Comments Thread For: Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin - Analysis and Opinion

[eco1]

His analysis is mix of over-simplistic in places, incorrect in others, but with a couple of interesting observations. Worth reading his prediction of the fight from his blogspot, copied below. It suggests that Golovkin's jab will be ineffective over the first 6, instead suggesting that Golovkin 'charges' rather than try controlling the distance, presumably like a bull with Canelo playing the matador. If it played out that way over the first 6, I would be shocked at Golovkin's ******ity more than anything else.

To label this fight as a skills-versus-power matchup would simply be an overgeneralization. True, Alvarez has the edge in skills and Golovkin in power. But Canelo is no slouch in the power department and GGG, a former Olympic gold medalist, might have lost a mere 10 rounds in his previous 17 title defenses.

Canelo's superior hand and foot speed befuddles GGG for the first half of the fight. Fluidly sidestepping GGG's charges, Canelo rattles the Kazakh with picturesque and rapid-fire combinations to the head and ribcage like no other boxer has done before. GGG finds sporadic moments of success with his jab and by investing in well-placed crunching shots to the torso, but they are too few and far between to win any of the first six rounds.

The power differential begins to mark a shift in momentum in the seventh round. While Canelo is a natural 154-pounder who hits like a middleweight, GGG is a natural 160-pounder who hits like a light heavyweight. As flashy and crowd-pleasing as Canelo's flurries were in the first half of the fight, GGG's more deliberate and educated punches has exacted more of a toll on Canelo than vice versa.

Pumping his sledgehammer jab overtime, GGG presses the action with calculated pressure and begins to land the more debilitating blows with increasing frequency. Canelo feistily continues to box and **** but it becomes clear that his punches don't pack the same TNT as those of GGG.

Going into the ninth round, it appears Canelo has built enough of a lead to simply stay on his feet, cruise and perhaps steal one more round to win the fight. But his Mexican DNA refuses to let him turn into a Mayweather. He meets GGG head on and pays a high price as GGG gets the better of the exchanges with bludgeoning punches upstairs and down.

GGG drops Canelo for the first time in his career with a body shot at the end of the tenth round that appears to sap him of whatever reserves he has left in his tank. Rather than resorting to survival mode, Canelo decides to go for broke and comes out firing with both fists in the eleventh round. GGG easily absorbs the incoming fire and drops Canelo three more times but the brave Mexican beats the count each time and miraculously survives the round.

Coming out for the final round, Canelo is an exhausted fighter but GGG has also depleted most of his firepower. He goes through the motions of chasing Canelo around the ring, doing enough to win the round but unable to land a fight-ending punch. At the end of the day, all judges have Canelo winning more rounds but GGG is declared the victor by close but unanimous decision courtesy of the multiple knockdowns.

What 9th round?

[HI-TECH Boxing]

I don't understand why people are saying Canelo is the more skilled of the two.
It's probably because he looks the faster and flashier. I notice that people perceive fast flashy combinations as skills.
I think GGG is more skilled. Here is a little example, nothing major, but if you go to most boxing sources (ex. YouTube channels) that like to do breakdowns of fighters you will more than likely see someone breaking down what GGG is doing in there.
I have rarely seen anyone doing anything with Canelo. Canelo is not as skilled as he is being given credit for.
That's not to say he is not skilled. He is a very skilled fighter. And one thing I like about him is that he always tries to learn. He could have easily stayed the same as when he was coming up but the guy has tried to learn. And he always seems to improve. That's what I respect a lot from Alvarez. This is no doubt the best Canelo to date.
And win, lose, or draw today I'm sure he will try to improve even further.

Believe me Canelo is skilled, I'm not saying he is not, actually I think Canelo's skills get underestimated when people talk about potential fights against guys like Andrade, Charlo's, etc.
I just don't think he's as skilled as GGG. I know the "cool thing" for many is to dislike GGG, mainly because of his fans I'm guessing, but ignore that for a second and you'll know GGG is a fighter that knows what he is doing in there.

[angkag]

To better understand this fight, just plonk Canelo in the centre of the ring, draw a circle around him, and label it 'Canelo's wheelhouse'.

