him to reset. When Alvarez missed or landed glancing blows, Cotto made him pay with counterpunches upstairs and down. Smith's only chance of pulling off an upset is to duplicate, multiply and improve on Cotto's fleeting moments of success. Unlike Cotto, Smith is a natural 154 pounder so he'll be able to absorb Alvarez's blows more easily, making it more difficult for Alvarez to impose his will.
Talent-wise, Smith might pale in comparison to the versatile Alvarez's, but what he does well, he does pretty darn well, and should he fine-tune that mode of combat exactly right for Alvarez, it might just get the job done. Being first on the jab, dictating a frenetic tempo by applying calculated pressure and throwing punches in bunches at opportune and unexpected spurts is his best (and probably the only) avenue to victory against Alvarez.
Even if Smith implements the precise, above-mentioned battlefield strategy, he will still be a massive underdog given Canelo's own proven ability to adjust mid-fight to his opponents' game plans and his superior boxing IQ. But given both combatants' respective fan-friendly styles, this is guaranteed to be an entertaining fight regardless of duration or outcome.
