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The problem with the "hardcores know better than casuals" argument is that while "hardcore" fans collect a lot more information about boxing, a lot of it is complete BS. In the recent past this has often skewed people's perceptions so they've made really dumb predictions.
Some famous examples in recent years:
Joshua vs Martin:
Uneducated "casual" fan's opinion - "Who the **** is this guy Martin? He's never fought anyone I've heard of, he's in terrible shape and won his title against a guy that fell over. Meanwhile, AJ's a gold medallist who is in perfect physical condition and is knocking everyone out. AJ is going to KO Martin."
Educated "hardcore" fan's opinion - "Martin is slick southpaw with great fundamentals, he's a throwback to the 90s era heavyweights. On the other hand, while AJ is a gold medallist, anyone who knows boxing knows that he lost most of his fights in the Olympics and he's been fighting bums ever since. Martin's going to KO that hypejob AJ."
Result - Joshua KOs Martin in 2.
Garcia vs Matthysse:
Uneducated "casual" fan's opinion - "Garcia is the unbeaten unified champion. He's beaten guys I've heard of like Khan, Morales and Zab Judah. I don't know many of Matthysse's opponents but he has two loses on his record so I'm gonna go with Garcia."
Educated "hardcore" fan's opinion - "Garcia only has one punch, he can't actually box and he's been extremely lucky in his fights so far. Matthysse isn't known to a lot of people yet but clearly the new Pacquiao because he KO'd Lamont Peterson. He's gonna knockout that bum Garcia too."
Result - Garcia decisions Matthysse.
What are examples where limited boxing knowledge is proven correct against the perceived wisdom of fans "who know boxing"? Or, what are your predictions for the future that go against the grain of what the "hardcore" fans think?
Some famous examples in recent years:
Joshua vs Martin:
Uneducated "casual" fan's opinion - "Who the **** is this guy Martin? He's never fought anyone I've heard of, he's in terrible shape and won his title against a guy that fell over. Meanwhile, AJ's a gold medallist who is in perfect physical condition and is knocking everyone out. AJ is going to KO Martin."
Educated "hardcore" fan's opinion - "Martin is slick southpaw with great fundamentals, he's a throwback to the 90s era heavyweights. On the other hand, while AJ is a gold medallist, anyone who knows boxing knows that he lost most of his fights in the Olympics and he's been fighting bums ever since. Martin's going to KO that hypejob AJ."
Result - Joshua KOs Martin in 2.
Garcia vs Matthysse:
Uneducated "casual" fan's opinion - "Garcia is the unbeaten unified champion. He's beaten guys I've heard of like Khan, Morales and Zab Judah. I don't know many of Matthysse's opponents but he has two loses on his record so I'm gonna go with Garcia."
Educated "hardcore" fan's opinion - "Garcia only has one punch, he can't actually box and he's been extremely lucky in his fights so far. Matthysse isn't known to a lot of people yet but clearly the new Pacquiao because he KO'd Lamont Peterson. He's gonna knockout that bum Garcia too."
Result - Garcia decisions Matthysse.
What are examples where limited boxing knowledge is proven correct against the perceived wisdom of fans "who know boxing"? Or, what are your predictions for the future that go against the grain of what the "hardcore" fans think?
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