Is boots ennis a top 10 p4p fighter in october 2022?

[SteveM]

There's always going to be hot young guys. Sometimes you can just tell by looking at a fighter that they will have a special career. I felt that way abut Terence Crawford when I first saw him and I think that's panned out. But imo the panning out part is pretty huge.

With that said, imo it's definitely a great time to buy Boots Ennis stock. The only thing I'm worried about with him is that it's been too easy, and what happens when it stops being too easy. But that's a great problem for a young fighter to have.

I too thought that about Bud - it has mostly panned out bar that he has yet to have a signature win at 147. I thought that about Golovkin too but it has only half panned out - it turns out that he struggles against B level fighters like Jacobs and Derev. Albeit that his prime was probably back in 2012/13. I thought it with Rigo but he messed up his own career - so I totally get it that Ennis may be flattering to deceive - but I can only go on what I see - I've seen nothing to suggest he won't be a champion at least at 147 and 154.

[SteveM]

BTW I do want to say that a fighter's proven accomplishments are very meaningful on a practical as well as theoretical level.

If you study the past fights of a boxer before he goes into a big match woith his next opponent in mind, you will be able to see strengths and weaknesses in their game even from fights years ago, that you will then see pay off in their next match. Old fight footage is extremely valuable in evaluating fighters, because you get to see how the same guy handles himself in a variety of different looks and situations. If you do any betting on fights I highly recommend doing this, even revisiting one or two previous fights against a similar styled opponent from years ago will make you hugely better at picking good bets.

Yes - proven is better than the eye test - but my point is that they don't fight often enough and so much can happen - injuries, outside-ring issues, aging.
Good point, I do bet pocket money so I'll do that - but I'd still put more emphasis on recent form. For example, based on what you're saying - the best way to assess chances in Golovkin-Canelo 3 was to look at the first 2 fights - because you can't get a better comparison than a fight against the same fighter they are going to fight - well that's fine if it was their last fight like Usyk-AJ but not when Golovkin has aged 4 years and Canelo had been up to 168 and dominated.

[Jo*]

Jaron Ennis could be the next Roy Jones with that killer jump in lead hook or he could flop. You can't be sure about those hot prospects before they've been in deep with the true elite guys. He isn't top10 pfp yet but could soon be. Bivol is super talented, after Haney he might be the most complete fighter these days, at least technically. Canelo had no business being at LHW, thus he has nothing to be ashamed about. Nonetheless, he's likely a tad past his prime by now.

[SteveM]

Jaron Ennis could be the next Roy Jones with that killer jump in lead hook or he could flop. You can't be sure about those hot prospects before they've been in deep with the true elite guys. He isn't top10 pfp yet but could soon be. Bivol is super talented, after Haney he might be the most complete fighter these days, at least technically. Canelo had no business being at LHW, thus he has nothing to be ashamed about. Nonetheless, he's likely a tad past his prime by now.

Yes, we don't know for sure about Ennis but I have been watching boxing for longer than I care to admit and he is looking as good as RJJ, Ray Leonard and Breland when theywere rising prospects. Breland had a good career but didn't fulfil his potential - we know how high RJJ and SRL reached. Agree with your takes on Bivol and Cnelo, not so much Haney who is not as well rounded - too much clinching - possibly have a career more like Andre Ward - great but boring.

[The Ninth Layer]

Yes, you have a different notion of P$P than I do. I do pay attention to resume but only for the last 18 months or so - and that's because so much can, and often does change in 18 months. Now even that has provisos - when Mikey Garcia didn't fightfor quite a while he was in his prime when he came back so it didn't make much difference. But 18 months for a 37 year old is a long time as they are falling off rapidly - smae dealfor a 19 year old and 21 year old but in other direction.

Yes, I totally get that losing to Bivol and beating Golovkin doesn't mean much if you only look at the career resumes of Bivol and especially Golovkin. But I'm looking at it in a more nuanced way. It's a question of how he lost to Bivol. He was totally outclassed and befuddled. It was a question of how he beat a by now very faded Golovkin who bore no resemblance to the Golovkin of 2017/18. I think these nuances matter and that's why the title of my thread has October 2022 in it - how is Canelo in October 2022, not how he might be justifiably perceived to be based on his resume since he beat Matthew Hatton - that is more a criteria for whether he or any other fighter gets in the HOF.

Canelo is trending down - steeply. Ennis is trending up steeply. Perceptions.

