Kelly Pavlik vs Arthur Abraham SERIOUS Analysis

[PrettyBoyRoy 88]

I got AA on this one. I wouldn't be too sure if the fight is held at 160 since AA seemed to have trouble making weight in both his last fights.

[Low Blow Armo]

I don't think Pavlik has the discipline not to get into a slugfest with AA. Pavlik loses this fight easy.

[Silencers]

This is my analysis of the fight done a few months ago, my thoughts on the matter hasn't changed.

Pavlik has trouble with movers, like he did with Taylor in their second fight and obviously Hopkins when they fought, Abraham isn't a mover, he generally stays in front of his opponents and picks off shots with his arms and gloves while waiting for counter shots, Abraham generally doesn't lead too often either, this makes it easier for Pavlik to find his range and distance which would make the fight very tough for Abraham because Pavlik has a very good jab when he can find his range, and once the jab gets pumping, the right hand will follow.

Pavlik is also pretty good at taking a step back when his opponents are coming forward, which would work well in this case because when Abraham does counter, he drops his hands and sometimes swings wildly, if Pavlik can take that step back and unload a combination of his own, it would probably work.

Abraham's workrate at 160 is suspect as well, he normally takes off half a round before getting started which would also play into Pavlik's hands because Pavlik is a high workrate guy, he has a very high workrate for a middleweight, so while Abraham is covering up looking for counter shots, Pavlik can pepper him with his own shots, doesn't really matter is their landing or not, because Abraham probably won't be doing anything in return.

One thing Pavlik would have to look out for though is Abraham's counter shots, because Abraham can ****, he's probably one of the hardest punchers in boxing today with one punch and probably hits harder than Pavlik, Pavlik has to be careful not to get into Abraham's range when he's punching or stay at Abraham's range when he's finished punching, he'll need to use his footwork and jab to keep the fight at his range where Abraham can't get to him.

And whenever he does find himself on the inside, I'd like to see him throw a few body shots, clinch and get out of there, Pavlik is a good body puncher when he goes to the body, which is not often enough. I'd also like to see him work on his left hook because when Abraham's throws his left hook when he comes out of his shell, he sometimes drops his right hand and his chin is right there to be hit, a counter left hook from Pavlik could work really well.

[KingArthur]

Unless Abraham drops Pavlik repetatively I see no way in hell he could possibly win a decision. Pavlik works close to twice as much as AA in the ring. Unless Abraham seriously ramps up his workrate, which I don't think he will, a decision is pretty much impossible for him IMO.

Yeah I agree, no decesion win for AA

[taino78]

ill take abraham too strong

[βetamax]

One one hand I see Pavlik being a sitting duck for Abraham's counter flurries since he likes to stand in right of his opponents and doesn't really move his head. On the other hand I can see Abraham's shell defense being cracked by someone like Pavlik. Miranda got punches through his guard which is how he broke his jaw and Pavlik is better at placing and putting punches together.

It's an interesting matchup.

[KingArthur]

This is my analysis of the fight done a few months ago, my thoughts on the matter hasn't changed.

Pavlik has trouble with movers, like he did with Taylor in their second fight and obviously Hopkins when they fought, Abraham isn't a mover, he generally stays in front of his opponents and picks off shots with his arms and gloves while waiting for counter shots, Abraham generally doesn't lead too often either, this makes it easier for Pavlik to find his range and distance which would make the fight very tough for Abraham because Pavlik has a very good jab when he can find his range, and once the jab gets pumping, the right hand will follow.

Pavlik is also pretty good at taking a step back when his opponents are coming forward, which would work well in this case because when Abraham does counter, he drops his hands and sometimes swings wildly, if Pavlik can take that step back and unload a combination of his own, it would probably work.

Abraham's workrate at 160 is suspect as well, he normally takes off half a round before getting started which would also play into Pavlik's hands because Pavlik is a high workrate guy, he has a very high workrate for a middleweight, so while Abraham is covering up looking for counter shots, Pavlik can pepper him with his own shots, doesn't really matter is their landing or not, because Abraham probably won't be doing anything in return.

One thing Pavlik would have to look out for though is Abraham's counter shots, because Abraham can ****, he's probably one of the hardest punchers in boxing today with one punch and probably hits harder than Pavlik, Pavlik has to be careful not to get into Abraham's range when he's punching or stay at Abraham's range when he's finished punching, he'll need to use his footwork and jab to keep the fight at his range where Abraham can't get to him.

