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Well, here we are Nov. 7th, 2008. The morning before Superman Roy Jones Jr. faces the toughest fight of his latter career against P4P #3 Super Joe Calzaghe. As I promised in June, I am officially documenting my fight prediction in full detail. I am a little displeased about the number of entries, but no big deal.
Before I get started, please understand that I have the utmost respect for Joe Calzaghe and his camp and have been very impressed with the way they have been acting since in the states. I wish the best for Joe even though i have been really hard on him in the buildup to this fight with my all-time favorite pugilist, Roy Jones. I was rooting for Joe in every other fight I have seen him in prior to now, including against B-hop. I think Joe has been an exceptional champion, obviously, and has really stepped it up in the final stages of his career in which a win over Jones is a great way to cap it off.
Unfortunately though, I do not think Calzaghe will retire undefeated. My detailed fight prediction follows.
Round 1
Joe and Roy will come out to the center of the ring more reluctant than probably expected, especially on Calzaghe's part. Joe will settle in and throw a few winging, fast combos that really dont do much while Roy uses this time to get used to Joe's handspeed and style. Joe will be kinda stunned at the speed of the punches from Jones , but will pick up on that in short order. Before the first round closes, Joe will be moving a little but will have realized that this is no old man he is fighting, but a motivated former lineal champ. Round one is pretty even, but goes to Joe because he did more moving and connected more than Roy.
Round 2.
Jones starts a little faster to further gain Joe's respect because he has sensed that Joe realized that this was no cake walk. Joe moves well and gets out of the way of a few punches and gets tagged by a couple as well. Calzaghe throws back and the punches are mostly blocked and a few get in to the body to no affect. They go back and forth and Jones begins to show that he is bigger and stronger while easily moving Joe in and out of range. Jones feels the crowd and showboats a little, but Joe counters that with a little bravado of his own. Usually this happens later in the fight, but not with these two men and not on this night. Round 2 goes to Jones on connecting with more meaningful punches.
Round 3
Calzaghe is more willing to let his hands go because Roy seemed to gain some momentum in the second and he has not been hit too hard up until this point. Roy is okay moving forward into Joe using his weight and reflexes to pick off punches, etc... Calzaghe lands a few good shots that halfway connect to the head and a few body shots, but little damage is done. Roy is content to throw far fewer punches, but they are sharp and mostly hit the mark. Joe starts to get the picture about the weight and the power difference, even when blocking those shots. Round 3 goes to Calzaghe off of workrate.
Round 4
Joe comes out in a hurry, throwing alot of shots and connecting with a few meaningful ones. Roy is backed up and envites Joe to keep that up. Calzaghe does just that and is caught with a glancing uppercut that resets the pace. Joe feels the distinct difference in power and the speed of the punches that are coming back at him and backs off for a little bit, knowing that he is being timed. Roy moves forward and throws a combination that resembles the Roy that beat Woods in 2002. The fans are happy to see such sport and cheer ragingly for Jones to press the action. Roy does just that and hurts Joe with a body shot , but Joe is tough and decides to wing em' while the round comes to a close. Jones has won that round by effective punching but was out-thrown and landed.
Round 5
This round marks the turning point in the fight. Jones starts to time Joe more easily with the punches coming back from Joe being his defense. Roy does mostly covering up, but lands in between Joes shots, slowing Joe back down. Roy lands a few telling body punches and gets Joe thinking again. They both flurry and Roy wins the speed battle but lets off the gas before Calzaghe does, with his massive workrate. Joe puts Jones back in the ropes and goes in for the kill. Roy is okay with this, since he is still rested at this point. Calzaghe comes in and is caught with a hard right hand in between punches. Joe hangs on because he feels that one. Roy moves around the hold, knowing the straight right started to hurt Joe. Roy lands a clean combination ending in an uppercut and dropping Calzaghe in the process. Joe is visibly more stunned than he was in the Hopkins fight, but gets to his feet, touting that granite chin and fast recovery he is known for. Joe fends off Roy to end the round on his feet. The recovery was assisted because Jones did'nt just pounce on Joe as soon as he got up. Jones wins this round big by 2 points.
In between 5-6
Joe goes back to the corner and Enzo lets him have it properly, shouting that they did not come all this way to have him lolly-gag out there and that he needs to step up the workrate in an attempt to wear Roy down. Roy goes back to his corner smiling. Joe is slightly shocked and discouraged with a few red spots now present on his usually clear face.
Round 6
Joe comes out with something to prove after being embarrassed in the last round. Joe turns up the workrate, but not like the Lacy fight, he know that he could be hit with something unexpectedly. Joe fights in and out as Roy is content on going back in the gaurd, allowing Calzaghe to push him to the ropes now and again. Calzaghe eventually pulls a Manfredo flurry as Jones is on the ropes. Jones comes straight up the middle with a solidly landed uppercut that buckles Joe , who falls to his hands and knees. Joe gets up but is clearly still hurt. Jones goes straight in and flurries with hard combined shots to make a statement and the assigned referee stops the fight to the fans delight. Jones has done the unthinkable and regained the lineal light heavy champinionship at 39 years of age by devastating KO.
Notable:
This is my prediction, even if alot think it is farfetched. I may eat alot of crow if Jones does not make it happen, but I just don't see Joe being able to dominate this fight with the workrate alone . In my opinion, Jones should be favored based on speed, craftiness and accuracy, not to mention size. Joe is not ready for a real light heavyweight punch, in my opinion and will be in a little over his head, even at this point in his career. Afterall folks, styles make the fights.
