Boxing Simulator Results and Predictions

[revs1227]

cotto mayweather ...hatton witter

[Ryn0]

I've been messing around with a piece of software, "Title Bout Championship", which essentially amounts to a boxing simulator. It is incredibly intricate, with data sets for most major boxers modern and historical (and subsets for different phases of their career/weight classes). It even claims to adjust for specific referees, biased judging (common judges have their own data sets),conditioning, cutmen, trainers etc.

In short, its fun. And it seems far more accurate than I expected.

Here are some of the match ups I tested. (note that the Ko/decision numbers are only for the fighter who won the majority of bouts)

Pavlik Vs Taylor 100 bouts (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime")

Pavlik won 61.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.90
Decisions: 14
Unanimous Decisions: 12
Split Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 47 (6.68)
Knockouts: 18 (6.33)
Technical Knockouts: 29 (6.90)

Note: If Emmanuel Steward is selected as Taylor's trainer, as opposed to "generic", Taylor wins 1 percent more of the bouts (lol, I'm not sure what to take away from that)

Note: If Steve Smoger is selected as ref, nothing changes except there are fewer stoppages and more decisions.

Vazquez Vs. Marquez 100 bouts -adjusted for Marquez moving up in weight (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime[s]")

Vazquez won 68.00% of the matches(Marquez wins a slight majority of bouts if test is run weight neutral-ie without accounting for Marquez moving up in weight).
Average rounds for wins: 7.38
Decisions: 13
Unanimous Decisions: 9
Split Decisions: 3
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 56 (6.30)
Knockouts: 27 (6.41)
Technical Knockouts: 29 (6.21)
Referee's Decision: 21 (6.29)
Due to Cuts: 7 (6.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (6.00)

Hopkins Vs. Wright 100 bouts(Hopkins set as LHW POST-PRIME, Winky set at as a middle weight going up to LH.Used default setting for winky otherwise-not sure if thats "prime" or not).

Hopkins won 53.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.62
Decisions: 38
Unanimous Decisions: 24
Split Decisions: 9
Majority Decisions: 5
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 15 (7.13)
Knockouts: 3 (5.00)
Technical Knockouts: 12 (7.67)
Referee's Decision: 3 (7.33)
Due to Cuts: 7 (8.29)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (6.00)

I also tested some upcoming bouts:

Miguel Cotto vs Alfonso Gomez 100 bouts. (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime[s]")

Cotto won 86.00% of the matches.-perhaps this is rather charitable to Gomez?
Average rounds for wins: 9.14
Decisions: 34
Unanimous Decisions: 28
Split Decisions: 4
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 52 (7.27)
Knockouts: 22 (7.23)
Technical Knockouts: 30 (7.30)
Referee's Decision: 24 (6.88)
Due to Swelling: 1 (6.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (9.60)

Antonio Tarver Vs. Clinton Woods 100 bouts

On most settings, Tarver wins the vast majority of the bouts. However, if we set Tarver's career at "end" (ie a condition worse than "post-prime") he wins only 52 percent of them.

If Tarver's career is set at "end", and his condition set as "aging and inconsistent" these are the results:

Woods won 56.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 9.48
Decisions: 24
Unanimous Decisions: 17
Split Decisions: 5
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 32 (7.72)
Knockouts: 23 (7.78)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (7.56)
Referee's Decision: 2 (9.50)
Due to Cuts: 6 (6.83)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (8.00)
4.00% of the matches have been draws.


interesting.

I might run Hopkins/Calzaghe later if anyone is interested....or perhaps some other fights.

any thoughts?

how do u do it for every 100 bouts ? i con only get one bout, It's a bit messed up as well Floyd Mayweather beat Ray Robinson in UD at welterweight and managed to KD hm 3 times.

[pfcwintergreen]

cotto mayweather ...hatton witter

Ok, I tried these out.

Cotto vs Mayweather Jr 100 bouts -both fighters set to prime WW
Cotto won 21.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.10
Decisions: 5
Unanimous Decisions: 4
Split Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 16 (5.56)
Knockouts: 7 (4.86)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (6.11)
Referee's Decision: 6 (5.83)
Due to Cuts: 2 (7.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (6.00)
Mayweather Jr won 79.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.57
Decisions: 22
Unanimous Decisions: 18
Split Decisions: 3
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 57 (7.25)
Knockouts: 21 (8.05)
Technical Knockouts: 36 (6.78)
Referee's Decision: 31 (6.87)
Due to Cuts: 5 (6.20)
There were no draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.26

and..

