The talking is done. The weigh in is complete.
The next time Saul Alvarez and Caleb Plant let their hands go, it won’t be with open palms to get them through the turnstiles. The Alvarez/DAZN marriage of recent years has ended with Alvarez back for now in the Showtime PPV tent (Saturday, 9 PM EST).
Is it a short stay or the beginning of a string of lucrative fights that could eventually include showdowns with David Benavidez and Jermall Charlo? Plant will have a lot to say about that. If he has his way, it will be he and not the established superstar wearing four alphabet titles for the first time at 168 lbs. He’ll have to fight the fight of his life to pull it off.
Does Plant have it in him?
Let’s get into it.
Stats and Stakes
Saul Alvarez
Age: 31
Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 2 Defenses); WBO Super Middleweight (2021-Present, 1st Defense)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 168 lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 56-1-2, 38 KO
Press Rankings: #1 (TBRB, ESPN, BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 16-1-1, 9 KO (17-1-1, 10 KO including WBA sub-title fights)
Last Five Opponents: 147-7-1 (.952)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12; Billy Joe Saunders RTD8
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12
Vs.
Caleb Plant
Age: 29
Title: IBF Super Middleweight (2019-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’1
Weight: 167 lbs.
Stance: Orthodox
Hails from: Nashville, Tennessee
Record: 21-0, 12 KO
Rankings: #2 (TBRB, Ring), #3 (ESPN), #5 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-0, 2 KO
Last Five Opponents: 149-16-2 (.898)
Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Jose Uzcategui UD12; Caleb Truax UD12
Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: None
The Case for Alvarez: Since his rematch victory over Gennady Golovkin, Alvarez has appeared to be in a zone. His patience, punch selection, body attack and timing have all been premium stuff. The activity level Alvarez has kept in the last year hasn’t hurt. This will be his fourth fight in eleven months, though almost seven have passed since he defeated Saunders. Alvarez is an excellent defensive fighter, able to slip shot and come back with authority. If he can make Plant feel his power early off the counter, it could set a tempo for the night. The right to the body will be important and could set up the left hook, especially in moments where Plant is trying to step back to longer range after throwing his own right hand.
The Case for Plant: Plant is taller than Alvarez, but Alvarez has seen height. Plant is a cagey, rangy boxer but Alvarez has seen that too. For Plant to win, he has to make both work for him and stay focused for all twelve rounds. Plant hasn’t shown the sort of finishing touch to do it any other way. Plant has to win more rounds and he can do it by being first, letting his longer arms and timing make up for what appears to be a speed advantage for Alvarez. If Plant can thread the needle, keeping his jab accurate and landing chopping rights before Alvarez can counter, an upset is possible.
The Pick: Plant has a chance here to break through as a real star in the sport. That chance doesn’t look like it comes with enough pop or, more significantly for Plant, speed. Watching recent fights for both, it’s a deficit that jumps out. Perhaps it will look different in the ring, but Plant just doesn’t look to have elite speed and Alvarez appears both quicker and more reflexive. This fight could look competitive for a few rounds but, unless Plant puts a surprising sting on Alvarez early, the heavier hands of Alvarez are going to multiply by the middle of the fight. The pick is Alvarez, either by decision or stoppage some time after the eighth.
Rold Picks 2020: 37-12
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