The only person to date who has been able to enter that wheelhouse and dictate terms to him has been Mayweather. Not only that, but Mayweather could dictate from outside the wheelhouse too; and enter and exit as he chose.

That's not to say you have to be Mayweather to beat Canelo in his wheelhouse, just that to date, no-one else has been able to do it.

Lara stayed out the wheelhouse, and had the speed to jump in, deliver punches, and get out. Lara dictated the early rounds that way, but slowed down and lost the middle of the fight, before Canelo tired himself and Lara could get back to sniping (a bit of a simplification, but was part of it).

Trout didn't have Lara's fleet-of-foot, so spent more time in the wheelhouse, which was Canelo's territory.

So how will Golovkin deal with the Canelo wheelhouse ?

(1) does he have the power to be able to move in and match him in there ? Or does Canelo's head/body movement, quick feet (his foot movement is good in his wheelhouse where the feet move along with the rest of him) and fast hands mean that even Golovkin can't go there ? Or.....
(2) can Golovkin keep Canelo imprisoned in his wheelhouse with his jab so that he doesn't have to move into it and fight fire with fire ? Keeping Canelo in his wheelhouse uses less energy than Canelo will use trying to get out of it, which leads to......
(3) Golovkin instinctively keeps the opponent under pressure at all times, and Canelo has a history of tiring and taking breaks in fights. He gets no breaks in this one. Will Canelo tire ? What happens next ? Does Golovkin wait till he senses weakness then go into the wheelhouse ? Who comes out best if that happens ?
(4) Can Canelo 'move his wheelhouse' against Golovkin early fight so that Golovkin is then on the back foot and eventually is forced or coaxed into it even though its not his Plan A? Possible. Requires Canelo consistently slipping the jab, which he can do.

Depending on how you answer these questions, you get your winner.

[OmarRueben]

Younger Canelo uses speed and mobility to drill commie ggg

Look for a close decision win for Canelo setting up a more lucrative 2nd fight and then a rubber match for $25 million each. Winning this fight matters little as the 2nd and 3rd fights are the big money fights.

[angkag]

Didn't listen to this before, but mentioning Teddy Atlas, here's his prediction (Canelo wins close fight on points).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1w5GSgBbWc

For him its either that Golovkin has deteriorated, or exposed as not being the full package, and that combined with Canelo's speed and youth, Canelo edges it.

Whether agreeing or disagreeing with him, Teddy's always worth a listen and knows his stuff. Surprised he didn't mention the jab more though given how much stock he puts in it, I'm guessing that means he expects Canelo to be able to negate it with head, body and foot movement and move his wheelhouse on Golovkin.

Interesting observation on Canelo's combos: '3 punches and get out', vs '4 punches you're taking a risk' and '5 punches your in danger'.

[ruedboy]

I think the main question in the fight is does Alvarez's prime physicality at 27 reveal the diminishing skills of a 35 year old fighter?
If that's the case, Canelo by decision.
If GGG can hold off Father Time, I see the Kazakh keeping Alvarez on his back foot most of the fight like he did with Jacobs.
Jacob's will prove to be the more difficult opponent, Golovkin stops the Mexican inside 10.
We know a young, hungry Alvarez will show up but the question is, has the ship sailed for GGG?
All questions answered tonight, I'm hoping for a good fight and a good night for the sport.

[kushking]

Gtards forget that footwork is not what they believe. Most idiots on boxing scene think if a fighter is not able to run away backwards they have bad footwork & conversely if someone covers tons of ground they have great footwork supposedly. Footwork is so much more complex than that,it has to do with style of fighter,lateral skills,power,counters etc.etc. which all play a role in what each fighters ideal footwork is.

Canelos Style & power/defense mean he would be a moron to adopt the footwork of other chicken legs like jacobs,lara,etc with less punch resistance which would be a waste of energy. His footwork is perfect for his style,of course he can improve on chasing runners down but he generates so much force because he plants himself no different than any other power puncher. Ggg has horrible footwork going backwards,he freezes up completely when being pushed back so its funny listening to idiots act like his footwork is amazing & canelos is garbage they both have what suits their skillset. Ggg has the better footwork going forward,canelo has better going backwards & fighting off the back foot. Canelo has far better defense by a mile. Much is always made of gggs amatuer experience which means nothing as he got many more yrs in amatuers than most & still didn't get gold.

