Cotto should be able to capitalize on Canelo's weaknesses more than any other opponent, not named Mayweather, has. The fact that he is physically strong himself, can mix it up on the inside a bit and knows how to pull out should help him. Just use the jab to offset Canelo's rhythm, never allow Canelo to find proper footing and keep circling him. Canelo doesn't fight that well on the move. Also, I'd like to add that I see Canelo getting shaken up by Cotto's punches, especially more than he's ever been.
That said I'm gonna go with Canelo, it's his body punching that's swaying me. Also, it seems that Cotto's commitment to the body has become a thing of the past.
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