Is there such thing as a Lucky Punch?

[NearHypnos]

I appreciate a response with an actual analysis/reasoning...but Marquez might as well have not done anything, Pacquaio was countering and out landing him all night, in hindsight it was clear Marquez only planned on looking for a place to put his right.. I dont believe Pacquaio was trying do anything significant with his right, What i saw was that he was feinting and doubling up on the jab looking to set up something with the left...and he saw that Marquez didnt fall for that which is why i believe he didnt try to throw any punch after he rushed in, what i see is that he tried to feint recognized it didnt work, kept moving forward with his guard completely down...he was ****** ..JMM saw this, and threw a textbook overhand right...Marquez didnt do anything to make Pacquaio miss...it was a result of circumstance and Marquez was fortunate it played out exactly like that.

I am not saying it was 100% lucky shot, im saying that luck was definitely a variable in this KO occurring.

I disagree with it being luck. The thing is, Pac could not have avoided it. He gave himself no room avoid it. He couldnt slip to the left (ropes), and Marquez had turned his body to Pac's right..which means even if Pac had thrown the left, he was eating that right hand full out.


Look at how Marquez shuffled his feet right before...Notice he's kind of leading Pac to his right. Notice how he dips to the left and got ready to throw the right? He saw a feint coming, Pac didnt commit the first time but he did the second time. Notice how Marquez immediately got his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's as soon as Pac stepped in? It was a wrap. Pac fell for the trap even though Marquez gave it away a brief second before. They both showed their hand before playing it. Beautiful counter, really.

[KingKhan1]

Thank you for providing some type of reasoning!

But, i still disagree..

Firstly, even manny and Freddie have said it was a great punch. Marquez sacrificed a lot of speed last night to gain that one punch power. In the previous fights manny always landed more, but marquez was more competitive stat wise. He found out in round 3 that he could hurt manny and kept trying to set him up. This is why in the three rounds after first knockdown he got hit flush over and over by manny. Damn marquez was zeroing in with that right hand, and manny took no notice! Any boxer that gets ko'd like manny did has a part to play in it, but marquez trained to have that kind of power, and his strategy was to make manny pay more heavily for his mistakes. Marquez body work was genius and manny became over zealous after breaking marquez nose. He should have known a broken nose can't stop marquez, damn three knockdowns in a round couldn't halt this fella. I seriously think PAC fans need to accept that marqez is the superior man, end of.

[Nekronicle]

There are "lucky" shots/punches in boxing...but that is 100% part of the sport. So really when you get down to it, it isn't really lucky at all.

You know how in basketball -- dudes are forced into wild shots when the shot clock is about to expire, and sometimes have to put up an attempt without even clearly seeing the basket? Well these guys practice for years and years, and it's safe to say they have a general idea where the basket is (lol). Just like a boxer has a general idea where the chin/head is when he's throwing a blind shot. Or how about in the NFL when a quarterback is pressured by blitzing linebackers and makes a decision to blindly throw to a spot where he expects (or hopes) one of his receivers will be? Brett Favre is a prime example of taking risks like this. Is it luck? It may appear to be, and yeah luck does play a factor to a degree, but at the end of the day these guys have practiced the art & sport for their entire life.

So in short, no, I don't think there is lucky punches in boxing. When Danny Garcia floored Khan with a completely blind shot, he had a general idea of where Amir's head was. Yeah maybe 7 out of 10 times he misses with that shot, but for the one that does make contact...well you saw what happened to Khan.

excellent and sound reasoning.

This, foreman -moorer was not even close to a lucky punch. That is one of those rumors that people parrot over and over without even have watched the fight recently. It wasnt even a single shot, it was a jab straight right combo and it was done twice in a row, the first one stunned mooorer and the second one put him down. Secondly, foreman landed that same combo in the 8th round and hurt moorer a bit with it as well. Third, moorer was fighting a very bad fight strategically by squaring up with foreman and staying close rather than using movement the entire time. Thats what got him KTFO.

And how can anyone try to call JMM v Pac a lucky punch when JMM is a damn counter puncher and one of the best of the last 25 years. He dropped Pac with the same over hand right earlier in the fight and had success with it all night.

