I told yall I was gonna post a breakdown of the way I see this fight playing out....as promised here's my 7 day theory
I expect Swift to have a slight weight advantage on fight night to go along with his height advantage.....the reach slightly favors Lucas though
Round 1 is a round you can mark down now....10-9 for Lucas.....Swift will lay back and see how sweet that candy mother****er is before he turn up the volume....Swift has to be mentally sharp for the first 3 or 4 rounds though using head movement....I expect Round 2 to be more of a fight....Lucas is a bully who uses rough house bully tactics but on this night he'll find out he's fighting a bigger stronger dude than those cats he's had his way with in previous fights.....Lucas will bring it to Swift hard in Round 2....this is the round this fight can be won or lost for Lucas imo.....Swift will be still trying to find his range at this time and like I said his mental sharpness has to be on point because Lucas will be be throwing that right hand with real bad intentions...if Swift is gonna get dropped in this fight it'll be in Round 2.....first 2 rounds will be Lucas rounds imo
Lucas full of confidence comes out breathing fire for Round 3 but after a nice solid talk from pops between rounds, Swift will begin to find his range with counter body shots....by now Swift will have the timing and a better understanding of Lucas's power and subtle speed.....he'll know when to plant and counter and when to take the lead.....Swift finds his rhythm in Round 3.....now it's a ****ing fight
Round 4 sees Lucas still confident but now young Swift is full of the same thing.....Lucas will see this and feel offended because that's how bullies think....so he'll start that rough **** but Swift will get dirty right back.....he won't back down and I can see Weeks making deductions against both fighters.....that's gonna really mess with the bully's psyche
Round 5 is when the BOOM comes down on a once confident but now frustrated Lucas....straight right hand to the body gets countered by a crisp Swift left hook....Lucas hits the canvas.....he'll rise but now he's frustrated, hurt and slowly having the confidence mentally beaten out of him
The entire second half of the fight belongs to Swift by him countering and making Lucas less confident.....Lucas seems like the type to rock out on his shield and he just might have to do that....Swift might run into a minor stumble in rounds 11 and 12 but not enough to stop what everybody will know is the obvious.....Swift by UD
I probably voted Swift by stoppage but I think Lucas will come in extraordinary shape and that's gonna help him fight to the finish line
Neither fighter throws the jab regularly which doesn't surprise me....I think Lamont's scared jab got him countered by some heavy shots from Lucas so Swift has to watch out and don't let Lucas out think him early on.....Swift will take that machine apart mentally and physically.....the job he does will get over shadowed though by Floyd dropping Nelo a few times.....
Finally, a sensible comment from a Garcia fan
I disagree wholeheartedly, but it at least shows a legit analysis
Here's my retort: Garcia has a much better chance of taking away Lucas' confidence early than late... First of all, he's a faster starter than Lucas, second of all, he tends to always fade late in any of his tougher fights, which this will be...
And why Garcia fans think he'll be able to survive Lucas' power is beyond me... He has to either go to Lucas' body, hurt him with power shots and turn him gun shy, or pull out some great defense he has yet to show... Unless that happens, its hard to imagine a 12 round fight that Garcia still wins (I guess, 4th option would be to jab and run, though unlikely)... I'm not saying Matthysse stops him with 1 shot, but a few combinations later, how does he survive it?
The main reason I think Garcia has a great chance is because Matthysse jumps forward really wide. It's very hard to throw combinations when he does that.
Most of the guys that fight Matthysse are already scared. When Lucas comes forward they just back up and give too much respect. Garcia will/needs to stay in the pocket set traps and catch Matthysse coming in. Yes it's playing with fire but that what you gotta do to win.
I can see Garcia landing a clean left hook while LM jumping in...and putting him to sleep.
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