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From my point of view, for nearly a decade every single Cotto fight has been decided by one thing alone - whether or not he can outgun his opponents. When they are about even he struggles heavily (Mosley, Clottey, Mayweather, Trout), and when he has been clearly outgunned he’s been stopped (Pacquiao, Margarito 1). Yes, Cotto can move very well, but his movement is offense minded, he uses it to get in position to land and punish his opponents until they break. However, against someone like Mayweather, he does get tagged frequently in the process.
Look at the opponents he has beaten, in particular, the ones he's struggled with. You can see that his weakness isn't a particular style, but the physical match-up. There are few style similarities between those 6 fighters he lost to or struggled with, they really cover the gamut of possible combinations: offense minded, defense minded, tall, short, high volume, low volume, very mobile, not so mobile, counter punchers, pressure fighters, you name it. The one thing they all had in common was that Cotto couldn’t overpower any of them. That's nearly a decade, 5 trainers, 3 weight classes, and every boxing style that any fighter can face, yet the pattern of deciding his fights still persists.
I agree that Canelo's weakness is mobile fighters, but even against someone as mobile as Lara he was still able to find his target, and I think Cotto will be a lot easier to get to. In other words, I believe Lara is a better pure boxer and more elusive than Cotto, and nothing came easy for Lara that night, so I don’t see Cotto having much success moving around for 12 rounds. What he could do better is create offense of his own, but then, the more offense minded he gets the more he falls into Canelo's wheelhouse. Which brings me back to my original point, If Cotto turns out to be the better conditioned and harder puncher of the two, I can definitely see him winning. If he isn't, it will be a long and bloody night for him.
Look at the opponents he has beaten, in particular, the ones he's struggled with. You can see that his weakness isn't a particular style, but the physical match-up. There are few style similarities between those 6 fighters he lost to or struggled with, they really cover the gamut of possible combinations: offense minded, defense minded, tall, short, high volume, low volume, very mobile, not so mobile, counter punchers, pressure fighters, you name it. The one thing they all had in common was that Cotto couldn’t overpower any of them. That's nearly a decade, 5 trainers, 3 weight classes, and every boxing style that any fighter can face, yet the pattern of deciding his fights still persists.
I agree that Canelo's weakness is mobile fighters, but even against someone as mobile as Lara he was still able to find his target, and I think Cotto will be a lot easier to get to. In other words, I believe Lara is a better pure boxer and more elusive than Cotto, and nothing came easy for Lara that night, so I don’t see Cotto having much success moving around for 12 rounds. What he could do better is create offense of his own, but then, the more offense minded he gets the more he falls into Canelo's wheelhouse. Which brings me back to my original point, If Cotto turns out to be the better conditioned and harder puncher of the two, I can definitely see him winning. If he isn't, it will be a long and bloody night for him.
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