By Cliff Rold
Saturday night, after an unfortunate delay from the originally intended go date in April, the second round of the “Super Six” draws to a close. Round three will be ripe with intrigue no matter what. As noted in the BoxingScene “Picks of the Week,” this is the bout which will determine whether the final round of preliminary action occurs in a state of all out chaos.
The fulcrum point between intrigue and chaos is the seventh member of the “Six.” Allan Green wasn’t a part of the tournament when it began, but he was always in the wings. Former Middleweight Champion Jermain Taylor looked like a tentative bet to last through three contests and the thought of who could replace him was there immediately. Green, long perceived a potential serious player in the class, shared a promoter in Lou DiBella and promised the sort of knockout threat no other American in the division offered.
Taylor was knocked silly. Enter Allan Green in what currently is a nearly deadlocked field. As it stands, all five of the men who have been in both rounds are on the scoreboard. Arthur Abraham, despite a loss round two, still leads with three points due to his stopping Taylor; Andre Ward, Andre Dirrell, Mikkel Kessler, and Carl Froch are all tied at two.
Should Ward, a 2004 U.S. Olympic Gold Medalist at Light Heavyweight, defeat Green on Saturday, he will emerge as the leader regardless of his points and punch his ticket into the tournaments semi-finals. Intrigue will abound in round three as the other five men play for three slots, Dirrell providing the most of it on paper as he will be forced to face his friend and Olympic teammate to keep his hopes alive. Froch-Abraham and Kessler-Green will provide the other two semi-finalists at that point with the potential to forward three.
If Green wins or draws? Whether he gets a single point for sister kissing, two points for a decision, or three for a stoppage, it all equals the same result. It all equals chaos. Round three will start with all six men still live and no more than a point separating anyone. For the programmers at Showtime, a Green win Saturday would have to be the dream scenario for a grand experiment.
As good as Ward looked in defeating Kessler in round one, is it a dream which can be fulfilled?
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Andre Ward
Age: 26
Title: WBA Super Middleweight (2009-Present, 1st Attempted Defense)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 167.75 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 168.5 lbs.
Hails from: Oakland, California
Record: 21-0, 13 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 1-0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Mikkel Kessler)
Vs.
Allan Green
Age: 30
Title: 1st Title Fight
Height: 6’2
Weight: 166 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 168.2 lbs.
Hails from: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Record: 29-1, 20 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Ola Afolabi, Carl Daniels)
Pre-Fight Grades
Speed –Ward A; Green B+
Power – Ward B; Green A-
Defense – Ward A; Green B
Intangibles – Ward A; Green B
Ward, giving up just a smidge of height to Green and equaling him in reach, starts off with a critical advantage not just in speed but also activity. While Ward isn’t a whirlwind of action, he’s proven effective in throwing against his opponent’s rhythm. Able to come in with his head low as he jabs, Ward then often ties men up, bodying them with his shoulders and forcing them back when they’d prefer to be countering. It’s not always fun to watch, but it works, and he hits hard enough if not concussively.
Green is not slow of hand but he sometimes seems to be thinking about punching instead of letting his hands go. It could hurt him against Ward. The saving grace is a left hook which whips from slightly underneath. It’s fluid and naturally snapping, an ever present weapon which can force opponents to defend against it to the point where they mitigate their own offense. Green has a decent, if sometimes pushed, jab when he uses it consistently and can box, but his boxing still is about setting up the big shots. His best case scenario is to land the left early and make Ward hesitant to come forward. If he can do that, he’ll have a chance to time Ward’s rushes.
It won’t be easy. Ward’s offense streams easily into his defense. Because Ward doesn’t rely on the knockout to win, he’s willing to go rounds and score points. It doesn’t mean he is unhittable; Kessler caught him with a harsh left hook in the fifth round of their fight last year some occasional rights. Ward never let him get a series of shots off. Green will need his slept on right hand to open up Ward’s defenses consistently or it will be a long, frustrating night. It could also become a fight marked by fouls as Green is unlikely to be as polite, or reliant on the referee, as Kessler was if he feels he’s being fouled.
In terms of intangibles, both men have been hurt in the past and neither may have an iron beard. For now, Ward’s intangibles rate higher because he simply hasn’t lost since he was a pubescent amateur. Green has shown a tendency to fight to the level of lesser foes if he doesn’t get rid of them but deserves high marks for the guts he showed in surviving to the bell of his lone loss. Against big puncher Edison Miranda, suffering from major intestinal illness, Green had an excuse to quit. He did not. An earlier career habit of oddly looking down at his feet has abated in recent years but he still sometimes leaves him head too high when jabbing. Green has waited years for a shot like this. How hard he fights, win or lose, will tell much more about him than is already known.
Of interest, Ward and Green have common foes in Miranda, Rubin Williams, and Jerson Ravelo. They split Miranda but Green at least had him on the floor, both stopped Ravelo in eight, and Green went the distance with Williams while stopped him on cuts. Ward is a prohibitive favorite on Saturday but performances against common foes say they may not be that far apart.
The Pick
They should, on paper, be just far enough apart for Ward to keep a tournament norm in place. No hometown fighter has lost as yet in the “Super Six.” Much of that is a product of who was fighting than where the fight took place, but it’s still an intriguing statistic. Ward knows what Green can threaten him with and has shown himself able to defuse bombs in both the paid and unpaid ranks.
However, the “Super Six” has been full of surprises so far. Ward upsetting Kessler was trumped by the bottom Dirrell showed against Abraham and the sheer guts and will Kessler laid out to defeat Froch. Green winning against the grain of recent results would be as par for the course as Ward doing so. The odds on the fight are certainly too wide.
At this point, it’s still too tough to pick against Ward in Oakland but a proper left hook from Green can change that thinking quickly. It’s what makes Saturday must-see even if it wasn’t already in the thick of the must-see “Super Six.” So, we’ll go tentatively with Ward by decision with a note that, so far, the report card is 2-3 in picking the tournament.
Report Card Picks 2010: 15-10
Weekly Ledger
But wait, there’s more…
KO Lemieux: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=28479
Ratings Update: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=28521
Picks of the Week: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=28533
Cliff’s Notes…The Ward-Green Report Card to come on Friday…Those stupid horns at the World Cup are a killer for an American sports watcher trying to give the “beautiful game” a chance. They’re so obnoxious I almost want to hear “There’s only one” and so on…Fernando Montiel-Eric Morel could be a sleeper. Literally…Bryan Danielson got screwed…Not as bad as the U.S. did in the world Cup though…Congratulations to all those inducted last weekend to the International Boxing Hall of Fame. Lloyd Marshall and Jung Koo Chang were both overdue but so is Harry Jeffra and, with Jeffra still on the ballot, why is Kostya Tszyu considered a lock for next year? Mike Tyson and Julio Cesar Chavez as locks makes sense, but that third slot for next year in the “Modern” category needs more thought before it is proclaimed ahead of time.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
