Fight Odds: Floyd by KO is +350...Shane by KO is +650

[And Still]

So the betting odds are that Floyd is MORE likely to KO Shane than Shane is to stop Floyd?

[deliveryman]

So the betting odds are that Floyd is MORE likely to KO Shane than Shane is to stop Floyd?

Yes, because Floyd is favored to win the fight, thus he has a lot more "KO Equity" when it comes to laying odds. Pot odds, and equity in poker is measured in much the same way.

For example.

Say Floyd wins 80% of the time they fight, and Mosley 20%.

Of the 80% of the time Floyd wins, he KO's Shane only 20% of the time. Say of the 20% that Mosley wins, he KO's Floyd 50% of the time.

In 100 fights:

Floyd would have 16 wins by KO (despite having a 20% KO percentage)

Shane would have 10 wins by KO (while having a 50% KO pecentage)

Hence, it is more likely for Floyd to win by KO.

[johnm is...]

Yes, because Shane is less likely to win the fight.

Bingo.....

[Bhopreign]

Yes, because Shane is less likely to win the fight.

Thats not the case for every fight though.

[infamous larryx]

Yep.................

[johnm is...]

Thats not the case for every fight though.

It is for every fight with lopsided odds like this one.

[deliveryman]

Thats not the case for every fight though.

I edited my first post, please read:

Yes, because Floyd is favored to win the fight, thus he has a lot more "KO Equity" when it comes to laying odds. Pot odds, and equity in poker is measured in much the same way.

For example.

Say Floyd wins 80% of the time they fight, and Mosley 20%.

Of the 80% of the time Floyd wins, he KO's Shane only 20% of the time. Say of the 20% that Mosley wins, he KO's Floyd 50% of the time.

In 100 fights:

Floyd would have 16 wins by KO (despite having a 20% KO percentage)

Shane would have 10 wins by KO (while having a 50% KO pecentage)

Hence, it is more likely for Floyd to win by KO.

[ИATAS]

Yes, because Floyd is favored to win the fight, thus he has a lot more "KO Equity" when it comes to laying odds. Pot odds, and equity in poker is measured in much the same way.

For example.

Say Floyd wins 80% of the time they fight, and Mosley 20%.

Of the 80% of the time Floyd wins, he KO's Shane only 20% of the time. Say of the 20% that Mosley wins, he KO's Floyd 50% of the time.

In 100 fights:

Floyd would have 16 wins by KO (despite having a 20% KO percentage)

Shane would have 10 wins by KO (while having a 50% KO pecentage)

Hence, it is more likely for Floyd to win by KO.

thanks

___________

[El_Cazador]

Yes, because Floyd is favored to win the fight, thus he has a lot more "KO Equity" when it comes to laying odds. Pot odds, and equity in poker is measured in much the same way.

For example.

Say Floyd wins 80% of the time they fight, and Mosley 20%.

Of the 80% of the time Floyd wins, he KO's Shane only 20% of the time. Say of the 20% that Mosley wins, he KO's Floyd 50% of the time.

In 100 fights:

Floyd would have 16 wins by KO (despite having a 20% KO percentage)

Shane would have 10 wins by KO (while having a 50% KO pecentage)

Hence, it is more likely for Floyd to win by KO.

Good stuff!!!!!!!

[Bhopreign]

It is for every fight with lopsided odds like this one.

Calderon/Mayol comes to mind.