Luis Grajeda have a shot against Willie Nelson?

[dan_cov]

Just scoped this 6/1 underdog I don't know anything about Grajeda other than he looks a good puncher on paper, durable.
He has been in with Charlo, Harrak, Camacho Jr

I've seen Willie Nelson a few times & I am not impressed by him and think he has a very bad chin despite him not being stopped, yet. Anybody know anything about this Mexican cat and anyone give him a shot?

He has to at least have a punchers chance surely? Everytime I've seen Nelson hes hit the deck or been badly rocked & he doesn't recover well.


Also Boaudla a 12/1 underdog against Chudinov, are the bookies tripping?
The same Chudinov they are pushing heavily despite getting tooled by Patrick Mendy

What are your thoughts on these two fights? Bookies are taking a big risk I say

[johnm is...]

The first thought that came to mind when the odds opened at Willie Nelson -1500 and Grajeda +700 was "There's no way in hell Nelson should be -1500 vs. ANYONE, specifically not someone who can punch".

I still don't think he deserves to be that wide of a favorite, but I'm little unsure about whether or not he has a bad chin, or if it were a weight thing. Arroyo dropped him at 147. He hasn't, to my knowledge, been down since moving up to 154.

I think the value probably lies with Grajeda, but he has a punchers chance only.

Nothing special about Chudinov. Slow, come forward guy that is there to be hit. Problem is, Bouadla, despite having been in with better, can't really punch. He'll probably fight it closer than a 15/1 underdog, but I can't see him winning via KO/TKO. And if it goes to the cards, he's probably got no shot. Chudinov is pretty active, he'll get a lot of rounds (assuming it goes rounds) on activity.

[dan_cov]

Thanks John, the weight is a great point, he is huge even at light middle.
I recall he was badly shaken up against Cuello (small, moderate puncher) a fight or two back.
Gradeja is a big kid himself not that Nelson really uses his length and height very well.
Seems Gradeja was a pretty good amateur. Found 1 of his fights and he looks crude, very wild but he can definitely ****.
Like you said I just don't see Nelson being such a favourite against anybody who can punch his defense is bad & his chin is most certainly rather questionable to say the least.
I can not trust Nelsons chin to take the over 8.5

Chudinov vs Bouadla should go the distance and its in Russia so always going to be a tough ask. Chudinov is so slow and limited its ridiculous.

I feel its suckering me in. Might pull the trigger, hope for the best and take both with a quid or two on the draws as an attempted cover and hope for the best but not bet an amount I will miss. £20 split say
They may well both win but I still feel they've hugely overpriced both guys.

[dan_cov]