Why does Martinez have to be less than 100% for Cotto to win?

[4Corners]

Well the style match up doesn't favor him. Sergio looked less than spectacular against Murray last year. But if he looks more or less the same, Cotto gets full credit for beating him IMO.

Sergio gets NO CREDIT for beating Cotto no matter what though. Cotto is in a win-win situation. He wins, it's a huge win, a career defining type of win for him. He loses, he can still go down to 154 again and fight Canelo.

[NearHypnos]

Sergio is bigger than Cotto and healthy he will have movement on his side, but he isn't the type of fighter who imposes his physicality and size on his opponent. He prefers for you to come at him and pepper you with his jab, right hook, and straight left counters.

Cotto can jab from the outside and get inside Sergio's reach, other fighters less skilled than Cotto have done it. The issue he needs to watch, like always, the uppercut. Sergio drives them hard and fast and Cotto needs to be prepared for this.

Sergio's long left to the body is brutal for a guy who has stamina issues (as opposed to Serg whos the opposite). Martinez can crack and that vs BIG middle weights who have all admitted to being hurt by him (including murray). Martine also comes at you (He did vs P Will at times and took the fight to pavlik as well as Chavez on multiple occasions). The problem isnt Cotto chasing martinez its what happens once he catches him and Martinez starts throwing heavy leather. Martinez's chin is semi shaky vs BIG middle weights (yet he took big shots from Chavez, Murray and Pavlik) but not as shaky as Cotto's whos fighting the hardest puncher hes ever fought.

The thought is if Martinez has lost a huge step or cant come back remotely close to healthy is that he'll catch Martinez going back OR wear him out due to long layoff and inability to train his legs for the last year.

Martine's jab normally is too fast, too strong vs a guy who cuts and swells easy. Martinez is a good counter puncher but he's put on beatinga when he's the one initiating. Most people think as long as martine isnt completely gone that hes still too ferocious to be out fought for 12 rounds. There isnt a single fighter Sergio has fought who he hasnt completely broken down. Because he's a mover and fights "cute" people dont realize how punishing a fighter he is. Cotto's only chance is martinez NOT being 100%. Cotto only has a jab to offer for martinez... If martinez is unable to overcome it thats when he's dangerous because he will go into full attack mode and start pushing.

Quite frankly, Martinez would beat Cotto p4p prime for prime its not a weight thing its a him being a better fighter thing.

If Martinez is relatively healthy and the fight doesnt end by brutal KO expect Cotto to shell up ala Marg and Pac to survive. Cotto wont sell out and try to will his way out of the fire if its too much. He hasnt done that in years and Martinez is a kill or be killed type of guy. Its just a bad matchup for Cotto who doesnt do well vs SOUTHPAWS. Prior to the low blows Judah buzzed Cotto more than once and was giving him all kinds of hell.

I do give Cotto a big chance though because Martinez wont be in the type of shape to fight hard all 12 rounds and his legs likely wont be fully under him..and he could end up breaking his hand again..Not to mention the kind of hits hes been taking to the chin. Despite this Serg is still slightly favored under said conditions but Cotto COULD pull off an upset maybe even by stoppage! Martinez's physical condition MIGHT be that bad.

[El Malo.]

I just hope Martinez takes him out quick. Its going to be hard to watch Cotto take a beating that dude does not deserve to leave the sport in bad shape after all the work his put in.

[Grimgash]

While Sergio isn't great he's on a Cotto level. The thing is he's bigger and more active (if healthy). Cotto is not a great fighter, hence why I don't think he'd be a 100% Sergio.

[mathed]

....Sergio is going to seriously hurt Cotto, hurt him pretty bad.

[Motofan]

Sergio beats him at 65%, IMO.

I mean if Trout can virtually shut him out then he has no chance against Sergio.

I just can not for the life of me picture Cotto winning this fight. I'm expecting Cotto to get absolutely blasted senseless from start too finish.

Sorry and I hope I am wrong but I think this a grotesque mismatch.

Agreed. I honestly am in awe that this fight is even being discussed. I like Cotto and am fair in my assessments of fights (like picking Bradley to outpoint Marquez) but I see no possible way that Cotto even makes this competitive. Cotto has struggled with lefties, is small as hell at the weight, is slower of both hand and feet, is at a power disadvantage, has shown to be chinney, is fighting a guy who is great at hiding his body, and isn't 1-2 in his last three fights. Cotto wants the money and at least a shot at history. But make no mistake. He's done. A new trainer and a win over a nobody doesn't change facts. I am and always will be a Cotto fan but he is getting deconstructed here and in a brutal way.

[Pain~Lucy]

I believe in Cotto!

[TBear]

Cotto has the skills still but look at the style matchup. The last southpaw counterpuncher Cotto fought was Trout. It is very safe to say that Martinez is a lot better than Trout.

[Earl-Hickey]

people saying "he didn't look good against martin murray"

Murray is 6 foot tall and hits the ring at over 175lbs, he will be a super middleweight soon, cotto is a natural welterweight

i'd pick murray over cotto

[Earl-Hickey]

Cotto fans are among the most unrealistic in boxing.

Not 12 months ago he was getting schooled by the average trout. now suddenly he's going to go up in weight and beat martinez lol

he's getting williams'd in this fight