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Margarito by clear UD. I wouldn't be surprised if he stopped a beaten and tired Mosley late in the fight.
Mosley, as most older fighters do, has to pick his spots more and conserve energy. Look at how much more he clinches now, such as the Cotto and Mayorga bouts, as opposed to his younger days (he did clinch a lot when he was only 30-31 against Forrest in the rematch, but besides that). You see it with older fighters, they can do some of the brilliant things of their youth in spots, but not with as much consistency. That's going to be very hard to do against a tough guy with the insane stamina and workate of Margarito. That's why I have said that it might be in Mosley's best interest to "stink it out" against Tony. Use his faster hands to beat Tony to the punch, and clinch. Mosley is pretty strong and should handle himself fairly well in the clinch.
Margarito walked through some hard shots of perhaps the biggest puncher in the WW division in Cintron, so it's difficult to picture his shots really discouraging or hurting Tony. It's going to take a lot of shots to do that to Margarito. As shown against Cotto, Margarito can be pretty effective at defending a good body attack, which Shane has.
Margarito was troubled by the insane workrate of Williams (a very tall guy who has a wingspan longer than most HW champs in history). He was also outboxed by Cotto for the first few rounds. But Mosley doesn't have the workrate and size of Williams, and not as technically sound a boxer as Cotto. Mosley's always been more of a speedy slugger than a technical boxer, with immense physical gifts. However, that might not be too bad of a thing in this case. I think Mosley has to have a good mix of boxing and brawling in this bout, along with the holding tactics I mentioned earlier.
I won't totally count out Mosley's chances. I give him more of a chance at winning, than say, I did Roy against Joe, Tito against Roy, or Ibragimov against Wlad. But I'll be very shocked if he wins. He fights too much in spurts, not especially hard to hit (he's always left himself open, but older age and slower reflexes makes him even less hard to catch), and up against a fighter with insane stamina, toughness, and workrate. People like to downgrade Tony and look at him as some skill-less brawler, but it's not quite that simple. There's some really good things he does in there. He throws shots from all sorts of angles. He has a good variety of shots. He's pretty heavy-handed, even if he's not a big one-shot guy, his punches tend to have a damaging effect. As said before, he did a good job of defending Cotto's body attack (or countering upstairs when Cotto did go to the body).
Mosley, as most older fighters do, has to pick his spots more and conserve energy. Look at how much more he clinches now, such as the Cotto and Mayorga bouts, as opposed to his younger days (he did clinch a lot when he was only 30-31 against Forrest in the rematch, but besides that). You see it with older fighters, they can do some of the brilliant things of their youth in spots, but not with as much consistency. That's going to be very hard to do against a tough guy with the insane stamina and workate of Margarito. That's why I have said that it might be in Mosley's best interest to "stink it out" against Tony. Use his faster hands to beat Tony to the punch, and clinch. Mosley is pretty strong and should handle himself fairly well in the clinch.
Margarito walked through some hard shots of perhaps the biggest puncher in the WW division in Cintron, so it's difficult to picture his shots really discouraging or hurting Tony. It's going to take a lot of shots to do that to Margarito. As shown against Cotto, Margarito can be pretty effective at defending a good body attack, which Shane has.
Margarito was troubled by the insane workrate of Williams (a very tall guy who has a wingspan longer than most HW champs in history). He was also outboxed by Cotto for the first few rounds. But Mosley doesn't have the workrate and size of Williams, and not as technically sound a boxer as Cotto. Mosley's always been more of a speedy slugger than a technical boxer, with immense physical gifts. However, that might not be too bad of a thing in this case. I think Mosley has to have a good mix of boxing and brawling in this bout, along with the holding tactics I mentioned earlier.
I won't totally count out Mosley's chances. I give him more of a chance at winning, than say, I did Roy against Joe, Tito against Roy, or Ibragimov against Wlad. But I'll be very shocked if he wins. He fights too much in spurts, not especially hard to hit (he's always left himself open, but older age and slower reflexes makes him even less hard to catch), and up against a fighter with insane stamina, toughness, and workrate. People like to downgrade Tony and look at him as some skill-less brawler, but it's not quite that simple. There's some really good things he does in there. He throws shots from all sorts of angles. He has a good variety of shots. He's pretty heavy-handed, even if he's not a big one-shot guy, his punches tend to have a damaging effect. As said before, he did a good job of defending Cotto's body attack (or countering upstairs when Cotto did go to the body).
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