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ILLMATIK - much respect.
Ok, since no one can answer my question regarding the line movement for me... Here is my rationale.
1. Size
Cotto is the bigger man. We all know and knew this. Don't be fooled by the weigh-in when they will both be around 145. Cotto will balloon back up to around 156-158 on fight night, whereas Pac will be happy to make 150. Pac has been sparring with undefeated prospect Shawn Porter and taking his hits, apparently, with gusto. And that dude is a middleweight. But don't be fooled either, into thinking that means he can hit as hard as Cotto does. Cotto has a seriously legit jab that he both leads and steps in with, and his left hook to the body is arguably the best in the sport. Manny being a southpaw only grants him more opportunities to get hit by this.
Remember also that Cotto took 11 rounds of concrete to the face against Margarito. It is only logical to think that he can take 12 rounds of (a much smaller) Manny.
2. Hubris
This could all be smoke and mirrors, but I subscribe to Occam's Razor when it comes to wagering and it seems to me like there is crazy trouble in the Pacquiao camp. Typhoons and obsessive fans stopping Manny from jogging, fist fights between his advisor Michael Koncz and his fitness guy Alex Ariza, rifts with Freddie Roach, can't all be exaggeration. Just doesn't seem like Manny is taking the threat that Cotto poses seriously, even though Miguel is at this stage in his career, the most legit threat he has faced.
3. Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton
I'm not buying into this. Freddie Roach has admitted on several occasions that he told Manny to jump on Oscar because he noticed the IV marks on his arms that indicated he was severely drained on the night of the fight. Add to this that ODH was far past his prime and the victory is less impressive than the public believes.
Ricky Hatton was overrated for his entire career. But he was good. And just like Roy Jones Jr. he was never the same after being knocked out. Floyd Mayweather did a number on Hatton, destroyed his aura of invincibility and he was never the even the [merely] good fighter that he was before. He then made the ****** choice of hiring Floyd Sr. who tried to recreate him as a new fighter 2 months before his clash with Manny, without dealing with the obvious susceptibility to the lead hook.
These two resounding victories - while very, very impressive - have led the public to give way, way too much credit to Manny. Don't get me wrong, he is an all-time great now and a pound for pound monster. But due to those two wins I do not believe he deserves to be a sub -200 favorite over an elite and legit welterweight like Miguel Cotto.
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Everyone seems to down on Cotto because he a) lost to Margarito, b) didn't knock Josh Clottey out. Well, we know there is a high chance that Margo beat Cotto with loaded gloves in their bout, and as for the Clottey performance. I have serious difficulty with anyone who didn't consider that impressive. In fact, if anything, how he won the Clottey fight is essentially the reason people wagering on Pac should be afraid.
Cotto, unlike Pacquiao, has the ability to switch strategies, mid-fight. Pacquiao has one style. He is AWESOME at it. But if it doesn't work, then what? He decimated Marquez in their first fight by going forward, bobbing, and throwing lots and lots of punches. But when it didn't work he didn't know what to do and as we all know, after knocking Marquez down 3 times AND breaking his nose in the first round, he went on to only DRAW that fight. Similarly, while Cotto can, Pacquiao cannot fight off of the back foot. So what happens when Cotto weathers the early Pac storm and begins to move in on him? Cotto was able to score points and win rounds while Margarito basically walked through his shots because he can fight going backwards. Pacquiao can in no way do this.
Cotto has flat out brilliant ring IQ. Cotto knocked Clottey down in the first round, don't forget. But after that he began to run and it was much less impressive. Why? Because it was pretty much the only way he could win the fight. That's right he had a HUGE gash above his right eye. He had to make sure he took as little punishment there as possible, not for fear of being knocked out, but for fear of medics ending the fight prematurely. That's why he appeared gassed in the later rounds.
The fights that Cotto had with Shane Mosely and Zab Judah show that if nothing else he is a fighter who knows how to nullify speed. Judah, in particular, was extremely fast, and once Cotto adjusted to it, he crushed him. Shane too. And being fast is Manny's prime quality. No one is suggesting that Cotto is as fast as Manny. That is outrageous. But what Cotto does have is an ability to negate the speed advantage, not entirely, but enough to stem the tide and make it at the very least manageable.
Ok, I've gotta run now, but I hope what I wrote helps. BOL, guys, but I really don't think Pacquiao is winning this fight at all. My only concern is that Manny jumps on Cotto early and decks him within 2 rounds, which lets be honest, is possible since Cotto is a notoriously slow starter.
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I'm just going to follow suit and just start ranting like everyone else.
Whoever said that Joshua Clottey is slightly "better than your average fighter" or something like that is a fool. At the very least he'd give the top welterweights a run for their money (look at Cotto for example).
