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From east*side*boxing.com
My Heavyweight Picks
10.03.06 - By Izyaslav “Slava” Koza: Nowadays, prediction making has lost some of its luster because of the fact that writers, and critics, for the most part, can’t embed themselves in training camps. Take, for example, when Rustam Nugaev recently took out that tall drink of water called, Mora, sure there may have been some who predicted a 5th round TKO, yet probably not the reason for it. What I mean is, had there been somebody following Mora through training camp, they would see he was not prepared enough for the fight at that weight. This is really why I don’t see a sense in making hardcore, stick to your guns predictions, because there are just so many variables to consider that it doesn’t mean much (unless you put money on it) even if you are right.
For instance, though my official prediction was not posted in an article before the fight due to high traffic to the site, I did, in fact, pick Calzaghe to win by decision. However, the truth is, I thought the fight would be more competitive and since it was fought in Britain, where there might be issues with scoring from a purely statistical standpoint. So, although I picked Calzaghe to win, my prediction wasn’t really “correct,” from a reasoning standpoint.
To make my point, though, since it is for fun, and I do enjoy sounding important, I will make some predictions for the upcoming heavyweight fights. However, the twist I wanted to add to the story is that rather then telling you why I picked who and how to win, I will attempt to explain what the other guy has to do in my mind to come out on top. Even then, of course, that doesn’t put an exclamation point on it, but I thought it would seem interesting to approach predictions this way. So, without further ado, here goes:
TITLE FIGHTS
James Toney - Hasim Rahman
My Pick: James Toney
In order for Hasim Rahman to win this fight, he has to do one thing and that is, “run.” From my lookout, he has to get on his bike, as early as possible, much like Roy Jones did against Toney, and attempt to outbox the more skilled Toney from the outside, banking rounds, rather than looking to mix it up and ending up getting schooled. The problem is James Toney is not in shape and is also older than Rahman, which is a weakness yet to be exploited, I think. James Toney likes to piss the holy hell out of all his opponents, for many reasons, but most importantly, I think it's to get his opponents into a furious, get even mindset, where they're not thinking clearly, and forget all the boxing skills that they've learned. Toney wants them to come at him, considering that he is no longer able to bounce around the ring and use foot movement like he did in his early years. So, like an over-sized spider, Toney needs for his opponents to come to him, and thrives on standing there, not having to “hustle.” Clearly, it's a plan that has worked for him in the past nine years, as he's only lost once during that time. Although, to be honest, he hasn't faced a pure boxer during all that time, with John Ruiz coming the closest, which gives you an idea of the kind of fighters Toney has faced during that time.
See, the thing is, all these bigger fighters think they can bully Toney around, just because they are naturally bigger than him. Yet, what they are forgetting is he is big, too, and if a larger figher is foolish enough to attempt to fight Toney on the inside, thus giving up his own advantage, then even if Toney is somewhat fat, he knows how to use it, anyway. However, if they use their reach, height, and their athleticism to run around the ring, and force Toney to move and come to them, that might take it's toll on his body, and tire him out. That tactic, in my opinion, is better then letting Toney just lay on the ropes, basically immobile, other than upper body and head movements, and making his opponent miss punch after punch, looking bad. Hey, maybe it won’t, James Toney is a “boxing God” freak of nature, because he thrives on pissing people off so they disrespect him and try to come at him. If Hasim Rahman is looking to win the fight I believe that is his best option. If he is looking to make a statement and that feud they have is really real, then my prediction is he won’t, and that will play right into Toney’s hands.
Rahman’s power is overrated, in the sense that, yes, he does have some, but it's not as deadly as advertised. Lennox Lewis stuck his chin out and let his guard down for the one shot that had Rahman’s all in it. James Toney will not do that, so Hasim Rahman should look for winning rounds and tiring the man out, rather then coming in there to prove a point. Like I said, I still may be wrong because both guys may know all this and prepare contingencies, but once that bell rings, I imagine all planning goes out the window and the fight takes its normal natural pace because they get tired and start acting on instinct. The question is, will the instinct they build up in training make them act correctly in the ring.
Lamon Brewster vs. Sergei Lyakhovich
My Pick: Sergei Lyakhovich
I know the first instinct people will have is “oh yeah, Slava picked the white Euro guy,” but, hey, that reaction is natural, I guess. In any case, rather then defend my decision, I will explain what I think Brewster has to do to win this.
