Comments Thread For: Moloney Opens Up On Nevada Replay Controversy, Trilogy With Franco

[BlackR0bbb]

We have the land mass of the US but our population equal NYC, we got some big open spaces here some cattle stations would swallow Texas.

Makes it a lot easier to jump all over an out break as soon as it happen, the USA has covid running wild all over the country no stopping it now until they get a vaccine.

The problem is that in many places, the mask mandate is not strictly enforced. For instance, we are generally required to wear a mask in NYC, but if you go maybe fifty miles north to another county within the state, you will see folks walking around freely without one. I wear a mask and carry hand sanitizer, but when I go out, I only go out for necessities and come right back home.

Is NZ very different from AU? I always hear AU mentioned in the news, never NZ.

[BlackR0bbb]

Ever wonder why they never bring up the deaths? If you take out NY and Los Angeles deaths due to their idiot mayors killing the elderly, the death toll would be much smaller. Hopefully things clear up in the next 2 weeks with the election. I live in CA and I am getting closer and closer to moving out each day. Good luck to you in NY.

I was never a ********** and never will be one (I'm registered Green Party and generally hate both parties), but observing ******** mayors and governors around he country has made me dislike the ********s a great bit more than **********s. I know all about Cali politics. Pelosi's rich family is very close socially with Newsome's rich family. And don't get me started on the old hags, Maxine Waters and Diane Feinstein. What amazes me is that no one has popped one of them yet. I could never live in Cali. You could offer me $10k/month a promise to pay off all of my debt and I still wouldn't.

[PredatorStyle]

Ok I'm looking at the raw mortality data for the US here and quite clearly there is an excess over and above previous years although that dropped off quite sharply after the inital surge in March and the later bump in July / August

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

Confirmation here that the overall death count in excess of previous years was hovering around 300K between late January and Oct 3.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

So then, we're left with the question of what Ms Briand's analysis of the data is actually looking at and how she comes to the reported claim that “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” Looking at the context it could be that Ms Briand was talking specifically about excess deaths in older folk, or that her analysis was misunderstood or misrepresented in some way by the author of the original article although Ms Briand herself said



Either way the available data don't match what seems to be claimed in the article, and in fact even the chart in the article doesn't really match the claims made very well... the article says:


Whereas in fact best I can tell average mortality in the US pre COVID is about 54K weekly (apx 2.84 mil deaths / year https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm) when in fact the nembers given on the chart with the article give a 62K weekly even through the summer months when the numbers would usually be lower.

So the numbers don't add up and furthermore the language of the article ain't really clear enough to be absolutely sure what's meant. TBH I'd be far more useful - in fact necessary to have Ms Briands original analysis and data to really understand what's being meant, but I've been unable to find it to be sure.

FWIW the original article was removed with these reasons given:



Which tallies pretty well with what I've been able to figure out myself so..

Its also woth noting that for other countries with available data on excess mortality they definitely do show a similar trend and per capita increase to CDCs figures for the US which kinda lends some weight.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

Furthermore the numbers from German and Spain show very clearly a spike in excess mortality in the elderly compared to other years:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-by-age?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

IDK man, pick what you like... seems like some folk reckon this is evidence of some kinda conspiracy, but if it is it's not just in the US but worldwide... furthermore the language of the article is such that it's hard to be 100% clear exactly what is meant and besides it appears to contain contradictory information within so I really don't know. On balance I'd say it's far more likely that Ms Briand had effed up somehow or that the author of the article Yanni Gu has either misunderstood or presented the information poorly than that there's a global misinformation campaign underway, but you gotta make that call for yourself.

Well I couldn't help looking into that "our world in data," and after about 30 seconds of digging, what do you know, my su****ions were immediately satisfied.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation are a main sponsor.

I am not trying to be cynical with you, but this whole thing has been driven by gates, who has of course made insane amounts of capital since it began.

I'd look at the raw data from the governments if I could.

All these little NGO's and non profits are all funded by the same oligarchs and the new stations who are also funded by the oligarchs then go and cite them in their reports.

These days you have to be paranoid to stand any chance of getting the truth I'm afraid.

[Citizen Koba]

Well I couldn't help looking into that "our world in data," and after about 30 seconds of digging, what do you know, my su****ions were immediately satisfied.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation are a main sponsor.

I am not trying to be cynical with you, but this whole thing has been driven by gates, who has of course made insane amounts of capital since it began.

I'd look at the raw data from the governments if I could.

All these little NGO's and non profits are all funded by the same oligarchs and the new stations who are also funded by the oligarchs then go and cite them in their reports.

These days you have to be paranoid to stand any chance of getting the truth I'm afraid.

The bottom of the charts gives you the sources of the data man. You want me to hook you up to the data sets or can you dig 'em out yourself? You got the UK office of National Statistics,

https://www.ons.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2020-to-2021

German Fedreral Office of statistics (helpfully they have it in English if you like)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

and the human mortality database:

https://www.mortality.org/ (if you navigate to the blue textbox where it says here it links to the weekly datasets from the various national statistics databases of the involved countries)


In addition we got Eurpean data here:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps (though their data sources ain't quite so clear)

You want I hook you up to the national statistics offices of some other countries too?


