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Rewatching the last few fights for both fighters, I've had some interesting thoughts. I'm not so sure the outcome is as binary as most people are predicting =--->
He's pretty much the same fighter he's always been, the Derevyanchenko fight was high action and Derevyanchenko fought the fight of his life. Szeremeta was a cherry, but rightly so after such a hard fight with Derevyanchenko. The Murata fight, GGG's tempo was a little less, but he didn't look old in there. Maybe an argument for looking older, but definitely not old. Murata did land a bit of body shots and the punches most frequently landed were right hands and hooks. It should be noted, Canelo doesn't fight like either of these guys, especially Derevyanchenko.
Looking back at Canelo
His tempo has declined since the 2nd GGG fight. He mechanically plods along, moving his head trying to get into position for the big shot. He's fine with losing rounds to hunt for the KO (only because the judges are in his pocket). If you go back to Saunders, Saunders did pretty good when he had the sack to, Plant was looking A-OK and had a bit of success until right at the end, he took Canelo's power fine (until the 11th). Bivol, Canelo looked gassed from the opening bell and kinda looked old in there. Canelo's tempo from each fight has been less and less.
Cypocryphy talked about Canelo being on the downslide, I agree with that. That's what the last 3 fights show.
More plodding, less action, always loading up for the big shots. Whether this is mental, physical, or a combination of both is yet to be determined.
The Canelo that fought GGG in those first two fights is a thing of the past. You can't say that for GGG, his tempo is good (although less), especially for a fighter his age.
As far as Age goes
100% GGG is out of his prime and it shows a little bit. Overall, he's pretty much the same due to cherry-picking his opponents throughout the years and recently. You have to at his age to survive.
I also believe Canelo is out of his prime as well. Usually if you turn pro at 18 and don't take a lot of damage, my algorithm based on a huge datapool indicates that your physical prime in boxing ends around 32-34 (14-16 years). Canelo turned pro at 15 and I don't think he's taken a lot of damage, but he's taken plenty of punches so I think we can evenly calibrate my algorithm to 29-31 years-old (currently 17 years pro). I think it's pretty clear Canelo is out of his prime. In the first GGG fights his tempo was way up, now his tempo is way down and has gotten worse over the last 3 fights. I believe this will continue to be less as time moves on.
As far as Fight Fixing goes
Usually when the judges start scoring against you =---> it's a wrap. But in Canelo's case, he's the golden goose of boxing, investments are very high, and maybe we'll continue to see fixes, favoritism, and the bias continue for a bit longer. It's really a unique situation thats almost impossible to deduce. Even though Weisfeld and Moretti scored against Canelo in theBivol fight =---> THEY HAD TO.
Canelo won 2 rounds and they still had it 115-113, clearly they're fixed.
If they scored winning scores they would be removed for retraining. Weisfeld and Moretti also scored a win for Canelo in GGG 2 where GGG clearly won the fight. My scorecard can be found HERE.
Final Thoughts
GGG has gotten into Canelo's head with the shit talking which can be a huge edge. Canelo is looking to win by ko/tko and talking a lot about body shots. GGG is pretty tough, they've shared 24 rounds with each other, and GGG's punch resistence seems unhindered. GGG took a lot of damage against Derevyanchenko, but Canelo took a lot of damage from Bivol. Bivol is much more recent that Derevyanchenko was. I can't get the thought out of my head that if Plant can go 11 rounds without problem, I don't see a major problem for GGG. GGG's tempo seems close to normal, Canelo's not so much.
GGG is coming up in weight, whereas Canelo is coming down in weight. Very unique situation here. Coming down is weight is historically much more damaging. But we have no idea what GGG will look like one class up, he's 40. Maybe it gives him the power he needs to hurt Canelo, unknown. Any fighter at 40 years-old can show up old over night. Will Canelo's out of prime behavior continue to show and will he gas from every punch being a deathblow?
If the fight fixing element was closer to even, I would be more inclinced to recommend action on GGG but it's such an intanglible here, it's a pick 'em in that regard.
GGG is around +375 (Canelo around -500) which is an excellent value, but you have to be stoned out of your mind to bet against Canelo.