I will repost after the fight when we see who's prediction is closer. -end
This prediction is a long time coming and is also posted in my personal blog. Feel free to post there as well, if you like.
Before I get started, please understand that I have the utmost respect for Joe Calzaghe and his camp and have been very impressed with the way they have been acting since in the states. I wish the best for Joe even though i have been really hard on him in the buildup to this fight with my all-time favorite pugilist, Roy Jones. I was rooting for Joe in every other fight I have seen him in prior to now, including against B-hop. I think Joe has been an exceptional champion, obviously, and has really stepped it up in the final stages of his career in which a win over Jones is a great way to cap it off.
Unfortunately though, I do not think Calzaghe will retire undefeated. My detailed fight prediction follows.
Round 1
Joe and Roy will come out to the center of the ring more reluctant than probably expected, especially on Calzaghe's part. Joe will settle in and throw a few winging, fast combos that really dont do much while Roy uses this time to get used to Joe's handspeed and style. Joe will be kinda stunned at the speed of the punches from Jones , but will pick up on that in short order. Before the first round closes, Joe will be moving a little but will have realized that this is no old man he is fighting, but a motivated former lineal champ. Round one is pretty even, but goes to Joe because he did more moving and connected more than Roy.
Round 2.
Jones starts a little faster to further gain Joe's respect because he has sensed that Joe realized that this was no cake walk. Joe moves well and gets out of the way of a few punches and gets tagged by a couple as well. Calzaghe throws back and the punches are mostly blocked and a few get in to the body to no affect. They go back and forth and Jones begins to show that he is bigger and stronger while easily moving Joe in and out of range. Jones feels the crowd and showboats a little, but Joe counters that with a little bravado of his own. Usually this happens later in the fight, but not with these two men and not on this night. Round 2 goes to Jones on connecting with more meaningful punches.
Round 3
Calzaghe is more willing to let his hands go because Roy seemed to gain some momentum in the second and he has not been hit too hard up until this point. Roy is okay moving forward into Joe using his weight and reflexes to pick off punches, etc... Calzaghe lands a few good shots that halfway connect to the head and a few body shots, but little damage is done. Roy is content to throw far fewer punches, but they are sharp and mostly hit the mark. Joe starts to get the picture about the weight and the power difference, even when blocking those shots. Round 3 goes to Calzaghe off of workrate.
Round 4
Joe comes out in a hurry, throwing alot of shots and connecting with a few meaningful ones. Roy is backed up and envites Joe to keep that up. Calzaghe does just that and is caught with a glancing uppercut that resets the pace. Joe feels the distinct difference in power and the speed of the punches that are coming back at him and backs off for a little bit, knowing that he is being timed. Roy moves forward and throws a combination that resembles the Roy that beat Woods in 2002. The fans are happy to see such sport and cheer ragingly for Jones to press the action. Roy does just that and hurts Joe with a body shot , but Joe is tough and decides to wing em' while the round comes to a close. Jones has won that round by effective punching but was out-thrown and landed.
Round 5
This round marks the turning point in the fight. Jones starts to time Joe more easily with the punches coming back from Joe being his defense. Roy does mostly covering up, but lands in between Joes shots, slowing Joe back down. Roy lands a few telling body punches and gets Joe thinking again. They both flurry and Roy wins the speed battle but lets off the gas before Calzaghe does, with his massive workrate. Joe puts Jones back in the ropes and goes in for the kill. Roy is okay with this, since he is still rested at this point. Calzaghe comes in and is caught with a hard right hand in between punches. Joe hangs on because he feels that one. Roy moves around the hold, knowing the straight right started to hurt Joe. Roy lands a clean combination ending in an uppercut and dropping Calzaghe in the process. Joe is visibly more stunned than he was in the Hopkins fight, but gets to his feet, touting that granite chin and fast recovery he is known for. Joe fends off Roy to end the round on his feet. The recovery was assisted because Jones did'nt just pounce on Joe as soon as he got up. Jones wins this round big by 2 points.
In between 5-6
Joe goes back to the corner and Enzo lets him have it properly, shouting that they did not come all this way to have him lolly-gag out there and that he needs to step up the workrate in an attempt to wear Roy down. Roy goes back to his corner smiling. Joe is slightly shocked and discouraged with a few red spots now present on his usually clear face.
Round 6
Joe comes out with something to prove after being embarrassed in the last round. Joe turns up the workrate, but not like the Lacy fight, he know that he could be hit with something unexpectedly. Joe fights in and out as Roy is content on going back in the gaurd, allowing Calzaghe to push him to the ropes now and again. Calzaghe eventually pulls a Manfredo flurry as Jones is on the ropes. Jones comes straight up the middle with a solidly landed uppercut that buckles Joe , who falls to his hands and knees. Joe gets up but is clearly still hurt. Jones goes straight in and flurries with hard combined shots to make a statement and the assigned referee stops the fight to the fans delight. Jones has done the unthinkable and regained the lineal light heavy champinionship at 39 years of age by devastating KO.
Notable:
This is my prediction, even if alot think it is farfetched. I may eat alot of crow if Jones does not make it happen, but I just don't see Joe being able to dominate this fight with the workrate alone . In my opinion, Jones should be favored based on speed, craftiness and accuracy, not to mention size. Joe is not ready for a real light heavyweight punch, in my opinion and will be in a little over his head, even at this point in his career. Afterall folks, styles make the fights.
I will repost after the fight when we see who's prediction is closer. -end
This prediction is a long time coming and is also posted in my personal blog. Feel free to post there as well, if you like.
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