I think the OP said this gem, that Cotto has a far superior fight IQ than Pacquiao because he can change styles mid-fight. He probably does posses the great fight IQ, I'm not denying that. But when have you ever seen Cotto change tactics or make outcome changing decisions in a fight? This should not be a factor in this fight, especially when Pacquiao has Roach in his corner. That right there would nullify any advantage in fighter IQ that Cotto might have.
Some of the most ridiculous things that have been said are things like saying Pacquiao hasn't fought anyone except some small mexicans, Old DLH, and an overrated Hatton. Those small mexicans just happened to be the top lightweights at the time with combined records of 168-18. That 18 could very easily be cut down because most of the losses were taken on at the end of their careers. With regards to DLH and Hatton, the only thing that those two fights show is that Manny did it better than Mayweather, period.
I can't remember if someone tried to dismiss Cotto's opponents or not so I'll just assume that no one did. If someone did, you're ******ed.
Other ridiculous things said in this thread are betting bigger on Pac because Cotto looked ****ty against Clottey (same guy who said he's a bum). This would make perfect sense if Pacquiao and Clottey had ANYTHING in common. They are completely different fighters so using this as your template on how why Pacquiao is going to win is ludicrous.
I'm sure there's more in there but I'm tired and don't feel like reading everything over.
But here's my take on all this. First to answer the OP's question, I think the lines will continue to improve on Cotto all the way up to fight night. Pacquiao's a national sensation now and is know as the P4P King. Even though he's not, people believe the hype and spin. They remember the beating the "much smaller man" (at least wast suppose to be) put on DLH, the golden boy of boxing in the US. Then he DEVASTATED the UK's boxing god Ricky Hatton in two rounds. And then people remember that PBF fought these two and didn't look this good so Pac Man has to be better. Wonderful logic...
This fight should be a pick'em that's slightly leaning towards Pacquiao just because he has all this momentum going into the fight. Anyone who thinks that Pacquiao can score a KO/TKO must be praying for a doctor's stoppage or something. Cotto might get knocked down from a flurry of punches by Pacman but he'll never be down for the full count of 10. Pacquiao is definitely being overrated for this fight after his last two spectacular victories. Cotto is being vastly underrated after his loss to Margarito and a close win to Joshua Clottey.
I was originally leaning Cotto to take this fight but now am leaning back to Manny. There are some definite holes in Cotto's game that if Freddie Roach can exploit as well as he did with Hatton, this should be another Pac Man celebration.
Ok, since no one can answer my question regarding the line movement for me... Here is my rationale.
1. Size
Cotto is the bigger man. We all know and knew this. Don't be fooled by the weigh-in when they will both be around 145. Cotto will balloon back up to around 156-158 on fight night, whereas Pac will be happy to make 150. Pac has been sparring with undefeated prospect Shawn Porter and taking his hits, apparently, with gusto. And that dude is a middleweight. But don't be fooled either, into thinking that means he can hit as hard as Cotto does. Cotto has a seriously legit jab that he both leads and steps in with, and his left hook to the body is arguably the best in the sport. Manny being a southpaw only grants him more opportunities to get hit by this.
Remember also that Cotto took 11 rounds of concrete to the face against Margarito. It is only logical to think that he can take 12 rounds of (a much smaller) Manny.
2. Hubris
This could all be smoke and mirrors, but I subscribe to Occam's Razor when it comes to wagering and it seems to me like there is crazy trouble in the Pacquiao camp. Typhoons and obsessive fans stopping Manny from jogging, fist fights between his advisor Michael Koncz and his fitness guy Alex Ariza, rifts with Freddie Roach, can't all be exaggeration. Just doesn't seem like Manny is taking the threat that Cotto poses seriously, even though Miguel is at this stage in his career, the most legit threat he has faced.
3. Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton
I'm not buying into this. Freddie Roach has admitted on several occasions that he told Manny to jump on Oscar because he noticed the IV marks on his arms that indicated he was severely drained on the night of the fight. Add to this that ODH was far past his prime and the victory is less impressive than the public believes.
Ricky Hatton was overrated for his entire career. But he was good. And just like Roy Jones Jr. he was never the same after being knocked out. Floyd Mayweather did a number on Hatton, destroyed his aura of invincibility and he was never the even the [merely] good fighter that he was before. He then made the ****** choice of hiring Floyd Sr. who tried to recreate him as a new fighter 2 months before his clash with Manny, without dealing with the obvious susceptibility to the lead hook.
These two resounding victories - while very, very impressive - have led the public to give way, way too much credit to Manny. Don't get me wrong, he is an all-time great now and a pound for pound monster. But due to those two wins I do not believe he deserves to be a sub -200 favorite over an elite and legit welterweight like Miguel Cotto.