His career has been exceptional - and the odds are that a trend will continue - maybe 2 off fights is not a big enough sample to call it a trend - but its at least the beginning of a potential trend and given his wear and tear and no. of fights I'm predicting we've seen the best of Canelo.

You are putting a lot of stock into recency, the reality is that boxing is very stratified skill wise. Young fighters coming up eventually find their level of skill and tend to stay there throughout their career, albeit with some developments. A 30 year old fighter is the same guy as the 25 year old fighter and has all those same skills. Same with the 37 year old version of that fighter Two years is a very small time frame in boxing and it's very rare to see any fighter undergo a drastic change in ability in such a short period. Older fighters decline physically, have slower reflexes and issues with conditioning and making weight, and are affected by the accumulation of damage over their careers... but a skilled 35 year old will likely still be very skilled two years later. Not much will have changed.

As far as the very best go in boxing... not many active fighters today are going to beat Golovkin even at 40 years old. In fact nobody has except for Canelo. GGG has clearly aged and isn't the destroyer he was at 30, but he is still the same Golovkin, with all those same skills; he showed a flash of those skills at the tail end of Canelo-GGG 3. He's clearly no longer a pound for pound top fighter, but he's still probably one of the world's best five middleweights, or at the very least I don't think there are five guys who have made better cases than his. A guy like that doesn't suddenly become easy pickings.

Regarding Bivol, yes Canelo looked outclassed and befuddled. He was fighting a bigger, longer guy who is fleet on his feet and prioritizes defensive fighting at range. It's the exact style of fighter that has given Canelo issues in the past (Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara) combined with the physical advantage of size which is an extremely important factor in any boxing match. Bivol fought his game plan to perfection and gave Canelo nothing to work with, and Canelo may have been surprised by just how fast Bivol's feet were in person. You can't train for a guy like that because there aren't that many guys like that. My takeaway from the fight was that Bivol is probably a pound for pound worthy fighter that had been uinderrated or overlooked by the public before the Canelo match. But he's also a guy two divisions up from where Canelo fought Golovkin in those two epic battles. Big guys are supposed to beat little guys in boxing, especially when the big guys are really good boxers.

Maybe other guys at light heavyweight also beat Canelo Alvarez if he fights them. But Canelo's a p4p guy because he's not supposed to be fighting light heavyweights, but is anyway. And let's throw CVs out, who at 154-168 can claim to be a credible threat to Canelo even two years from now? Jermall Charlo, maybe? Benavidez? Those guys can try, but they're not Bivol.

Maybe 2022 wasn't a banner year for Canelo but it's absolutely not a "steep trend down." If anything he's so dominant there's not a clear next challenge for him outside a Biovl rematch, or even crazier stuff like an Usyk match at heavyweight. He's essentially the champ of two divisions simultaneously.

As for Crawford, maybe his welterweight record isn't as full of heralded well-promoted guys as Spence's but Crawford has handled all comers even at one guy a year. That's still the same dude who cleaned out two divisions on his way there, so good luck to anyone including Boots if they think it's gonna be an easy time. At 35 Bud is still one of the most adaptable fighters you'll find in any division and his killer instinct for finishing guys off is still second to none. He doesn't need to fight Danny Garcia for me to know he can do it at welterweight, I've seen him do it to comparable guys for years and years now.

[The Ninth Layer]

Yes - proven is better than the eye test - but my point is that they don't fight often enough and so much can happen - injuries, outside-ring issues, aging.
Good point, I do bet pocket money so I'll do that - but I'd still put more emphasis on recent form. For example, based on what you're saying - the best way to assess chances in Golovkin-Canelo 3 was to look at the first 2 fights - because you can't get a better comparison than a fight against the same fighter they are going to fight - well that's fine if it was their last fight like Usyk-AJ but not when Golovkin has aged 4 years and Canelo had been up to 168 and dominated.

This is actually a pretty good example because if you'd looked at the first two fights you would see that Golovkin was a very tough match for Canelo, gave him fits with his attack behind the jab, and was dangerous enough that Canelo couldn't just come in and bully him. We all knew the third fight would be unfavorable for Golovkin who was four years older and not nearly as energetic in recent fights. But style wise he still matched up strongly against Canelo, especially in the later rounds when he became less gunshy. There wasn't really any reason to expect Canelo to lay him out.

[4truth]

He certainly has a place on the theoretical list. He definitely looks the part vs the level of fighter he has faced so far

[real raw]

Boots is in the top 10 pfp, imo. Weights being equal, I dont see many fighters beating him.