Lamon Brewster does carry potentially great power, but not exactly the correct boxing vehicle to deliver it, however. Sure, in a street fight, picking against him would be funny, but this is a boxing match and I think Lyakhovich will try to realize that difference. One this is clear, Brewster is outboxable, and no matter what people say, he has been made to look foolish in instances by Kali Meehan, Clifford Ettiene, Charles Shufford, and, of course, Wladimir Klitschko, who unloaded a ghastly amount of punches in his fight against Brewster, all vicious head shots, that made him look like a human punching bag. Nevertheless, Brewster survived and won the bout, but absorbing that kind of punishment can't be good for his future health, in my opinion. In Brewster's last fight against Krasniqui, he was also not doing well up to the knockout, getting outworked, yet Brewster won that fight, too, stopping a weary Krasniqi in the 9th round. This only leaves the Golota fight, but again, Golota has been embarrassed so many times it's just not funny.
I know this may seem like Brewster bashing but it’s the way I see this guy fight. This does not excuse Lyakhovich, either, who gets lazy and complacent in the ring as well. Against Friday Ahunanya, while clearly winning, Lyakhovich got caught by a huge shot late in the fight and to be perfectly frank, it was some silly haymaker, he should have seen and avoided. Same seemed to go for Guinn, who caught him at times in their fight.
From my perspective, Lamon Brewster’s power is much better than that of Ahunanya and Guinn, as well as his ability to carry some form of it late. In order to win, I think Brewster has to find an instance where Lyakhovich drops his mental guard, and then unload on him with one of Brewster's monstrous left hooks. The best way to do this, perhaps, is to do something similar to what he did against Krasniqui, and what some delusional fans believe he did against Klitschko; That is, attack the body. Against Guinn, although Lyakhovich won, he came in with a pot belly stomach and that may have very well played into his complacency in that fight, at times. I mean, it's smart in a sense cause if he is going all out and he knows he is out of shape' then he will just get tired and give up the tail end of the fight, but it is still a weakness.
I don’t believe with the Golota fight in retrospect, that Brewster can come in there and stop Lyakhovich early. It's possible, of course, mainly because it probably has not been tried against him, but I think his team will consider the Golota fight and make sure he is ready for an early bomb out attack like that. Brewster should mstill try to bum rush him, I feel, since even if it fails, it will likely make Lyakhovich nervous and that will take its toll on already poor stamina. Nevertheless, it all depends on how much Lyakhovich focuses on preparing for that possibility.
My last point I wish to make on the fight is, as always, there is a possibility there might be issues with judges and scoring. Lamon Brewster is the more marketable as a fighter, to be honest. He has some big KO’s, and has a powerful promoter. Lyakhovich just cannot compete with that. This may be an issue the judges keep in the back of their mind. Like it or not, against Meehan, I believe that is what happened, and whether people realize that or not, it's an advantage to Brewster, from my view of things.
My Heavyweight Picks
10.03.06 - By Izyaslav “Slava” Koza: Nowadays, prediction making has lost some of its luster because of the fact that writers, and critics, for the most part, can’t embed themselves in training camps. Take, for example, when Rustam Nugaev recently took out that tall drink of water called, Mora, sure there may have been some who predicted a 5th round TKO, yet probably not the reason for it. What I mean is, had there been somebody following Mora through training camp, they would see he was not prepared enough for the fight at that weight. This is really why I don’t see a sense in making hardcore, stick to your guns predictions, because there are just so many variables to consider that it doesn’t mean much (unless you put money on it) even if you are right.
For instance, though my official prediction was not posted in an article before the fight due to high traffic to the site, I did, in fact, pick Calzaghe to win by decision. However, the truth is, I thought the fight would be more competitive and since it was fought in Britain, where there might be issues with scoring from a purely statistical standpoint. So, although I picked Calzaghe to win, my prediction wasn’t really “correct,” from a reasoning standpoint.
To make my point, though, since it is for fun, and I do enjoy sounding important, I will make some predictions for the upcoming heavyweight fights. However, the twist I wanted to add to the story is that rather then telling you why I picked who and how to win, I will attempt to explain what the other guy has to do in my mind to come out on top. Even then, of course, that doesn’t put an exclamation point on it, but I thought it would seem interesting to approach predictions this way. So, without further ado, here goes:
TITLE FIGHTS
James Toney - Hasim Rahman
My Pick: James Toney
In order for Hasim Rahman to win this fight, he has to do one thing and that is, “run.” From my lookout, he has to get on his bike, as early as possible, much like Roy Jones did against Toney, and attempt to outbox the more skilled Toney from the outside, banking rounds, rather than looking to mix it up and ending up getting schooled. The problem is James Toney is not in shape and is also older than Rahman, which is a weakness yet to be exploited, I think. James Toney likes to piss the holy hell out of all his opponents, for many reasons, but most importantly, I think it's to get his opponents into a furious, get even mindset, where they're not thinking clearly, and forget all the boxing skills that they've learned. Toney wants them to come at him, considering that he is no longer able to bounce around the ring and use foot movement like he did in his early years. So, like an over-sized spider, Toney needs for his opponents to come to him, and thrives on standing there, not having to “hustle.” Clearly, it's a plan that has worked for him in the past nine years, as he's only lost once during that time. Although, to be honest, he hasn't faced a pure boxer during all that time, with John Ruiz coming the closest, which gives you an idea of the kind of fighters Toney has faced during that time.