Tarver - Roy I dont even consider a fully lucky punch. Tarver was saying before the fight how you beat speed was to get inside close which he did all first fight and how did he land that counter? It was done close on the inside. So his strategy got him there in the spot to land that counter. It was a once in a life time perfect shot so there may be some luck to it but its not 100 percent luck either. Hed never land something like that from the outside because roy would see it and his reflexes would let him move. In close, roy never seen it coming.

lol, yeah...immediately prior to that Foreman threw a jab, straight right, and a hook all slow as hell and missing wildly...and he did throw a jab, straight ..without KOing Moorer, but I dont think he was stunned because what did Moorer do immediately after? he shook it off, put his guard back up and walked right into a jab/right combo again....I call LUCK on this because 1.) Foreman is 45 years old and looked pathetic virtually that entire fight, 2.) I call this the ultimate example of a lucky punch for the exact reason you mentioned, he threw that exact same combo, and looked like it was with the exact same power...first time didnt KO him, but second time it did....Foreman was lucky Moorer didnt do anything to correct for that punch, and lucky that at that particular moment, Moorers neck/jaw was loose enough to cause a knockout.

And if you read my first post, i compared the first Knockdown to the one in which he got KO'd.....

and dude, i explicitly said i dont define a lucky punch as 100% luck...

I disagree with it being luck. The thing is, Pac could not have avoided it. He gave himself no room avoid it. He couldnt slip to the left (ropes), and Marquez had turned his body to Pac's right..which means even if Pac had thrown the left, he was eating that right hand full out.


Look at how Marquez shuffled his feet right before...Notice he's kind of leading Pac to his right. Notice how he dips to the left and got ready to throw the right? He saw a feint coming, Pac didnt commit the first time but he did the second time. Notice how Marquez immediately got his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's as soon as Pac stepped in? It was a wrap. Pac fell for the trap even though Marquez gave it away a brief second before. They both showed their hand before playing it. Beautiful counter, really.

Thanks for the only legit analysis on how you saw it as not being lucky.

And excellent points and sound reasoning. i definitely see what you see and what are you explaining, i dont disagree with that analysis...... my only issue is that in regards to luck...is that Marquez attempted that same punch at the 10 second mark of that round and failed...and i was curious as to why he even attempted it, i mean he threw that same punch when Pacquaio might as well have been a mile away...10 seconds later he did the same thing, and luckely for Marquez, Pacquaio was rushing forward and ate a hand that i think Marquez would of thrown anyways if Paquaio didnt keep moving forward after he realized JMM didnt fall for the feint...which is why i call Luck.

Firstly, even manny and Freddie have said it was a great punch. Marquez sacrificed a lot of speed last night to gain that one punch power. In the previous fights manny always landed more, but marquez was more competitive stat wise. He found out in round 3 that he could hurt manny and kept trying to set him up. This is why in the three rounds after first knockdown he got hit flush over and over by manny. Damn marquez was zeroing in with that right hand, and manny took no notice! Any boxer that gets ko'd like manny did has a part to play in it, but marquez trained to have that kind of power, and his strategy was to make manny pay more heavily for his mistakes. Marquez body work was genius and manny became over zealous after breaking marquez nose. He should have known a broken nose can't stop marquez, damn three knockdowns in a round couldn't halt this fella. I seriously think PAC fans need to accept that marqez is the superior man, end of.

It was a great punch, and it is very clear JMM gave up a LOT for the power advantage of one punch. and i dunno what fight you were watching after Round 3, but for me it looked like Pacman found a home for his left that busted open Marquez's face.

[Reloaded]

I see it as luck based on what i wrote in the first post....he didnt set anything up! Pacquiao did most of the work that ended with him on the canvas...he went in with his guard completely down, and ran right into a overhand right. Few seconds before that (10 second mark), Marquez tried to land that same punch, and missed wildly....then he got lucky 10 seconds later when Pacquaio ran right into that same punch.

Your a dummy kid , a dead set dummy , they train their whole life to react on instinct , it might be a lucky punch to a butt hurt little kid crying into his monitor , but in the real world JMM trained his whole life to land that punch , and when all things aligned in the right instant , BOOM , its wasnt luck that capitalised on that instant in time , if you were to ever give everything , all you had to give to your passion , believe me it wont be luck that makes things happen . people that think that way are whiny losers looking for fox holes .

[Nekronicle]

Your a dummy kid , a dead set dummy , they train their whole life to react on instinct , it might be a lucky punch to a butt hurt little kid crying into his monitor , but in the real world JMM trained his whole life to land that punch , and when all things aligned in the right instant , BOOM , its wasnt luck that capitalised on that instant in time , if you were to ever give everything , all you had to give to your passion , believe me it wont be luck that makes things happen . people that think that way are whiny losers looking for fox holes .

lol wow, already resorting to petty insults......

Do you even know if I like Pacquiao or not? Is there anywhere in this thread in which I discredit or even insult JMM and his skill?? I explicitly pointed out examples of Marquez showing superior boxing skill......I knew people would be arguing if this was a lucky punch or not, which lead me to question my definition of a lucky punch....and since the majority of people i know, dont know jack about boxing, they resort to exactly what you are doing..petty insults... there has literally been like two responses in this entire thread that I respect..yours is definitely not one of them.