------------------------------------
Everyone seems to down on Cotto because he a) lost to Margarito, b) didn't knock Josh Clottey out. Well, we know there is a high chance that Margo beat Cotto with loaded gloves in their bout, and as for the Clottey performance. I have serious difficulty with anyone who didn't consider that impressive. In fact, if anything, how he won the Clottey fight is essentially the reason people wagering on Pac should be afraid.
Cotto, unlike Pacquiao, has the ability to switch strategies, mid-fight. Pacquiao has one style. He is AWESOME at it. But if it doesn't work, then what? He decimated Marquez in their first fight by going forward, bobbing, and throwing lots and lots of punches. But when it didn't work he didn't know what to do and as we all know, after knocking Marquez down 3 times AND breaking his nose in the first round, he went on to only DRAW that fight. Similarly, while Cotto can, Pacquiao cannot fight off of the back foot. So what happens when Cotto weathers the early Pac storm and begins to move in on him? Cotto was able to score points and win rounds while Margarito basically walked through his shots because he can fight going backwards. Pacquiao can in no way do this.
Cotto has flat out brilliant ring IQ. Cotto knocked Clottey down in the first round, don't forget. But after that he began to run and it was much less impressive. Why? Because it was pretty much the only way he could win the fight. That's right he had a HUGE gash above his right eye. He had to make sure he took as little punishment there as possible, not for fear of being knocked out, but for fear of medics ending the fight prematurely. That's why he appeared gassed in the later rounds.
The fights that Cotto had with Shane Mosely and Zab Judah show that if nothing else he is a fighter who knows how to nullify speed. Judah, in particular, was extremely fast, and once Cotto adjusted to it, he crushed him. Shane too. And being fast is Manny's prime quality. No one is suggesting that Cotto is as fast as Manny. That is outrageous. But what Cotto does have is an ability to negate the speed advantage, not entirely, but enough to stem the tide and make it at the very least manageable.
Ok, I've gotta run now, but I hope what I wrote helps. BOL, guys, but I really don't think Pacquiao is winning this fight at all. My only concern is that Manny jumps on Cotto early and decks him within 2 rounds, which lets be honest, is possible since Cotto is a notoriously slow starter.
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I'm just going to follow suit and just start ranting like everyone else.
Whoever said that Joshua Clottey is slightly "better than your average fighter" or something like that is a fool. At the very least he'd give the top welterweights a run for their money (look at Cotto for example).
I think the OP said this gem, that Cotto has a far superior fight IQ than Pacquiao because he can change styles mid-fight. He probably does posses the great fight IQ, I'm not denying that. But when have you ever seen Cotto change tactics or make outcome changing decisions in a fight? This should not be a factor in this fight, especially when Pacquiao has Roach in his corner. That right there would nullify any advantage in fighter IQ that Cotto might have.
Some of the most ridiculous things that have been said are things like saying Pacquiao hasn't fought anyone except some small mexicans, Old DLH, and an overrated Hatton. Those small mexicans just happened to be the top lightweights at the time with combined records of 168-18. That 18 could very easily be cut down because most of the losses were taken on at the end of their careers. With regards to DLH and Hatton, the only thing that those two fights show is that Manny did it better than Mayweather, period.
I can't remember if someone tried to dismiss Cotto's opponents or not so I'll just assume that no one did. If someone did, you're ******ed.
Other ridiculous things said in this thread are betting bigger on Pac because Cotto looked ****ty against Clottey (same guy who said he's a bum). This would make perfect sense if Pacquiao and Clottey had ANYTHING in common. They are completely different fighters so using this as your template on how why Pacquiao is going to win is ludicrous.
I'm sure there's more in there but I'm tired and don't feel like reading everything over.
But here's my take on all this. First to answer the OP's question, I think the lines will continue to improve on Cotto all the way up to fight night. Pacquiao's a national sensation now and is know as the P4P King. Even though he's not, people believe the hype and spin. They remember the beating the "much smaller man" (at least wast suppose to be) put on DLH, the golden boy of boxing in the US. Then he DEVASTATED the UK's boxing god Ricky Hatton in two rounds. And then people remember that PBF fought these two and didn't look this good so Pac Man has to be better. Wonderful logic...
This fight should be a pick'em that's slightly leaning towards Pacquiao just because he has all this momentum going into the fight. Anyone who thinks that Pacquiao can score a KO/TKO must be praying for a doctor's stoppage or something. Cotto might get knocked down from a flurry of punches by Pacman but he'll never be down for the full count of 10. Pacquiao is definitely being overrated for this fight after his last two spectacular victories. Cotto is being vastly underrated after his loss to Margarito and a close win to Joshua Clottey.
I was originally leaning Cotto to take this fight but now am leaning back to Manny. There are some definite holes in Cotto's game that if Freddie Roach can exploit as well as he did with Hatton, this should be another Pac Man celebration.
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