See, the thing is, all these bigger fighters think they can bully Toney around, just because they are naturally bigger than him. Yet, what they are forgetting is he is big, too, and if a larger figher is foolish enough to attempt to fight Toney on the inside, thus giving up his own advantage, then even if Toney is somewhat fat, he knows how to use it, anyway. However, if they use their reach, height, and their athleticism to run around the ring, and force Toney to move and come to them, that might take it's toll on his body, and tire him out. That tactic, in my opinion, is better then letting Toney just lay on the ropes, basically immobile, other than upper body and head movements, and making his opponent miss punch after punch, looking bad. Hey, maybe it won’t, James Toney is a “boxing God” freak of nature, because he thrives on pissing people off so they disrespect him and try to come at him. If Hasim Rahman is looking to win the fight I believe that is his best option. If he is looking to make a statement and that feud they have is really real, then my prediction is he won’t, and that will play right into Toney’s hands.
Rahman’s power is overrated, in the sense that, yes, he does have some, but it's not as deadly as advertised. Lennox Lewis stuck his chin out and let his guard down for the one shot that had Rahman’s all in it. James Toney will not do that, so Hasim Rahman should look for winning rounds and tiring the man out, rather then coming in there to prove a point. Like I said, I still may be wrong because both guys may know all this and prepare contingencies, but once that bell rings, I imagine all planning goes out the window and the fight takes its normal natural pace because they get tired and start acting on instinct. The question is, will the instinct they build up in training make them act correctly in the ring.
Lamon Brewster vs. Sergei Lyakhovich
My Pick: Sergei Lyakhovich
I know the first instinct people will have is “oh yeah, Slava picked the white Euro guy,” but, hey, that reaction is natural, I guess. In any case, rather then defend my decision, I will explain what I think Brewster has to do to win this.
Lamon Brewster does carry potentially great power, but not exactly the correct boxing vehicle to deliver it, however. Sure, in a street fight, picking against him would be funny, but this is a boxing match and I think Lyakhovich will try to realize that difference. One this is clear, Brewster is outboxable, and no matter what people say, he has been made to look foolish in instances by Kali Meehan, Clifford Ettiene, Charles Shufford, and, of course, Wladimir Klitschko, who unloaded a ghastly amount of punches in his fight against Brewster, all vicious head shots, that made him look like a human punching bag. Nevertheless, Brewster survived and won the bout, but absorbing that kind of punishment can't be good for his future health, in my opinion. In Brewster's last fight against Krasniqui, he was also not doing well up to the knockout, getting outworked, yet Brewster won that fight, too, stopping a weary Krasniqi in the 9th round. This only leaves the Golota fight, but again, Golota has been embarrassed so many times it's just not funny.
I know this may seem like Brewster bashing but it’s the way I see this guy fight. This does not excuse Lyakhovich, either, who gets lazy and complacent in the ring as well. Against Friday Ahunanya, while clearly winning, Lyakhovich got caught by a huge shot late in the fight and to be perfectly frank, it was some silly haymaker, he should have seen and avoided. Same seemed to go for Guinn, who caught him at times in their fight.
From my perspective, Lamon Brewster’s power is much better than that of Ahunanya and Guinn, as well as his ability to carry some form of it late. In order to win, I think Brewster has to find an instance where Lyakhovich drops his mental guard, and then unload on him with one of Brewster's monstrous left hooks. The best way to do this, perhaps, is to do something similar to what he did against Krasniqui, and what some delusional fans believe he did against Klitschko; That is, attack the body. Against Guinn, although Lyakhovich won, he came in with a pot belly stomach and that may have very well played into his complacency in that fight, at times. I mean, it's smart in a sense cause if he is going all out and he knows he is out of shape' then he will just get tired and give up the tail end of the fight, but it is still a weakness.
I don’t believe with the Golota fight in retrospect, that Brewster can come in there and stop Lyakhovich early. It's possible, of course, mainly because it probably has not been tried against him, but I think his team will consider the Golota fight and make sure he is ready for an early bomb out attack like that. Brewster should mstill try to bum rush him, I feel, since even if it fails, it will likely make Lyakhovich nervous and that will take its toll on already poor stamina. Nevertheless, it all depends on how much Lyakhovich focuses on preparing for that possibility.
My last point I wish to make on the fight is, as always, there is a possibility there might be issues with judges and scoring. Lamon Brewster is the more marketable as a fighter, to be honest. He has some big KO’s, and has a powerful promoter. Lyakhovich just cannot compete with that. This may be an issue the judges keep in the back of their mind. Like it or not, against Meehan, I believe that is what happened, and whether people realize that or not, it's an advantage to Brewster, from my view of things.
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