Mayweather vs Hatton a "serious" compubox analysis
compubox stats taken from Hatton's and Mayweather's last 3 fights before their 2007 showdown.
The Stats:
In Hatton's last 3 fights before the Mayweather bout he's thrown an average of 61 punches per round and landed an average of 21.7 punches per round; at a 35.3% connect percentage.
Hatton's opponents landed at connect percentage of 29%.
In Floyd's last 3 fights before the Hatton bout he's thrown an average of 37 punches a round and landed an average of 16.5 punches per round; at a 44.3% connect percentage.
Floyd's opponents landed at a connect percentage of 17%.
The Math
So here's the math... to figure out how many average punches per round fighter A would land on fighter B we simply multiply the average number of punches thrown per round of fighter A by the connect percentage of fighter B's opponents and average that with fighter A's average punches landed per round.
Here's the number crunch folks:
In a heads up match up, Floyd would land [(37 x 29%) + 16.5]/2 = 13.61 punches per round on Hatton, and Hatton would land [(61 x 17% ) + 21.7]/2 = 16.03 punches per round on Floyd.
Conclusion of the Analysis:
Even though Floyd is more accurate by 9% and his defense is better by 12%, Hatton's high workrate overcomes the deficit and Hatton manages to outland Floyd by 2.42 punches per round.
Prediction:
Considering Hatton will outland and outpunch Floyd based on this analysis, I predict that Hatton will win a SD or close UD.
NOW HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THEY FOUGHT
Mayweather outlanded Hatton in almost every round and stopped him in the 10th.
Conclusion : Do not predict fights with punch stats.
Pure unadulterated ownage using TS very own criteria.
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