[kushking]

I don't understand why people are saying Canelo is the more skilled of the two.
It's probably because he looks the faster and flashier. I notice that people perceive fast flashy combinations as skills.
I think GGG is more skilled. Here is a little example, nothing major, but if you go to most boxing sources (ex. YouTube channels) that like to do breakdowns of fighters you will more than likely see someone breaking down what GGG is doing in there.
I have rarely seen anyone doing anything with Canelo. Canelo is not as skilled as he is being given credit for.
That's not to say he is not skilled. He is a very skilled fighter. And one thing I like about him is that he always tries to learn. He could have easily stayed the same as when he was coming up but the guy has tried to learn. And he always seems to improve. That's what I respect a lot from Alvarez. This is no doubt the best Canelo to date.
And win, lose, or draw today I'm sure he will try to improve even further.

Believe me Canelo is skilled, I'm not saying he is not, actually I think Canelo's skills get underestimated when people talk about potential fights against guys like Andrade, Charlo's, etc.
I just don't think he's as skilled as GGG. I know the "cool thing" for many is to dislike GGG, mainly because of his fans I'm guessing, but ignore that for a second and you'll know GGG is a fighter that knows what he is doing in there.

His gggroupies tout his supposed 300+ wins few Ls yet none can post a shred of PROOF & from my research his amateur resume is a myth as he has verifiably lost at least 8 fights not the # they claim. Canelo had an amateur record of 44-2 before age 15 & surely many of gggs wins were as a kid himself,not to mention in Kazakhstan boxing is barely maturing,most those amatuer wins were vs worse than bums by common sense rationale in 3-4 rd fights. People act as if that should count 4 more than fighting as a pro from 15 vs grown men & as if that somehow means hes more schooled/skilled than canelo. Canelo at age 27 has more than twice as many pro rds boxed than ggg & has gone the 12 rd distance more times than ggg. People are so naive as to forget canelo has been challenging himself since age 19 vs the best opponents possible,he destroyed Mosely 1 yr after pac did,he blasted out cintron who most nutthuggers like Dan Rapheal claimed would be too much 4 him.

For a fighter canelos age to have his current resume at his age is amazing. Ggg fought complete cans til age 30 or so,then still fought rosado with 5 Ls at full mw,he fought adama on non tv instead of Mora on HBO,he is 35 & is yet to face a actual full champion,let alone in his prime or a true mw,but canelo gets clowned 4 supposed lil guys who are usually his size or bigger,with exception of kahn,Lopez who had broke Ortiz's Jaw when ortiz was signed to fight canelo.

[triplohe]

Didn't listen to this before, but mentioning Teddy Atlas, here's his prediction (Canelo wins close fight on points).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1w5GSgBbWc

For him its either that Golovkin has deteriorated, or exposed as not being the full package, and that combined with Canelo's speed and youth, Canelo edges it.

Whether agreeing or disagreeing with him, Teddy's always worth a listen and knows his stuff. Surprised he didn't mention the jab more though given how much stock he puts in it, I'm guessing that means he expects Canelo to be able to negate it with head, body and foot movement and move his wheelhouse on Golovkin.

Interesting observation on Canelo's combos: '3 punches and get out', vs '4 punches you're taking a risk' and '5 punches your in danger'.

Teddy is a complete moron. He says controversial stuff just to stay in the spotlight.

He's literally the only boxing media member to not have ggg in p4p.

[Passion Dean]

Canelo is a more skilled boxer than GGG. Just cause you have success in the Amateurs doesn't automatically mean your more skilled than someone, but What GGG does isn't complicated, not saying it's not effective. He sticks a jab, cuts off the ring and puts you in uncomfortable situations and loads up on power shots.

Being as effective counter puncher as Canelo takes lots of skill, so does his waiste movements followed by lots of combination punches. To be flashy and slick takes skill. Leading someone to the ropes to set a trap takes tremendous skill also.