Pavlik will be exposed by Hopkins!

[Stickman]

Oh you're going with that route huh? "I'm old as ****, so naturally I'm smarter." Rather than making a 3 paragraph post bragging about being the days in 'nam, you could have cited some reasoning for your prediction. For example, hopkins getting hurt or knocked out by Pavlik is laughable because Pavlik is too slow to land anything of substance on BHop. Granted, his speed is improving and he has been landing shorter punches, he's not fast enough to chase Hopkins around the ring and deal with the lateral movement. Also, like Hopkins said, a man that actually did get wiser over the years, Pavlik doesn't throw all 65+ punches a round with mustard. Most of them are range finders or shorter power shots without knockout power to break down his opponent and be consistently scoring. This is where Pavlik can win. If he is active enough to keep touching Bernard, judges will score that over Bernard's spoiling. Pavlik will probably be afraid to show those real big shots, because when Kelly throws the right hand meant to kill, he tends to leave it out there too long, and Hopkins even at 43, will do him in as he did Echols for that mistake. If you want to throw 65 punches a round, you're leaving yourself open to 65 counters. Even Gary Lockett was able to time Pav with counters the few times he tried, for that short ass fight. Even Calzaghe's punch output dropped against Hopkins than what he normally thows, and he throws very fast unorthodox punches(slaps) from odd angles that are much harder to see than Kelly's punches. He was barely able to find Hopkins much at all that night. What makes you think that Pavlik, who even when not facing a counter puncher doesn't throw nearly as many punches as calzaghe, will land one of those devastating punches that his worked against his previous opposition?

No, Kid, you went that route when you called me "dumb". As for posting my reasoning, I did that before, though I'm not sure if it was on this thread or not.....Looking back just now, I see that it wasn't, so you have every right to question my reasoning, but not my intellect and experience. Rather than act your age and immediately consider any opinion not agreeing with yours "dumb" you might've considered an approach akin to "Sorry pal, I just don't get why you believe that. Mind explaining it to me? 'Cause I don't see how in hell that's ever going to happen." Get my point? Now of course you're not going to believe me when I tell you that you got from me what you were asking for, but then if you refer to my first response you'll see that you know everything, so you can't possibly be wrong. And don't go thinking I'm being rude to you again, I'm just telling it to you straight. I have kids near your age and I know what you're thinking. Hell, it wasn't so long ago that I was thinking the same thing, but I grew out of it alot quicker than you will simply because my superiors in the military never tolerated that bull****.

Now then, you asked my reasoning, and again, I do apologize for not realizing which thread I'd stated it on; here's my thinking....

Pavlik, for all his faults (and there are several) has 3 things that I believe give him a solid chance of stopping Hopkins.

Stiff, and frequently used jab.
Size/reach/strength
Stamina (the kid is in fantastic shape, always ready to swing for 12).

His jab is going to keep Hopkins from tying up, that's the most important. Hopkins will have to stay on his bike for most of the fight. It'll also wear him out as it connects, and it will connect quite a bit because of the second thing I mentioned (reach).

Secondly, his reach will help prevent Hopkins from countering easily, and his reach, coupled with the jab will help keep Bernard outside where Pavlik can handle him easier. And even when Hopkins does manage to tie up, Pavlik is bigger, stronger, and should be able to muscle Bernard around easily, wearing him out that much faster.

Third, and most important, is Pavlik's stamina. He's young, in fantastic shape, and I don't think Hopkins can keep moving for even half the fight at the pace he'll need. And since he won't be able to tie up and get breaks (because of Kelly's jab, and his reach and his strength) he's going to gas quick.

One other thing I haven't mentioned is Pavlik's body work. He'll be going downstairs alot, probably following his jab with hooks and straight rights to the body which will add to Hopkins' troubles, just wearing him down that much faster. Pavlik will certainly catch some counters doing this, but Hopkins' steam will leave his shots probably by the 4th, maybe sooner.

Now I'm not saying it'll definitely end in a stoppage by Pavlik, but I think the probability is well over 60% that it will. Still, Hopkins is cagey and might find a way to shut Pavlik down somehow (if there's a way I can't see it), but there's no way I can see Hopkins winning this fight at all. Best case scenario, he loses yet another decision and bitches about being robbed for another month. Worst case, he gets stopped by a body shot before the end of the 6th.

