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Comments Thread For: Teofimo Lopez Is Proving The Power Of Manager David McWater's Boxing Analytics

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  • Comments Thread For: Teofimo Lopez Is Proving The Power Of Manager David McWater's Boxing Analytics

    By Corey Erdman - David McWater's Split-T Management is known as boxing's answer to Moneyball. As a lifelong baseball fan and researcher, as well as a lover of the Sweet Science, McWater has said that he felt he could combine his passions and capitalize on a market inefficiency. In his words, boxing was the "last frontier of analytics," and not only was there data to be mined and leveraged, but that since other people weren't thinking about things as mathematically, there must also be undervalued fighters on the market as well.
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  • #2
    Sounds like a load of bull****
    Fact and TinAgeOfBoxing like this.

    Comment


    • #3
      Ah so you had to a mathematician to know Teo was going to win a WT lol, really.

      Sounds to me like he knows how to set out and package potential and then sell it.

      Comment


      • #4
        They hit the lotto when Triller overpayed.

        Comment


        • #5
          So, kid, will you rematch Loma or get destroyed by Taylor? Which big fight will you take?

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          • #6
            As someone who deals with statistical analysis in my job and in my PhD to a lesser extent, I'd have a couple of worries about this approach - firstly, boxing doesn't happen nearly as often as any sport, so your sample size is by necessity either very volatile ('swingy') or else is going to be predicated on an observer's guesstimation of certain metrics, which is what coaches, pundits and fans already do. Secondly, boxers learn outside fights. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis argues that you couldn't identify Barry Zito as a top pitcher until he'd perfected the disguise on his curveball in his senior year of college; the same things happen in boxing gyms, because boxing is a technical sport. I'm not saying this sort of analysis can't give you an edge, I'm just very sceptical of its use relative to sports in which it's used more routinely.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by gingerbreadman View Post
              As someone who deals with statistical analysis in my job and in my PhD to a lesser extent, I'd have a couple of worries about this approach - firstly, boxing doesn't happen nearly as often as any sport, so your sample size is by necessity either very volatile ('swingy') or else is going to be predicated on an observer's guesstimation of certain metrics, which is what coaches, pundits and fans already do. Secondly, boxers learn outside fights. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis argues that you couldn't identify Barry Zito as a top pitcher until he'd perfected the disguise on his curveball in his senior year of college; the same things happen in boxing gyms, because boxing is a technical sport. I'm not saying this sort of analysis can't give you an edge, I'm just very sceptical of its use relative to sports in which it's used more routinely.
              I agree but what I did find interesting was the “ matches like a Gold medalist “
              piece of the article.

              Clearly TR doesn’t promote everyone equally and gives the Gold medal winners a clearer path to titles. Kind of makes sense since they in theory have more name value .

              If you saw this weekend- shakur was told he will get herring next while the Gold medalist, Conceicao, is getting the more lucrative Valdez fight.

              Don’t know if this moneyball thing will have long term success in boxing but the comparison to SRL and Fishnets and using that as a career guide peaked my interest.

              If it gives us better fights and improves the sport then I’m all for it.

              Comment


              • #8
                So it takes a statistician to know that gold medalist winners have a greater chance to succeed in boxing, geesh

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by gingerbreadman View Post
                  As someone who deals with statistical analysis in my job and in my PhD to a lesser extent, I'd have a couple of worries about this approach - firstly, boxing doesn't happen nearly as often as any sport, so your sample size is by necessity either very volatile ('swingy') or else is going to be predicated on an observer's guesstimation of certain metrics, which is what coaches, pundits and fans already do. Secondly, boxers learn outside fights. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis argues that you couldn't identify Barry Zito as a top pitcher until he'd perfected the disguise on his curveball in his senior year of college; the same things happen in boxing gyms, because boxing is a technical sport. I'm not saying this sort of analysis can't give you an edge, I'm just very sceptical of its use relative to sports in which it's used more routinely.
                  Boxing also doesn't really have very many statistics to use, does it? Apart from compubox stats, which are probably vastly less accurate than any other stat any major sport collects, what else is there? You have the fighter's measurements which are also often inaccurate or exaggerated. Thier record. Could go further and put in fighting style like a rock paper scissors kind of thing. Clearly, I have no idea what I'm talking about now. My previous points still seem valid though. Beyond all that, I can't think of anything other than some estimated video game type stats, like giving numbers for power, movement, skill, stamina etc. I guess that's what you meant in the end of your first point though more or less.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    If Teofimo Lopez continues to grind, work hard but especially win then he would get there. It doesn't take analytics or rocket science to project that he would become a huge box office and mainstream draw. The kid is gifted.

                    Comment

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