Hernandez I think has a chance because though he isn't lightning quick he has decent boxing skills and good power while Berto who has tons of ability has poor boxing skills and awful timing. Berto is hit very easily for someone who has a significant speed advantage over every opponent he faces and he may possibly be chinny due to the fact that he was rocked by the two best fighters he faced(Collazo, Quintana). Its hard to say not about his beard but if he takes some flush shots from Hernandez that will telling.
Most people will just jump up and down too say "Berto's fighting a bum!", but truth is Hernandez is a decent fighter. I don't see him beating Berto, but the bigger, hard hitting Hernandez can keep it interesting. Berto fought well backwards vs Estrada, so I do think your underestimating Berto skill a bit, and as for Berto's chin, I don't think he's chinny, because Collazo just got him off balence, and Quintana rabbit punched and pushed, but he is tender chinned, and it's clearly not one of his strong points. He's definitely K.O.able.
Freddy "RIEL" Hernandez is going to war for this one, hasn't lost in 5 years and his last 3-4 fights has looked very impressive, would not be surprised if he pulls the upset, Berto can be hit easily and Freddy has power for sure.
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