And whenever he does find himself on the inside, I'd like to see him throw a few body shots, clinch and get out of there, Pavlik is a good body puncher when he goes to the body, which is not often enough. I'd also like to see him work on his left hook because when Abraham's throws his left hook when he comes out of his shell, he sometimes drops his right hand and his chin is right there to be hit, a counter left hook from Pavlik could work really well.

I generally agree with your post, and once again a very intelligent and well thought-out post thank you, but the point you make with when AA gets out of his shell Pavlik will step back and counter I disagree with. I believe Pavlik will take those shots and the rest will be up to the judges. Do the judges like QUALITY or QUANTITY. I think your right though on all fronts and since I'm a quantity guy I favor Pavlik too.

[βetamax]

This is my analysis of the fight done a few months ago, my thoughts on the matter hasn't changed.

Pavlik has trouble with movers, like he did with Taylor in their second fight and obviously Hopkins when they fought, Abraham isn't a mover, he generally stays in front of his opponents and picks off shots with his arms and gloves while waiting for counter shots, Abraham generally doesn't lead too often either, this makes it easier for Pavlik to find his range and distance which would make the fight very tough for Abraham because Pavlik has a very good jab when he can find his range, and once the jab gets pumping, the right hand will follow.

Pavlik is also pretty good at taking a step back when his opponents are coming forward, which would work well in this case because when Abraham does counter, he drops his hands and sometimes swings wildly, if Pavlik can take that step back and unload a combination of his own, it would probably work.

Abraham's workrate at 160 is suspect as well, he normally takes off half a round before getting started which would also play into Pavlik's hands because Pavlik is a high workrate guy, he has a very high workrate for a middleweight, so while Abraham is covering up looking for counter shots, Pavlik can pepper him with his own shots, doesn't really matter is their landing or not, because Abraham probably won't be doing anything in return.

One thing Pavlik would have to look out for though is Abraham's counter shots, because Abraham can ****, he's probably one of the hardest punchers in boxing today with one punch and probably hits harder than Pavlik, Pavlik has to be careful not to get into Abraham's range when he's punching or stay at Abraham's range when he's finished punching, he'll need to use his footwork and jab to keep the fight at his range where Abraham can't get to him.

And whenever he does find himself on the inside, I'd like to see him throw a few body shots, clinch and get out of there, Pavlik is a good body puncher when he goes to the body, which is not often enough. I'd also like to see him work on his left hook because when Abraham's throws his left hook when he comes out of his shell, he sometimes drops his right hand and his chin is right there to be hit, a counter left hook from Pavlik could work really well.

Good analysis, I agree!

[KingArthur]

One one hand I see Pavlik being a sitting duck for Abraham's counter flurries since he likes to stand in right of his opponents and doesn't really move his head. On the other hand I can see Abraham's shell defense being cracked by someone like Pavlik. Miranda got punches through his guard which is how he broke his jaw and Pavlik is better at placing and putting punches together.

It's an interesting matchup.

Miranda was only getting HOOKS to land on AA, and we all know thats Pavlik strong punches are straights instead of hooks. Having said that I truly believe Pavliks straight punches are the hardest and most powerful in the sport and if stand in front of him, I dont care what kind of a defence you have unless your moving your head (something AA does not do) the majority of those powerful straights will land

[Silencers]

I generally agree with your post, and once again a very intelligent and well thought-out post thank you, but the point you make with when AA gets out of his shell Pavlik will step back and counter I disagree with. I believe Pavlik will take those shots and the rest will be up to the judges. Do the judges like QUALITY or QUANTITY. I think your right though on all fronts and since I'm a quantity guy I favor Pavlik too.

I wasn't saying that Pavlik will do that, I was saying that he has shown the ability to do that in the past effectively and would be well served to do it against Abraham because as I said, Abraham gets wild when he throws his shots and drops his hands, a step back would create the separation Pavlik would need to generate power to catch Abraham coming in.

I don't think Pavlik would be dumb enough to just stand there and take those shots, it's a dangerous thing for him to do.

One more thing that I didn't add to that post, Pavlik would have to be careful when he's backing up, don't back straight up, Abraham's left hook will catch him if he backs straight up.