Is Canelo vs. GGG even that big of a fight financially?

[SeekDaGreat]

Well, it's the biggest financial fight in the game right now. Maybe only thing bigger is Canelo-Pacquiao.

[The Smash]

I've been saying for a while now that it's not as big as some people seem to think. Cotto is only behind Pac and Mayweather in terms of being a draw and that fight didn't break a million. Canelo and Cotto are two of the biggest draws and had the Mex/PR rivalry. I don't see any way GGG and Canelo breaks a million if that fight couldn't. It'd be successful and is the biggest fight that can be made, but Pacquiao and Mayweather has confused people as to what a successful PPV is. Both were crossover stars with the kind of popularity we may not see again for a very long time.

Exactly it.

Well said.

[Motorcity Cobra]

We don't really know until it happens, but all signs seem to say that it is a big fight that could do over 1 million in ppv sales.

None of these fighters will ever be as big on ppv as mayweather and pacquaio were...the market has changed, and those two guys had a lot of luck as far as being in the right place at the right time (besides being great).

It is the biggest fight that can be made in boxing...Yes, big enough where the b side can comfortably make 8 figures.

Cotto-Canelo didn't do 1 mil in PPV. GGG isn't more known than Cotto. Cotto PPV's have all outsold GGG'S. What makes you think this fight could generate 1 mil in ppv sales?

[j0zef]

Yes, it absolutely is that big, and you're completely wrong on the financials.

If GBP thought they'd lose money on this fight they would never offer that flat fee. The fact that virtually everyone ridiculed them for that offer shows that everyone knows it's a tremendous low ball.

A lot of people severely understate Golovkin's popularity. Do an internet popularity/search trend and you'll see that Golovkin's fame has been steadily increasing - and it has been over a year since Lemieux PPV. His low budget PPV with Lemieux, which had 150K buys, came against an opponent without fame. If anything, Lemieux is very similar to Liam Smith in that. Canelo's 'low popularity' PPV equivalent did ~250K PPVs. That's your comparison.
When people talk about how "Golovkin is not popular", you gotta put it in perspective. No, he's not Cotto, Canelo or Floyd, but his PPV, which had 2 foreigners, did significantly more than the other low budget PPV that starred a true blood American (Crawford). He's not a superstar, but to pretend he's some unknown bum is absolutely not true.

And let's run the numbers. Let's say the fight does even less than Cotto/Canelo. Let's say it only does 700K PPVs. That's 700*75 = $53M worth of revenue, with half going to HBO. Add ~$10M live gate, you have $36M worth of revenue. Even if we overestimate all the expenses, undercards, etc, let's say it's $5M (which is much higher than the actuals come to most of the time). That leaves $31M worth of revenue to be split between the fighters. If Golovkin got $10M, that basically makes it a ~70/30 split.

Pretty much the only way the $10M fee works to Golovkin's advantage is if this PPV completely and absolutely bombs and does ~300k PPVs. Considering that it's been marinated and has so much drama associated with it, most industry experts expect this PPV to explode and easily do more than a million PPVs.

[lopetego]

Cotto-Canelo didn't do 1 mil in PPV. GGG isn't more known than Cotto. Cotto PPV's have all outsold GGG'S. What makes you think this fight could generate 1 mil in ppv sales?

This match wont even make as much money as Canelo-Cotto

people who think this match will reach 1 mil PPV are delusional

boxing is on decline and streaming is rampant

I highly doubt we will see +mil numbers again

the Floyd-Pac snoozefest was the last nail in the coffin for those kind of PPVs

[Sadiqkingofko]

I see this fight having a 35 million gate, 800K ppv 70 dollars a peice that's 56 million dollars, HBO makes half theres 28 million left promoters make half of that than the is 49 million left for the fighters 39 million - Canelo / 10 million - Golovkin

[Motorcity Cobra]

I think even on a bad day this fight generates $25-30 million for the main event fighters (after network cut, undercard, and all costs).

Please don't ask for me to elaborate further just use your common sense.

PPV $70 ea at 700k = $49 mil. Half goes to the distributor and 7.5% goes to the network. So now you're already at $20 mil. GGG gets his $10 mil and now you're at $10 mil. Subtract undercard purse, canelo purse, advertising costs, etc and you're operating in the negative. But you can add the gate and sponsors so you're probably around $10 mil gate and $3 mil sponsors.

[Motorcity Cobra]

I think Cotto's popularity has been way down for a while. Golovkin already sells more tickets in New York than Cotto does anymore.

I'm not saying Golovkin is a ppv money machine on his own or anything. I just think this particular fight is very big when all of the factors are added up.

He sold more tickets than Cotto but Cotto's gate was higher.

[PK3434]

He sold more tickets than Cotto but Cotto's gate was higher.

And the people that bought tickets will likely want to buy them again, even at a higher price. That is what good promotion and an exciting fighter can do.

The gate for a Canelo-Golovkin match would be huge.

Mexican fans are very supportive when they think its a tough, even match up. They didn't support Canelo-Smith to that extent, but they sure as hell supported Chavez jr vs Martinez, and Canelo is a stronger A side than chavez, and Golovkin is a stronger b side than Martinez.

Look, I could be wrong, obviously. There isn't an exact science to all of the stats we are mentioning. But I do think that Canelo-Golovkin can be a very big mainstream type of fight: A little bigger than Canelo-Cotto was, probably a little smaller than Mayweather-Cotto.

[Boxfan83]

And the people that bought tickets will likely want to buy them again, even at a higher price. That is what good promotion and an exciting fighter can do.

The gate for a Canelo-Golovkin match would be huge.

Mexican fans are very supportive when they think its a tough, even match up. They didn't support Canelo-Smith to that extent, but they sure as hell supported Chavez jr vs Martinez, and Canelo is a stronger A side than chavez, and Golovkin is a stronger b side than Martinez.

Look, I could be wrong, obviously. There isn't an exact science to all of the stats we are mentioning. But I do think that Canelo-Golovkin can be a very big mainstream type of fight: A little bigger than Canelo-Cotto was, probably a little smaller than Mayweather-Cotto.

I think the gate might be the biggest $ ratio in the whole equation which makes me reluctant to think that this fight would be a Monster $$$ maker because I dont think people will pay $70 for this fight. Personally I think GBP would be smart to go with a low PPV price and raise the gate prices. Those private ticket distributers will buy all those tickets...