Hopkins is not going to stop Pavlik. Bernard has never been a big puncher, at least not when facing someone his own size, and Pavlik is much bigger and stronger and I'd be surprised if Bernard does much more than get Kelly's attention with a flush straight right. It's possible, I suppose, for a few hard uppercuts followed by a couple of left hooks landed by Bernard to stun, or even drop Kelly, but I don't think a straight right will do it. If it does, it'll most likely just be a flash KD, without Pavlik actually being hurt, mostly just that he didn't see it coming and surprised him. Sort of like Calzaghe in the first.

And like I said before...I'm not infallable. I'm good at calling fights, not perfect, and sometimes I blow it big-time. Not often, but it happens. But I try to think my way through a fight several times just to make sure it doesn't happen often.

Now then, no hard feelings, kid. I'm sure you didn't intend any serious insult, I think your remark was mostly due to thoughtlessness and your callow youth, but I don't appreciate being called "dumb". Question my reasoning all you like, disagree with me vehemently, hell you can even think I'm bat**** crazy, and I'll never hold it against you, so long as you do so in a civil and polite manner (and I will always treat you the same). Do otherwise and I'll either completely ignore you, or respond in kind, depending on my whim.

[alt-mellow]

^^^^^^^^^^ I HATE THOSE kind of POST.. ****.. MAKE SOME BULLETS... with your points... dont write a novel...

[Stickman]

^^^^^^^^^^ I HATE THOSE kind of POST.. ****.. MAKE SOME BULLETS... with your points... dont write a novel...

Well ****, buddy, nobody said you had to read it. As I understand things around here, the reading of any (and all) posts is voluntary.

[IMDAZED]

No, Kid, you went that route when you called me "dumb". As for posting my reasoning, I did that before, though I'm not sure if it was on this thread or not.....Looking back just now, I see that it wasn't, so you have every right to question my reasoning, but not my intellect and experience. Rather than act your age and immediately consider any opinion not agreeing with yours "dumb" you might've considered an approach akin to "Sorry pal, I just don't get why you believe that. Mind explaining it to me? 'Cause I don't see how in hell that's ever going to happen." Get my point? Now of course you're not going to believe me when I tell you that you got from me what you were asking for, but then if you refer to my first response you'll see that you know everything, so you can't possibly be wrong. And don't go thinking I'm being rude to you again, I'm just telling it to you straight. I have kids near your age and I know what you're thinking. Hell, it wasn't so long ago that I was thinking the same thing, but I grew out of it alot quicker than you will simply because my superiors in the military never tolerated that bull****.

Now then, you asked my reasoning, and again, I do apologize for not realizing which thread I'd stated it on; here's my thinking....

Pavlik, for all his faults (and there are several) has 3 things that I believe give him a solid chance of stopping Hopkins.

Stiff, and frequently used jab.
Size/reach/strength
Stamina (the kid is in fantastic shape, always ready to swing for 12).

His jab is going to keep Hopkins from tying up, that's the most important. Hopkins will have to stay on his bike for most of the fight. It'll also wear him out as it connects, and it will connect quite a bit because of the second thing I mentioned (reach).

Secondly, his reach will help prevent Hopkins from countering easily, and his reach, coupled with the jab will help keep Bernard outside where Pavlik can handle him easier. And even when Hopkins does manage to tie up, Pavlik is bigger, stronger, and should be able to muscle Bernard around easily, wearing him out that much faster.

Third, and most important, is Pavlik's stamina. He's young, in fantastic shape, and I don't think Hopkins can keep moving for even half the fight at the pace he'll need. And since he won't be able to tie up and get breaks (because of Kelly's jab, and his reach and his strength) he's going to gas quick.

One other thing I haven't mentioned is Pavlik's body work. He'll be going downstairs alot, probably following his jab with hooks and straight rights to the body which will add to Hopkins' troubles, just wearing him down that much faster. Pavlik will certainly catch some counters doing this, but Hopkins' steam will leave his shots probably by the 4th, maybe sooner.

Now I'm not saying it'll definitely end in a stoppage by Pavlik, but I think the probability is well over 60% that it will. Still, Hopkins is cagey and might find a way to shut Pavlik down somehow (if there's a way I can't see it), but there's no way I can see Hopkins winning this fight at all. Best case scenario, he loses yet another decision and bitches about being robbed for another month. Worst case, he gets stopped by a body shot before the end of the 6th.

Hopkins is not going to stop Pavlik. Bernard has never been a big puncher, at least not when facing someone his own size, and Pavlik is much bigger and stronger and I'd be surprised if Bernard does much more than get Kelly's attention with a flush straight right. It's possible, I suppose, for a few hard uppercuts followed by a couple of left hooks landed by Bernard to stun, or even drop Kelly, but I don't think a straight right will do it. If it does, it'll most likely just be a flash KD, without Pavlik actually being hurt, mostly just that he didn't see it coming and surprised him. Sort of like Calzaghe in the first.