Ricky Hatton vs Junior Witter-both fighters set to prime JWW
Hatton won 89.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.98
Decisions: 31
Unanimous Decisions: 27
Split Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 58 (7.36)
Knockouts: 23 (8.04)
Technical Knockouts: 35 (6.91)
Referee's Decision: 28 (6.64)
Due to Swelling: 1 (9.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (7.40)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (10.00)
Witter won 9.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.56
Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 8 (7.00)
Technical Knockouts: 8 (7.00)
Referee's Decision: 1 (8.00)
Due to Cuts: 7 (6.86)
2.00% of the matches have been draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.82


Also, I redid Hopkins v Calzaghe, except I set them both to "post prime" this time.

Calzaghe vs Hopkins 100 bouts -both set to post prime LHW
Calzaghe won 60.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.35
Decisions: 39
Unanimous Decisions: 33
Split Decisions: 2
Majority Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 21 (7.29)
Knockouts: 10 (6.30)
Technical Knockouts: 11 (8.18)
Referee's Decision: 4 (5.50)
Due to Cuts: 5 (10.40)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (8.00)
Hopkins won 34.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.91
Decisions: 27
Unanimous Decisions: 24
Split Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 7 (7.29)
Knockouts: 1 (11.00)
Technical Knockouts: 6 (6.67)
Referee's Decision: 4 (7.25)
Due to Cuts: 2 (5.50)
6.00% of the matches have been draws.

[Ryn0]

Ok, I tried these out.

Cotto vs Mayweather Jr 100 bouts -both fighters set to prime WW
Cotto won 21.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.10
Decisions: 5
Unanimous Decisions: 4
Split Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 16 (5.56)
Knockouts: 7 (4.86)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (6.11)
Referee's Decision: 6 (5.83)
Due to Cuts: 2 (7.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (6.00)
Mayweather Jr won 79.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.57
Decisions: 22
Unanimous Decisions: 18
Split Decisions: 3
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 57 (7.25)
Knockouts: 21 (8.05)
Technical Knockouts: 36 (6.78)
Referee's Decision: 31 (6.87)
Due to Cuts: 5 (6.20)
There were no draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.26

and..

Ricky Hatton vs Junior Witter-both fighters set to prime JWW
Hatton won 89.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.98
Decisions: 31
Unanimous Decisions: 27
Split Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 58 (7.36)
Knockouts: 23 (8.04)
Technical Knockouts: 35 (6.91)
Referee's Decision: 28 (6.64)
Due to Swelling: 1 (9.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (7.40)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (10.00)
Witter won 9.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.56
Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 8 (7.00)
Technical Knockouts: 8 (7.00)
Referee's Decision: 1 (8.00)
Due to Cuts: 7 (6.86)
2.00% of the matches have been draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.82


Also, I redid Hopkins v Calzaghe, except I set them both to "post prime" this time.

Calzaghe vs Hopkins 100 bouts -both set to post prime LHW
Calzaghe won 60.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.35
Decisions: 39
Unanimous Decisions: 33
Split Decisions: 2
Majority Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 21 (7.29)
Knockouts: 10 (6.30)
Technical Knockouts: 11 (8.18)
Referee's Decision: 4 (5.50)
Due to Cuts: 5 (10.40)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (8.00)
Hopkins won 34.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.91
Decisions: 27
Unanimous Decisions: 24
Split Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 7 (7.29)
Knockouts: 1 (11.00)
Technical Knockouts: 6 (6.67)
Referee's Decision: 4 (7.25)
Due to Cuts: 2 (5.50)
6.00% of the matches have been draws.

how do you set it to do 100 bouts ? i cant seem to find it ?

[xfiles]

Do Hopkins-Hagler prime for prime!

[pfcwintergreen]

how do you set it to do 100 bouts ? i cant seem to find it ?

Do you have the latest version (2.5)? If not, I'm not sure you can do multiple bouts.

But this is how you do it:

In the top right corner of the main screen there is a tab called "scheduler". Click it.

On the next screen click "add". This will allow you to set up the bout as you see fit. Once you've done so, click apply at the bottom of the screen.