Either way, I'm hyped.
- GGG is old
- Canelo knocks old guys out
- Canelo by KO
He's pretty much the same fighter he's always been, the Derevyanchenko fight was high action and Derevyanchenko fought the fight of his life. Szeremeta was a cherry, but rightly so after such a hard fight with Derevyanchenko. The Murata fight, GGG's tempo was a little less, but he didn't look old in there. Maybe an argument for looking older, but definitely not old. Murata did land a bit of body shots and the punches most frequently landed were right hands and hooks. It should be noted, Canelo doesn't fight like either of these guys, especially Derevyanchenko.
Looking back at Canelo
His tempo has declined since the 2nd GGG fight. He mechanically plods along, moving his head trying to get into position for the big shot. He's fine with losing rounds to hunt for the KO (only because the judges are in his pocket). If you go back to Saunders, Saunders did pretty good when he had the sack to, Plant was looking A-OK and had a bit of success until right at the end, he took Canelo's power fine (until the 11th). Bivol, Canelo looked gassed from the opening bell and kinda looked old in there. Canelo's tempo from each fight has been less and less.
Cypocryphy talked about Canelo being on the downslide, I agree with that. That's what the last 3 fights show.
More plodding, less action, always loading up for the big shots. Whether this is mental, physical, or a combination of both is yet to be determined.
The Canelo that fought GGG in those first two fights is a thing of the past. You can't say that for GGG, his tempo is good (although less), especially for a fighter his age.
As far as Age goes
100% GGG is out of his prime and it shows a little bit. Overall, he's pretty much the same due to cherry-picking his opponents throughout the years and recently. You have to at his age to survive.
I also believe Canelo is out of his prime as well. Usually if you turn pro at 18 and don't take a lot of damage, my algorithm based on a huge datapool indicates that your physical prime in boxing ends around 32-34 (14-16 years). Canelo turned pro at 15 and I don't think he's taken a lot of damage, but he's taken plenty of punches so I think we can evenly calibrate my algorithm to 29-31 years-old (currently 17 years pro). I think it's pretty clear Canelo is out of his prime. In the first GGG fights his tempo was way up, now his tempo is way down and has gotten worse over the last 3 fights. I believe this will continue to be less as time moves on.
As far as Fight Fixing goes
Usually when the judges start scoring against you =---> it's a wrap. But in Canelo's case, he's the golden goose of boxing, investments are very high, and maybe we'll continue to see fixes, favoritism, and the bias continue for a bit longer. It's really a unique situation thats almost impossible to deduce. Even though Weisfeld and Moretti scored against Canelo in theBivol fight =---> THEY HAD TO.
Canelo won 2 rounds and they still had it 115-113, clearly they're fixed.
If they scored winning scores they would be removed for retraining. Weisfeld and Moretti also scored a win for Canelo in GGG 2 where GGG clearly won the fight. My scorecard can be found HERE.
Final Thoughts
GGG has gotten into Canelo's head with the shit talking which can be a huge edge. Canelo is looking to win by ko/tko and talking a lot about body shots. GGG is pretty tough, they've shared 24 rounds with each other, and GGG's punch resistence seems unhindered. GGG took a lot of damage against Derevyanchenko, but Canelo took a lot of damage from Bivol. Bivol is much more recent that Derevyanchenko was. I can't get the thought out of my head that if Plant can go 11 rounds without problem, I don't see a major problem for GGG. GGG's tempo seems close to normal, Canelo's not so much.
GGG is coming up in weight, whereas Canelo is coming down in weight. Very unique situation here. Coming down is weight is historically much more damaging. But we have no idea what GGG will look like one class up, he's 40. Maybe it gives him the power he needs to hurt Canelo, unknown. Any fighter at 40 years-old can show up old over night. Will Canelo's out of prime behavior continue to show and will he gas from every punch being a deathblow?
If the fight fixing element was closer to even, I would be more inclinced to recommend action on GGG but it's such an intanglible here, it's a pick 'em in that regard.
GGG is around +375 (Canelo around -500) which is an excellent value, but you have to be stoned out of your mind to bet against Canelo.
Either way, I'm hyped.