And like I said before...I'm not infallable. I'm good at calling fights, not perfect, and sometimes I blow it big-time. Not often, but it happens. But I try to think my way through a fight several times just to make sure it doesn't happen often.

Now then, no hard feelings, kid. I'm sure you didn't intend any serious insult, I think your remark was mostly due to thoughtlessness and your callow youth, but I don't appreciate being called "dumb". Question my reasoning all you like, disagree with me vehemently, hell you can even think I'm bat**** crazy, and I'll never hold it against you, so long as you do so in a civil and polite manner (and I will always treat you the same). Do otherwise and I'll either completely ignore you, or respond in kind, depending on my whim.

Really nice post. Don't necessarily agree with everything but the premise is the same and you lay your points out well. Good ****.

[Spiegelo]

No, Kid, you went that route when you called me "dumb". As for posting my reasoning, I did that before, though I'm not sure if it was on this thread or not.....Looking back just now, I see that it wasn't, so you have every right to question my reasoning, but not my intellect and experience. Rather than act your age and immediately consider any opinion not agreeing with yours "dumb" you might've considered an approach akin to "Sorry pal, I just don't get why you believe that. Mind explaining it to me? 'Cause I don't see how in hell that's ever going to happen." Get my point? Now of course you're not going to believe me when I tell you that you got from me what you were asking for, but then if you refer to my first response you'll see that you know everything, so you can't possibly be wrong. And don't go thinking I'm being rude to you again, I'm just telling it to you straight. I have kids near your age and I know what you're thinking. Hell, it wasn't so long ago that I was thinking the same thing, but I grew out of it alot quicker than you will simply because my superiors in the military never tolerated that bull****.

Now then, you asked my reasoning, and again, I do apologize for not realizing which thread I'd stated it on; here's my thinking....

Pavlik, for all his faults (and there are several) has 3 things that I believe give him a solid chance of stopping Hopkins.

Stiff, and frequently used jab.
Size/reach/strength
Stamina (the kid is in fantastic shape, always ready to swing for 12).

His jab is going to keep Hopkins from tying up, that's the most important. Hopkins will have to stay on his bike for most of the fight. It'll also wear him out as it connects, and it will connect quite a bit because of the second thing I mentioned (reach).

Secondly, his reach will help prevent Hopkins from countering easily, and his reach, coupled with the jab will help keep Bernard outside where Pavlik can handle him easier. And even when Hopkins does manage to tie up, Pavlik is bigger, stronger, and should be able to muscle Bernard around easily, wearing him out that much faster.

Third, and most important, is Pavlik's stamina. He's young, in fantastic shape, and I don't think Hopkins can keep moving for even half the fight at the pace he'll need. And since he won't be able to tie up and get breaks (because of Kelly's jab, and his reach and his strength) he's going to gas quick.

One other thing I haven't mentioned is Pavlik's body work. He'll be going downstairs alot, probably following his jab with hooks and straight rights to the body which will add to Hopkins' troubles, just wearing him down that much faster. Pavlik will certainly catch some counters doing this, but Hopkins' steam will leave his shots probably by the 4th, maybe sooner.

Now I'm not saying it'll definitely end in a stoppage by Pavlik, but I think the probability is well over 60% that it will. Still, Hopkins is cagey and might find a way to shut Pavlik down somehow (if there's a way I can't see it), but there's no way I can see Hopkins winning this fight at all. Best case scenario, he loses yet another decision and bitches about being robbed for another month. Worst case, he gets stopped by a body shot before the end of the 6th.

Hopkins is not going to stop Pavlik. Bernard has never been a big puncher, at least not when facing someone his own size, and Pavlik is much bigger and stronger and I'd be surprised if Bernard does much more than get Kelly's attention with a flush straight right. It's possible, I suppose, for a few hard uppercuts followed by a couple of left hooks landed by Bernard to stun, or even drop Kelly, but I don't think a straight right will do it. If it does, it'll most likely just be a flash KD, without Pavlik actually being hurt, mostly just that he didn't see it coming and surprised him. Sort of like Calzaghe in the first.

And like I said before...I'm not infallable. I'm good at calling fights, not perfect, and sometimes I blow it big-time. Not often, but it happens. But I try to think my way through a fight several times just to make sure it doesn't happen often.