Why dont you step back, get educated, and come back with a sound argument like NearHypnos or Mike D


also,

“Is it su****ious the way (Pacquiao) has gained so much lean muscle mass while retaining and even seemingly improving his power and speed? Yes,” Conte says. “It is highly su****ious. , to the standard urine testing that, in my opinion, is worthless.


lol, what do you think about JMM in this regard?? anything su****ious there?

[Reloaded]

lol wow, already resorting to petty insults......

Do you even know if I like Pacquiao or not? Is there anywhere in this thread in which I discredit or even insult JMM and his skill?? I explicitly pointed out examples of Marquez showing superior boxing skill......I knew people would be arguing if this was a lucky punch or not, which lead me to question my definition of a lucky punch....and since the majority of people i know, dont know jack about boxing, they resort to exactly what you are doing..petty insults... there has literally been like two responses in this entire thread that I respect..yours is definitely not one of them.

Why dont you step back, get educated, and come back with a sound argument like NearHypnos or Mike D


also,

“Is it su****ious the way (Pacquiao) has gained so much lean muscle mass while retaining and even seemingly improving his power and speed? Yes,” Conte says. “It is highly su****ious. , to the standard urine testing that, in my opinion, is worthless.


lol, what do you think about JMM in this regard?? anything su****ious there?

Your an idiot , it was a great right hand by a great fighter nothing lucky about it , just a life of work .

Juan said lets go get tested Manny , any test , and Manny said dont worry about , thats the difference kid Manny is the only fighter to run fromn PEDS testing , if Juan had of said no test Im not fighting just like Manny did , then it would be different , Manny is the one with no honor and his kid fans are scum fans that are serial flip floppers towards whatever ball of Mannys they sucking at the time .

[fceeviper]

Ha! Luck?! EF No!

That counter punch was the product of hard work and building his craft over his HOF 20yr career.

It's called a counter punch, not a lucky punch.


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[Nekronicle]

Your an idiot , it was a great right hand by a great fighter nothing lucky about it , just a life of work .

Juan said lets go get tested Manny , any test , and Manny said dont worry about , thats the difference kid Manny is the only fighter to run fromn PEDS testing , if Juan had of said no test Im not fighting just like Manny did , then it would be different , Manny is the one with no honor and his kid fans are scum fans that are serial flip floppers towards whatever ball of Mannys they sucking at the time .

Ha! Luck?! EF No!

That counter punch was the product of hard work and building his craft over his HOF 20yr career.

It's called a counter punch, not a lucky punch.


Posted from Boxingscene.com App for Android

since it appears that less than one percent of the contributors on boxing scene actually read the post, instead of making assumptions based on the thread title, ill repeat....


If you don't think it was a lucky punch, because you don't believe in lucky punches in boxing...then explain in detail please how you see it.

If you DO believe in lucky punches ,but dont believe Pac/Marquez was a lucky punch, then tell me your definition of lucky, and give me an example of it.

[SlySlickSmooth]

It's sweet science. Manny's a southpaw.

Manny usually has that rhythm of a jab... jab jab, left. Just watch that last 30 seconds you'll see it. Marquez caught his rhythm. Manny shoots the right jab, marquez shifts his body lower and to the left although he gets graced by it, its a blow easily shaken, and throws all his body weight into a counter "almost over hand" right.

Not to mention, look at the footwork of Pac how he leaps. He leaps hands down with a jab he just can't get away with. He's almost got on one and a half foot if not one foot, as well as his right foot bumping into Marquez's planted feet.

That shot was great and shows why straight lefts/rights are amazing tools in Conventional vs Orthodox

ALSO: look at the KO from the topview looking down at the fighters. Marquez ever so slightly moves his lead foot to the left, putting it infront of Pacs lead foot, as Pac moved his lead forward to jab forward.

[Mr. Mark]

I don't believe in luck and I don't believe in lucky punches (Although, there are things called Blessings and Gods Will).

When you use your free will to make a conscious decision to do something, there's always going to be an end result, win or lose.

With that said, Marquez won the 4th bout, fair and square.

However, does a win or a loss make you better or worse than your opponent? No.

Both Sugar Ray Robinson and Muhammad Ali have lost and have been beaten to a pulp and are still regarded as the greatest boxers of All-Time. Just because Jake Lamotta knocked Robinson out the box doesn't make him better P4P. And just because Frazier smoked Ali doesn't make him greater P4P either.

Therefore, we need to evaluate everything in its entirety before forming a fair and logical conclusion about ANYTHING.