Believe me I got no trust of anyone with that degree of money either... that kinda concentration of wealth is inherently un********ic whatever the motivations of the people who hold it. However whether or not you trust the motives of the Gates' or not, to disbelieve the data accumulation of Government offices and staistics bureus across dozens of countries presupposes a conspiracy of great magnitude. Is that where you're at man?

Just because you trust the don't Gates' man, it doesn't follow that everyone they give a grant to is attempting to deceive you or is part of some uberconspiracy. Our World in data tells you what their sources are so you can actually check for yourself... which is in fact what I usually do. I actually do fact checking as a source of income sometimes, man (though less often over the last few years) which means I got a fair bit of an idea how this shet works, ain't unusual for me to actually track down and analyse original research papers and stuff when I get to gunning for answers. Just the way I am man... got that curiosity thing going on.

It doesn't cross your mind that one article in a student magazine that is both unclear and self contradictory probably isn't very strong grounds for simply discarding the national statistics across dozens of countries?

[PredatorStyle]

Too long...

OK. So firstly, I didn't realise John Hopkins was a student journal or that Briand was a student. I thought that it was a high authority in the US.

I have spent a little time trying to dig in to the raw data. I find it a bit painful if I'm honest because I haven't used excel for years and I am not quite sure how best to approach the statistics.

You notice that different countries seem to have had their death spikes in different months.

I did notice two interesting things though, so far:

1. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...dom/death-rate

Notice on that site they project the death rate forward to 2100. Now, I have no idea how they do that, but they do not include Covid in their projection. What is interesting is that they predict a large increase in deaths on a linear curve till 2100, and we are now over the threshold. Meaning: it could in fact be that the increase we are seeing on the micro trend since covid, is in fact just the beginning of the up tick on the macro trend. From there, I can come up with all sorts of theories. These oligarchs by definition spend all day studying trends and charts. They are investors and into game theory etc.

2. This one I just did by following your link to morality.org. I went to the UK and simply got the sum total of deaths for weeks 25 - 35 for the last 6 yrs. Here are my results:

2015 198118
2016 200868
2017 200772
2018 198880
2019 200248
2020 199616

I don't know if that is useful or just nonsense because I am not a trained statistician. I don't know what the best method would be, do you?

[Citizen Koba]

OK. So firstly, I didn't realise John Hopkins was a student journal or that Briand was a student. I thought that it was a high authority in the US.

I have spent a little time trying to dig in to the raw data. I find it a bit painful if I'm honest because I haven't used excel for years and I am not quite sure how best to approach the statistics.

You notice that different countries seem to have had their death spikes in different months.

I did notice two interesting things though, so far:

1. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...dom/death-rate

Notice on that site they project the death rate forward to 2100. Now, I have no idea how they do that, but they do not include Covid in their projection. What is interesting is that they predict a large increase in deaths on a linear curve till 2100, and we are now over the threshold. Meaning: it could in fact be that the increase we are seeing on the micro trend since covid, is in fact just the beginning of the up tick on the macro trend. From there, I can come up with all sorts of theories. These oligarchs by definition spend all day studying trends and charts. They are investors and into game theory etc.

2. This one I just did by following your link to morality.org. I went to the UK and simply got the sum total of deaths for weeks 25 - 35 for the last 6 yrs. Here are my results:

2015 198118
2016 200868
2017 200772
2018 198880
2019 200248
2020 199616

I don't know if that is useful or just nonsense because I am not a trained statistician. I don't know what the best method would be, do you?

Mmmm. Now this could make for an interesting bit of research, ain't gonna claim I'm a trained statistician myself, but I got a solid enough knowledge to understand and interpret data and use a few tools. Tell you what - I got a few jobs on todaya nd a coupla meetings this eve but I'll try and give the data more of a look over tonight or tomorrow day. Probably the easiest way of doing it is to try to verify some random points on the various graphs and see whether they add up... if we take maybe a half dozen or so it should give us a pretty good idea.

If you got one particular chart or whatever you'd like me to concentrate on we can do that and maybe pick out a few weeks at random and I'll compare with the source data. Be interested to see what comes outta it.

With regards to the death rate projections going into the future it's unlikely that COVID will be massively statistically significant, however what will be hugely impactful and I'd guess the primary reason for the projected increase is simple demographics - an aging population on average makes for more deaths. That'd be my immediate guess anyway, although that could be interesting to look into in a bit more detail too.

Low birth rates and extended lifespans mean we're gonna be facing a demographic crisis over the next few decades across the devloped world, couple that with a decline in agriculturally useful landspace and climate change (whether yuou believe it's cyclical or anthropogenic) and as a species I reckon we're in for a rough ride in the coming decades... s'kinda why all this divison and polarisation upsets me so much... right now is the time humanity really needs to be working together, getting our **** together and acting like a grown up species and instead all we got is 'alternative facts' and zealtotry pulling us in a dozen different directions unable to even agree on a consensus reality.