Now then, no hard feelings, kid. I'm sure you didn't intend any serious insult, I think your remark was mostly due to thoughtlessness and your callow youth, but I don't appreciate being called "dumb". Question my reasoning all you like, disagree with me vehemently, hell you can even think I'm bat**** crazy, and I'll never hold it against you, so long as you do so in a civil and polite manner (and I will always treat you the same). Do otherwise and I'll either completely ignore you, or respond in kind, depending on my whim.

I just think it's insane to think Pav has the ability to KO Hopkins. That straight right hand goes right over Kelly's left hand, and Hopkins doesn't expose enough of his face to get his head snapped by the jab. Occasionally Winky was able to annoy Hopkins with his world famous jab, but even that was quickly answered and neutralized. What chance does Kelly have to keep his distance from Bernard with it. He will move side to side, in and out. Kelly doesn't have the experience to keep him away. He does have a good jab and a good work rate which will help slow down Hopkins, but it will by no means prevent Hopkins from doing what he wants. The only question is will Hopkins be able to throw enough to keep the rounds competitive, and if he does, will it last for at least 8 rounds. If so, then I have a big W goin down for Hopkins. There's a good chance Kelly will take the decision, but he doesn't have the inside tools, speed, nor the devastating power at 175 to hurt Hopkins who has throughout his entire career showed his durability. Predicting Hopkins getting knocked out is the same as predicting a KO against mayweather by anyone. A scenario everyone wants to see, but is never going to happen. If you want to bet on Pav by KO, go ahead. I'm just saying you should be saving your money for them adult diapers, you'll probably be needing them soon.

[Jambo boy]

I agree with the thread starter, I think Bernard will out muscle pavlik.

[WelshDevilRob]

Pavlik win for me. Hopkins just doesn't do enough and Pavliks height and reach will be key. I can see Hopkins going the distance and trying to smother and counterpunch but it won't be enough.

[βetamax]

I think it should be a close fight but I haven't picked a winner yet...and I'm a Hopkins fan. I'll say that I don't see Pavlik stopping Hopkins. He didn't take out Zertuche, Miranda, and Taylor (couldn't in the second fight) until the later mid rounds, mainly from accumulation, and these guys aren't exactly defensive geniuses. Hopkins defense is better suited for Pavlik's offense, in my opinion. The similarities between Taylor and Calzaghe is that they both let off quick flurries that Hopkins was unable to keep up with and it looked good to the naked eye even though a majority was not landing. Calzaghe got A LOT more credit than he deserved with landed shots. I've seen the Hopkins-Calzaghe fight more times than I care to admit, even watching the exchanges in slow motion and it was really amazing just how little Calzaghe was able to touch him. Even in the later round when Hopkins gassed he was still able to be effective defensively. Another thing to consider is that Pavlik of course is moving up in weight and Hopkins is just as big minus an inch or so in height. According to boxrec they have the same reach as well.

[alt-mellow]

Well ****, buddy, nobody said you had to read it. As I understand things around here, the reading of any (and all) posts is voluntary.

true... it was just a post...relax. and as you say. .everyone has the right to post whatever...

im not saying its wrong or write.. .but a lil bit painfull... anyway... i go with kelly in this one....

[Spiegelo]

I think it should be a close fight but I haven't picked a winner yet...and I'm a Hopkins fan. I'll say that I don't see Pavlik stopping Hopkins. He didn't take out Zertuche, Miranda, and Taylor (couldn't in the second fight) until the later mid rounds, mainly from accumulation, and these guys aren't exactly defensive geniuses. Hopkins defense is better suited for Pavlik's offense, in my opinion. The similarities between Taylor and Calzaghe is that they both let off quick flurries that Hopkins was unable to keep up with and it looked good to the naked eye even though a majority was not landing. Calzaghe got A LOT more credit than he deserved with landed shots. I've seen the Hopkins-Calzaghe fight more times than I care to admit, even watching the exchanges in slow motion and it was really amazing just how little Calzaghe was able to touch him. Even in the later round when Hopkins gassed he was still able to be effective defensively. Another thing to consider is that Pavlik of course is moving up in weight and Hopkins is just as big minus an inch or so in height. According to boxrec they have the same reach as well.

Thank you! I get flamed by all these fangirls for talking about how little calzaghe was able to find Hopkins.
"YOU'RE BIASED PHILLY TALK MEANS **** ALL!"
The difference between me and these other people, is that I have watched the fight several times and observed the punches that weren't landing while jim lampley while shouting ecstatically over joe 'destroying' Hopkins. Anyway, even though I believe Hopkins did enough to win, I can still see why the decision went to Joe, so I don't complain too much about it.