Are people over estimating Canelo vs Mayweather's PPV buy potential

**Augustane** · 06-09-2013, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by croz

Cotto vs Trout pulled 1.4 million viewers on Showtime. Keep in mind at the time that was considered a run of the mill warm up fight before the Canelo fight.

After Trout won Canelo took the fight with Trout. This time they hyped the holy **** out of it. It was treated as a super fight in legit stadium. It earned over 1 million viewers on Showtime. Less than the Cotto fight. Both are very, very good numbers for Showtime, but clearly Cotto drew more interest. 400k is a huge difference for a network like Showtime.

Cotto was a bonified PPV star who could pull 300k for a typical fight and 600k for a big fight aka Margarito. Canelo's greatest exposure came from being on the under card to Mayweather-Cotto.

On paper it looks like Cotto is the bigger star, and his fight with Mayweather earned 1.5 million buys. Now, I'm wondering what exactly is there to make people think Canelo can top this when clearly he hasn't even reached the same level of stardom as Cotto?

It's still one of the largest mega-fights out there right now.

I predict 1.3 million.

**Jloro** · 06-09-2013, 08:57 PM

10 million ppv buys GUARANTEED.

Hey look that Irish looking mexican is fighting that annoying undefeated guy we never watched before, lets all buy it!

**Canelo Phresh** · 06-09-2013, 08:58 PM

It'll recoup their losses for the guererro fight and then some.

**croz** · 06-09-2013, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by Mannie Phresh

It'll recoup their losses for the guererro fight and then some.

You don't seriously believe that do you? No network is dumb enough to make a deal that requires a 1.2 million PPV buy average to break even. That would be an absolutely ****ing ******ed deal to make.

Showtime themselves called it ridiculous. It's one thing to come out and deny it for the sake of hiding the shame of failure, but to come out and call the very concept of making such a deal ****** strongly suggests they wouldn't do such a thing to begin with.

**.:: JSFD26 ::.** · 06-09-2013, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by croz

Cotto vs Trout pulled 1.4 million viewers on Showtime. Keep in mind at the time that was considered a run of the mill warm up fight before the Canelo fight.

After Trout won Canelo took the fight with Trout. This time they hyped the holy **** out of it. It was treated as a super fight in legit stadium. It earned over 1 million viewers on Showtime. Less than the Cotto fight. Both are very, very good numbers for Showtime, but clearly Cotto drew more interest. 400k is a huge difference for a network like Showtime.

Cotto was a bonified PPV star who could pull 300k for a typical fight and 600k for a big fight aka Margarito. Canelo's greatest exposure came from being on the under card to Mayweather-Cotto.

On paper it looks like Cotto is the bigger star, and his fight with Mayweather earned 1.5 million buys. Now, I'm wondering what exactly is there to make people think Canelo can top this when clearly he hasn't even reached the same level of stardom as Cotto?

Honestly, Canelo should have just fought Cotto anyway before taking on Mayweather.

What you're saying actually makes sense. Im sure as hell not expecting 2M like people are claiming. No one that I've talked to knows who Canelo is, they didn't know Guerrero either.

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**Mike D** · 06-09-2013, 09:22 PM

You know what? As much as people hate to hear it, especially around these parts, Manny/Floyd would still blow away Canelo/Floyd in PPV sales.

Why?

Because the casual boxing fans who only buy PPVs involving either Floyd or Manny (and lets be real, this type of fan makes up the majority of the PPV buyers) still don't even know who Canelo Alvarez is unless they're of Mexican descent.

That said I still expect this fight to outdraw the Guererro fight by a wide margin...but will it be enough to make up for the supposed 12 mil lost by Showtime? I have my doubts on that. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

**Public_Enemy** · 06-09-2013, 09:27 PM

I'm thinking the fight will do 1.3-1.5 million buys. The more people that view this as a competitive fight, the better it will do obviously. I think that will be a major theme in the promo. They also need to put good fights on the undercard. Matthysse vs. Garcia won't be on there. But I expect to see Mares and Santa Cruz. I think Broner would be a great idea but I doubt it happens.

**JaYDeuce11** · 06-09-2013, 09:32 PM

Goldenboy and the regular-day boxing fans are def over estimating the potential PPV buys on this...i don't think it will surpass De La Hoya - Mayweather but maybe do 1.7 mill
Canelo doesn't have that connection yet to the mainstream/youtube generation, just needs that big win and maybe beating Floyd would put him there

**croz** · 06-09-2013, 09:33 PM

You know, there are actually three major players here that do benefit this fight more than the Cotto fight.

1. They now have advertising routes through CBS. If they can get May-Ghost 1 million buys it could do wonders for Canelo.
2. A hungry Mexican market that will kick up a fervour over this.
3. Canelo's recent Under Armour deal has increased his exposure following the Trout fight.

Honestly, when I was trend watching for the Cotto-Mayweather fight there wasn't much movement online about it until coming close to the fight. Moments after Canelo-Mayweather was announced it was already one of the most searched topic on Yahoo and Google, as well as Twitter trends in the US.

Are people over estimating Canelo vs Mayweather's PPV buy potential