[PredatorStyle]

Mmmm. Now this could make for an interesting bit of research, ain't gonna claim I'm a trained statistician myself, but I got a solid enough knowledge to understand and interpret data and use a few tools. Tell you what - I got a few jobs on todaya nd a coupla meetings this eve but I'll try and give the data more of a look over tonight or tomorrow day. Probably the easiest way of doing it is to try to verify some random points on the various graphs and see whether they add up... if we take maybe a half dozen or so it should give us a pretty good idea.

If you got one particular chart or whatever you'd like me to concentrate on we can do that and maybe pick out a few weeks at random and I'll compare with the source data. Be interested to see what comes outta it.

With regards to the death rate projections going into the future it's unlikely that COVID will be massively statistically significant, however what will be hugely impactful and I'd guess the primary reason for the projected increase is simple demographics - an aging population on average makes for more deaths. That'd be my immediate guess anyway, although that could be interesting to look into in a bit more detail too.

Low birth rates and extended lifespans mean we're gonna be facing a demographic crisis over the next few decades across the devloped world, couple that with a decline in agriculturally useful landspace and climate change (whether yuou believe it's cyclical or anthropomorphic) and as a species I reckon we're in for a rough ride in the coming decades... s'kinda why all this divison and polarisation upsets me so much... right now is the time humanity really needs to be working together, getting our **** together and acting like a grown up species and instead all we got is 'alternative facts' and zealtotry pulling us in a dozen different directions unable to even agree on a consensus reality.

I have no idea how best to approach it. You notice that different countries have their spike at different months as it spread around from country to country. All that looks perfectly believable.

I think I'll spend some more time with that spread sheet from mortality.org. No one would try to fudge that data because so few people could be bothered going through a spreadsheet of raw data with thousands of records :P

On humanity being screwed: I wouldn't hold your breath for mankind working as one. Humanity is really an abstraction to most people. Tribal affiliations feel real. There are also mutually annihilating world views in competition with each other. There are also - I hate to say it - evil people. People who do evil only for evils sake and not for profit. So, don't hold your breath.

I can cope with that knowledge cause I'm religious.

[Citizen Koba]

OK. So firstly, I didn't realise John Hopkins was a student journal or that Briand was a student. I thought that it was a high authority in the US.

Sorry didn't address this bit: John's Hopkins is a hugely respected institution, of course, however the referenced (and subsequently removed) article was published not as a peer reviewed paper or thesis which could be scrutised and subject to scholarly criticism but as a article in the 'Johns Hopkins newsletter' a student published magazine style website which is not subject to normal academic oversight and not a part of the Universities academic output.

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/

Editorial comment from JHN explaining why the article was removed including a link to the pdf of the orignal article (same one you linked me to):

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

Furthermore the full analysis itself is never linked and was in fact carried out not by an epidemiologist but by an economist. It also contradicts itself and gives confusing or possibly innaccurate conclusions... though whether these are down to misinterpretations of the article's aurthor rather than Ms Briands analysis is not clear. As a source it is very highly dubious for these reasons. We can go over it in abit more detail if you like and I'll show the problems but since I already pointed out the major ones in a previous post I'd hope it ain't necessary.

[Citizen Koba]

I have no idea how best to approach it. You notice that different countries have their spike at different months as it spread around from country to country. All that looks perfectly believable.

I think I'll spend some more time with that spread sheet from mortality.org. No one would try to fudge that data because so few people could be bothered going through a spreadsheet of raw data with thousands of records :P

On humanity being screwed: I wouldn't hold your breath for mankind working as one. Humanity is really an abstraction to most people. Tribal affiliations feel real. There are also mutually annihilating world views in competition with each other. There are also - I hate to say it - evil people. People who do evil only for evils sake and not for profit. So, don't hold your breath.

I can cope with that knowledge cause I'm religious.

I ain't a religious man, but I've respect for all faiths and all people who are open minded in the pursuit of knowledge... and I ain't really expecting humanity to come together as one but that ain't gonna stop me hoping for it and maybe working to promote that ideal where I can, every little helps way I see it.

And hey, I got no issue dealing with being an inconsequential speck in a dark and uncaring cosmos, and in believing we only got one shot at life before oblivion... if anything it's all the more reason to live the life we got with meaning, but I guess we each gotta rationalise the universe our own way.

And evil? Yeah I see evil, though I don't know whether we see it in the same places. I see it in bigotry and racism, I see it in intolerence and greed, I see it in zealotry and I see it in the sneering contempt of demagogues and those who peddle fear and anger for their own advantage.

[PredatorStyle]

Too long...

Ok it looks like I was wrong. I took that data from mortality.org, compared some years from the 1st week to the 45th week. Here is the data:

2017 - 458619
2018 - 470066
2019 - 453281
2020 - 517665

So quite a big jump, overall. I'm not sure how much of that was covid, but that's as far as I go down that rabbit hole.