You will now be back in the scheduler screen. At the far right of the screen there is field labeled repeats. Simply type in the number of repeats you'd like and then click start at the bottom of the screen.

[ElGranLuchador]

yeah i know about this bull****. one clown was so serious about it, he made a stimulated match between tyson and ken norton in a 15 round fight. anyways the machine had norton winning 11 rounds, with tyson commiting 12FOULS, and with norton being the ultimate winner after taking tyson chin punches for 15 round stretch. it was on another site, i got so worked up and basically cussed the guy out, and they almost banned me lol. i just cant take this bull****, and the thing was the guy was actually taking it all serious. yeah like norton would survive with a puncher like tyson for 15 rounds. and i dont know how the **** a fighter would fight with 12 fouls and not get disqualified. games are bull****

wtf everyone knows norton beats tyson
that tyson guy had no heart

[pfcwintergreen]

Do Hopkins-Hagler prime for prime!

Christ, I need a life. I've been sitting on my ass running boxing simulations all night.....last one for now:

Bernard Hopkins vs Marvin Hagler 100 bouts- both set to prime
Hopkins won 36.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.36
Decisions: 23
Unanimous Decisions: 12
Split Decisions: 6
Majority Decisions: 5
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 13 (7.46)
Knockouts: 2 (5.50)
Technical Knockouts: 11 (7.82)
Referee's Decision: 5 (7.40)
Due to Cuts: 6 (8.17)
Hagler won 61.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 9.31
Decisions: 24
Unanimous Decisions: 21
Split Decisions: 2
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 37 (7.57)
Knockouts: 9 (8.56)
Technical Knockouts: 28 (7.25)
Referee's Decision: 19 (7.05)
Due to Swelling: 2 (9.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (8.20)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (5.00)
3.00% of the matches have been draws.
Average number of rounds: 9.77

[sparked_85]

Ricky Hatton vs Junior Witter-both fighters set to prime JWW
Hatton won 89.00% of the matches.

damn......lol.

Why so high?

seems unreal.

[Motofan]

Ok, I tried these out.

Cotto vs Mayweather Jr 100 bouts -both fighters set to prime WW
Cotto won 21.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.10
Decisions: 5
Unanimous Decisions: 4
Split Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 16 (5.56)
Knockouts: 7 (4.86)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (6.11)
Referee's Decision: 6 (5.83)
Due to Cuts: 2 (7.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (6.00)
Mayweather Jr won 79.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.57
Decisions: 22
Unanimous Decisions: 18
Split Decisions: 3
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 57 (7.25)
Knockouts: 21 (8.05)
Technical Knockouts: 36 (6.78)
Referee's Decision: 31 (6.87)
Due to Cuts: 5 (6.20)
There were no draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.26

and..

Ricky Hatton vs Junior Witter-both fighters set to prime JWW
Hatton won 89.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 8.98
Decisions: 31
Unanimous Decisions: 27
Split Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 58 (7.36)
Knockouts: 23 (8.04)
Technical Knockouts: 35 (6.91)
Referee's Decision: 28 (6.64)
Due to Swelling: 1 (9.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (7.40)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (10.00)
Witter won 9.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.56
Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 8 (7.00)
Technical Knockouts: 8 (7.00)
Referee's Decision: 1 (8.00)
Due to Cuts: 7 (6.86)
2.00% of the matches have been draws.
Average number of rounds: 8.82


Also, I redid Hopkins v Calzaghe, except I set them both to "post prime" this time.

Calzaghe vs Hopkins 100 bouts -both set to post prime LHW
Calzaghe won 60.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.35
Decisions: 39
Unanimous Decisions: 33
Split Decisions: 2
Majority Decisions: 4
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 21 (7.29)
Knockouts: 10 (6.30)
Technical Knockouts: 11 (8.18)
Referee's Decision: 4 (5.50)
Due to Cuts: 5 (10.40)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (8.00)
Hopkins won 34.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.91
Decisions: 27
Unanimous Decisions: 24
Split Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 7 (7.29)
Knockouts: 1 (11.00)
Technical Knockouts: 6 (6.67)
Referee's Decision: 4 (7.25)
Due to Cuts: 2 (5.50)
6.00% of the matches have been draws.

It's right about all of these fights IMO.