Fury's chances a mathematical approach

[lparm]

We know that at 50% the king beats 90% of heavyweights 100% of the time. So that last 10% he has a 40% chance of beating 90% of them leaving only 1% of heavyweights capable of beating Fury 75% of the time at 50%. Now if he gets to 70% that 40% of the 90% of the 10% of heavyweights that he may beat him raises to 56% meaning he has a 44% chance of losing to 90% of the top 10% of heavyweights. That last 1% when he's at 70% gives him a 34% odds of beating the best of the best.

The king is back

[Santa_]

[gingerbreadman]

OK, I'm game.

a) Kudos for the attempt to roll with Bayesian-style analysis on NSB.

b) Whence does this beautiful ******* of percentages derive, and whence in particular their provenance?

c) Even then, the last line of analysis pertains to certain concomitant, esoteric and innumerate variables that could be said to have an level of absolute and perhaps even supererogatory influence upon the matter at hand; specifically the level at which the paradigm that holds for the majority of the overall system decoheres (at what might be called the 'Planck distance' of boxing') into a different paradigm due to the increased weight of certain variables. Moreover, the influence of this statistically minute subset of the overall system nonetheless has an incommensurate effect on the shape and emergence of the system as a whole.

TLDR; even if these numbers are true the king ain't back, because his inability to beat the 1% matters more than him beating the 99%, because OP's dazzling numbers don't map the influence of $$$ held by the 1%. QED.

[Madison Boxing]

I'm not good at maths but I know there's 100 percent likelihood that an in shape Tyson fury beats that donkey from alabama

[Kezzer]

Sounds like wilder has been sharing his weed across the pond ��

[just the facts]

You can post all of the numbers you want but the facts remain. Fury can't go 12 rounds with either Wilder or Joshua without them getting to that weak chin. Both Ko Fury.

[just the facts]

I'm not good at maths but I know there's 100 percent likelihood that an in shape Tyson fury beats that donkey from alabama

Another skin pigmentation conclusion on your part, no doubt.

[Rockybigblower]

I tinkered with your calculations a little bit and this is what I came up with

[MDPopescu]

Fury's chances a mathematical approach

We know that at 50% the king beats 90% of heavyweights 100% of the time. So that last 10% he has a 40% chance of beating 90% of them leaving only 1% of heavyweights capable of beating Fury 75% of the time at 50%. Now if he gets to 70% that 40% of the 90% of the 10% of heavyweights that he may beat him raises to 56% meaning he has a 44% chance of losing to 90% of the top 10% of heavyweights. That last 1% when he's at 70% gives him a 34% odds of beating the best of the best.

The king is back

... liked it very much!...

... but, unfortunately, this isn't a "mathematical approach"... it's a "statistical approach" -- statistics isn't mathematics, though...

... but it was funny!... because it shows how shitty the "statistical metaphysics" may be...

[lparm]

When you add it all up it spells doom for the heavyweight division.

The king is back